Here's the universal framework I use to keep my head and make money through nasty downturns. 👇
(thread)
My strategy for investing in altcoins is holding them, not trading them.
Everyone constantly posts their short-term technical analysis, flips, and trades. This is difficult to perform reliably/over time.
A better strategy: hold high conviction alts.
Don't sell them.
Your goal is to use crypto like a venture capitalist. Explore a basket of many smaller market cap projects (on average, they perform better than blue chips).
Let them go to zero or 100x.
Only a few in your portfolio have to succeed for you to outperform.
Have conviction in these assets. The crypto market is short-term irrational and greedy, making it hard to hold fundamentally strong assets.
Fortunately, these assets tend to perform incredibly well over time.
That's why research is vital. Don't be scared out of your positions.
Few understand conviction.
It should be developed BEFORE buying, not after.
Understand the asset, develop a thesis, make an investment. Then be convicted enough to hold it.
Don't 'develop conviction' after finding out your bags are shit.
Avoid buying shit in the first place.
ALLOCATION:
Make sure to diversify. Many assets will go to zero.
Here's an example portfolio of why you should diversify.
This is a somewhat unusual view in crypto, but I think that stocks have an important place in most portfolios.
While they can experience drawdowns, the dips don’t get nearly as ugly.
That makes it an ineffective narrative to onboard users to crypto.
Here's a thread on how we can actually help people understand the insane value of crypto networks.
(or the story of how I finally got my dad to pick up some $ETH)
thread👇
Let's start with the most basic definition of Bitcoin:
Cryptocurrencies are:
• decentralized digital currency
• without a central bank or single administrator
• that can be sent on peer-to-peer networks without the need for intermediaries
Decentralization convinces the libertarian crowd and the privacy crowd but not the mainstream.
'Without a central bank' is attractive to the gold bugs.
Ok I’ve written up some threads on the bull case and the bear case for $SPELL
Let’s talk about my personal opinion on the asset: 👇
We can talk about flawed token economics all day long, we can talk about how Daniele Sestagalli is the king of the frogs 🐸 and how WAGMI, both are unquantifiable.
Valuations are memes, and we need to understand that crypto valuations as more nuanced than equities.
To me, the value proposition of $SPELL is strong.
I’ve used it to borrow, the concept of borrowing against yield bearing tokens is revolutionary and the demand is there.
Take a look at the cauldrons: yield bearing pools are empty while token pools like $FTX and $SHIB are full.
Abracadabra Money's $SPELL token has TANKED over the last couple of weeks.
But maybe things are a lot more bullish than they seem...
Here's how the brand new analytics available on the Abracadabra Money Dashboard tell us we're overdue for a pump:
I think the most direct way to value $SPELL is its cash flows: it's unique in that just about every cent from borrowing activity gets paid out to stakers.
The past 6 weeks have produced an average of $2.33 mm/week. That's about $120 million in yearly revenue.
And that revenue doesn't cost anything. No marketing, no COGS, no interest expense.
Thus, we can value it more or less as pure earnings.
Below are some comps with P/Es that show how $SPELL is very undervalued. Note Maker DAO for an analogous crypto.