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Samuel Charap Profile picture
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2 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Have to agree with @KofmanMichael here. Moscow is being rather clear that it is interested in something very concrete. And way beyond what Western capitals could deliver even if they wanted to do so.
see Lavrov today mid.ru/ru/foreign_pol…
particularly this -> Image
not good.

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More from @scharap

Samuel Charap Profile picture
3 Dec
Thanks to @IlvesToomas and David Kramer for taking the time to respond to my @POLITICOMag piece. A thread. #Ukraine #Russia 1/13
politico.com/news/magazine/…
Here's their reply. 2/13 politico.com/news/magazine/…
it's important to note two analytical disagreements. 1) They say Putin could be bluffing. No one knows for sure, but given the gravity of the military build-up and the USG concern about Russian plans, I think we should assume he's not bluffing. 3/13 Image
Read 13 tweets
Samuel Charap Profile picture
21 Nov
So since I've garnered a number of new followers this weekend, I thought I'd follow up on the substance of the discussion around my @POLITICOMag article. A thread.
politico.com/news/magazine/…
Folks (particularly those hyperventilating) should recognize that this is a question about means, not ends. Everyone wants to avoid a major war in Europe, right?
If so, the question is how. Some believe that if we only whack the Russians upside the head (or threaten to do so) either via sanctions, military assistance to UA, etc., enough, then they'll reverse course, send everyone home and apologize for the trouble.
Read 17 tweets
Samuel Charap Profile picture
20 Nov
Wanted to add a thread to the ongoing discussion in part sparked by this piece in today’s @POLITICOMag
I hope I’m wrong, but more and more signs including this @julianbarnes @nytimes story nytimes.com/2021/11/19/us/… suggest that #Russia is preparing for a major offensive
If that’s true, choices become very stark very quickly. Threatening consequences is important, but I haven’t seen anyone make a convincing case that the West is prepared to do what it takes to force #Russia to back down. So coercion alone is not going to be enough.
Read 9 tweets
Samuel Charap Profile picture
17 Oct 19
A THREAD on the findings of the @RANDCorporation publication I was privileged to lead: bit.ly/30WLdJP. First, note the 21 names on the cover representing 10 countries. Including @Jim_Dobbins @JyShapiro @Olesya_vArt @DrUlrichKuehn @GwendolynSasse @YPreiherman @Prieker1 1/
And a bunch of other folks not on twitter including two from Ukraine, two from Moldova, etc. This was a unique endeavor where we set out to find common ground among representatives of countries that do not get along well, to put it mildly. 2/
We agreed on a proposal that everyone could live with —even if no one was completely satisfied. The idea was to revise the regional order particularly as it concerns the "in-between states" so as to boost security, facilitate prosperity, and better deal w/conflicts 3/
Read 8 tweets

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