Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger made headlines by saying US chip subsidies should be for American firms, not foreign ones like TSMC or Samsung; then saying "Taiwan is not a stable place," due to the military threat (from China).
Thread 1/8 Chip Subsidies $INTC $TSM #semiconductors
2/8 Chip Subsidies
Gelsinger means the US$52 billion in subsidies for new US chip plants, called fabs, in the CHIPS for America Act, money Intel wants for its own new fabs. Fabs cost billions. Samsung is investing $17bln in a Texas fab; TSMC's Arizona fab is $12bln. $INTC $TSM
3/8 Chip Subsidies
TSMC Chairman Mark Liu responded by saying the subsidies should be for any new US fabs, and that if the money is only for US firms, it will hurt America’s ability to rebuild its semiconductor supply chain. $INTC $TSM $MU #semiconductors
4/8 Chip Subsidies
TSMC’s Liu is right. US subsidies should be open to foreign chip makers. It will take billions in direct investments to restore the US supply chain, which is why the subsidies are needed in the first place. Jobs and chip supply security are key. $INTC $TSM
5/8 Chip Subsidies
It’s worth remembering that US chip makers enjoy foreign subsidies. Micron operates 3 multi-billion $$ fabs in Taiwan, where it enjoys the same Taiwan government subsidies open to TSMC. $INTC $TSM $MU #semiconductors
6/8 Chip Subsidies
The Intel CEO's comments on Taiwan's stability are strange. 1. The threat from China is well known. 2. If Taiwan is so unstable, then why will Intel have its most advanced chips made there by TSMC?
$INTC $TSM #semiconductors
7/8 Chip Subsidies
No doubt the Intel CEO is talking his book and working hard to secure funding for his own fabs. That’s his job. Intel used to be the world leader in chip manufacturing. It’s under new leadership now and seeks to regain that title. $INTC #semiconductors
8/8 Chip Subsidies
US chip subsidies should be open. Openness and collaboration are the keys to chip industry success. The industry was born from democracy. It’s no accident that the most successful chip makers in the world are all in democracies. #semiconductors
9/8 Chip Subsidies
Tune in to next week's Tweet Storm: Why Communists Can’t Make Semiconductors. Spoiler: Because states that require secret police and controlled media are not good at the collaboration needed to succeed in the semiconductor industry. #semiconductors
10/8 Chip Subsidies
And the next Tweet Storm: Semiconductor Engineers are the new Rocket Scientists. Communist nations have never been successful at semiconductors, not the Soviet Union, not Communist China. But they can build rockets. Semiconductors are harder. #semiconductors
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TSMC on Japan fab: plans to build a specialty technology fab in Japan, subject to board approval. Japanese government supports the plan. Will build a 22-28nm process technology #semiconductor fab. Fab construction to begin in 2022, and mass production expected in 2024. $TSM
2/? TSMC 3Q Call
TSMC CEO CC Wei: We are confident we will retain our technology leadership. 2nm technology, density and performance will be the most competitive in 2025 and GAA structure is being considered, but won't say more today. (paraphrasing). $TSM
3/? TSMC 3Q Call
CEO CC Wei: "We are entering a period of higher structural growth" due to 5G, HPC and massive new demand for energy efficient computing, which will require leading edge technologies.
"We expect our capacity to remain tight in 2021 and throughout 2022."
$TSM
Taiwan newspapers are full of Apple stories as #AppleEvent looms (9/14 Tuesday) with expected #iPhone13 launch.
Thread #Apple 1/5
#Apple 2/5
Taiwan contract iPhone assembly firms Foxconn (Hon Hai) and Pegatron are working overtime to meet demand, media report, with Foxconn said to have hired more than 100,000 additional workers in Zhengzhou to meet production needs. $AAPL
#Apple 3/5
Foxconn (Hon Hai) is expected to remain the biggest iPhone assembler at 65%-70%, compared to Pegatron at 25%, mainly iPhone 13 and #iPhone13 mini, Taiwan media report, adding China's LuxShare Precision will assemble around 5% of iPhones this year.
Legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller tells a story of turning in his first report as a young analyst, very proud of his fundamental research, charts and analysis.
“This is useless,” said his boss. “What makes the stock go up and down?”
Thread 1/14
2/14 Benton Rules
That simple question made him change his entire approach:
“Thereafter, I focused my analysis on seeking to identify the factors that were strongly correlated to the stock’s price movement as opposed to looking at all the fundamentals.”
3/14 Benton Rules
In that spirit, here are the Rules for Technology Stocks set down by Dan Benton, when he was a top ranked PC analyst at Goldman Sachs (1988 – 1993). Much of it remains valid today.
IDC forecasts the 2021 #semiconductor market will grow 17.3% to US$545.0 billion led by phones, laptops, servers, automotive, smarthome, gaming, wearables and Wi-Fi, with increased memory prices.
The market will grow 4% in 2022 and 0.3% in 2023 to $568.4 bln.
TSMC thread 1/? - several non-financial notes of interest from TSMC's earnings call yesterday: $TSM #semiconductor
#2 TSMC in Japan $TSM
TSMC is doing due diligence now for a specialty technology wafer fab in Japan. No final decision yet.
Over 20 companies have joined the advanced chip packaging technology R&D initiative led by TSMC. The project is aimed at HPC (high performance computing).
#3 TSMC Arizona $TSM
TSMC expects 5nm production at the #Arizona fab to begin in the 1st quarter of 2024, but TSMC hopes it will start earlier. AND
“We do not rule out the possibility of a 2nd phase of expansion to meet our customers’ strong demand,” Chairman Mark Liu.