Crypto is panicking. It's not fun.

Here's the universal framework I use to keep my head and make money through nasty downturns. 👇

(thread)
My strategy for investing in altcoins is holding them, not trading them.

Everyone constantly posts their short-term technical analysis, flips, and trades. This is difficult to perform reliably/over time.

A better strategy: hold high conviction alts.

Don't sell them.
Your goal is to use crypto like a venture capitalist. Explore a basket of many smaller market cap projects (on average, they perform better than blue chips).

Let them go to zero or 100x.

Only a few in your portfolio have to succeed for you to outperform.
Have conviction in these assets. The crypto market is short-term irrational and greedy, making it hard to hold fundamentally strong assets.

Fortunately, these assets tend to perform incredibly well over time.

That's why research is vital. Don't be scared out of your positions.
Few understand conviction.

It should be developed BEFORE buying, not after.

Understand the asset, develop a thesis, make an investment. Then be convicted enough to hold it.

Don't 'develop conviction' after finding out your bags are shit.

Avoid buying shit in the first place.
ALLOCATION:

Make sure to diversify. Many assets will go to zero.

Here's an example portfolio of why you should diversify.
This is a somewhat unusual view in crypto, but I think that stocks have an important place in most portfolios.

While they can experience drawdowns, the dips don’t get nearly as ugly.

21st century: Stocks/Bonds
20th century: Crypto/Stocks
Never say no to life-changing money.

If you happen to have a home run (stay around long enough and you probably will), TAKE PROFIT.

The point is not to have the numbers on a screen go up.

The point is to make meaningful changes in your life and achieve financial independence.
One of my first big wins allowed me to start my business. I was happy to sell crypto to become self-employed.

Now I have no boss and live in a beautiful home.

Could I have made more money? Yes.

More money was never the point. The point is achieving what you want.
I woke up today down nearly 35% from the all-time-high of my crypto portfolio.

But my girlfriend is still sleeping peacefully, I'm writing this over a cup of coffee.

I’m content knowing I can provide for her and myself in any market conditions.
If this was helpful, please do me a favor by liking and RTing that first tweet. I've linked it below.

Follow me if you would like to learn more about this strategy of investing and finding fundamentally strong altcoins: @jackniewold

I write a newsletter on this style of investing. We explore and analyze altcoin investing with data.

There's a free list on investing strategies and a paid list of research reports on specific altcoins.

You can subscribe here:

cryptopragmatist.com/sign-up-twitte…

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More from @JackNiewold

3 Dec
Why are crypto influencers always shilling $ADA?

It's barely trading above its ATH, it's been heavily criticized, and there's been little progress since they launched smart contracts.

Here's the $100 million secret Cardano youtubers don't want you to know:

(thread👇)
When you look at a crypto, make sure to closely look at incentive structures. These are the mechanics that make price rise and fall.

Who's motivated to hold, to advertise, to buy, and to sell?

The key mechanic for Cardano?

Staking. About 70% of ADA is locked in stake pools.
The rate on your staked Cardano? About 5% a year.

The rate for someone who RUNS the stake pool?

Over 100% a year.

So validators are doubling their money yearly off the locked funds of their stakers, while stakers earn just about 5%.

That seems a little bit misaligned, right?
Read 13 tweets
1 Dec
Decentralization is subjective.

That makes it an ineffective narrative to onboard users to crypto.

Here's a thread on how we can actually help people understand the insane value of crypto networks.

(or the story of how I finally got my dad to pick up some $ETH)

thread👇
Let's start with the most basic definition of Bitcoin:

Cryptocurrencies are:

• decentralized digital currency
• without a central bank or single administrator
• that can be sent on peer-to-peer networks without the need for intermediaries
Decentralization convinces the libertarian crowd and the privacy crowd but not the mainstream.

'Without a central bank' is attractive to the gold bugs.

But peer-to-peer? That often gets overshadowed.
Read 14 tweets
1 Dec
Ok I’ve written up some threads on the bull case and the bear case for $SPELL

Let’s talk about my personal opinion on the asset: 👇
We can talk about flawed token economics all day long, we can talk about how Daniele Sestagalli is the king of the frogs 🐸 and how WAGMI, both are unquantifiable.

Valuations are memes, and we need to understand that crypto valuations as more nuanced than equities.
To me, the value proposition of $SPELL is strong.

I’ve used it to borrow, the concept of borrowing against yield bearing tokens is revolutionary and the demand is there.

Take a look at the cauldrons: yield bearing pools are empty while token pools like $FTX and $SHIB are full.
Read 13 tweets
27 Nov
$SPELL is down over 75%.

Let's talk about the bear case:👇
There's no such thing as a sure thing in crypto, there's no such thing as a perfect protocol.

People ask me often why $SPELL (or any asset) has dipped. Even for a *perfect* asset:

• Markets can be inefficient
• Things take time
• Broader market conditions can be unfriendly
That being said, let's get into some of the reasons $SPELL might:

• fail outright
• take a long time to recover
• underperform on a risk-adjusted return basis
Read 19 tweets
26 Nov
COVID trades have been the most profitable crypto buying opportunities of the last few years.

Here's how to make money by sniping the COVID dumps: 👇

(THREAD)
Let's go back to real beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.

While $BTC had been trending down for the last 8 months, it dumped over 40% on the same day that the SP500 tanked: March 11th.

This is 'The Day Everything Changed'
If you would've had the foresight to BUY on March 11th, your investment would've returned nearly 12x by today.

But you didn't.
Read 11 tweets
17 Nov
Abracadabra Money's $SPELL token has TANKED over the last couple of weeks.

But maybe things are a lot more bullish than they seem...

Here's how the brand new analytics available on the Abracadabra Money Dashboard tell us we're overdue for a pump:
I think the most direct way to value $SPELL is its cash flows: it's unique in that just about every cent from borrowing activity gets paid out to stakers.

The past 6 weeks have produced an average of $2.33 mm/week. That's about $120 million in yearly revenue.
And that revenue doesn't cost anything. No marketing, no COGS, no interest expense.

Thus, we can value it more or less as pure earnings.

Below are some comps with P/Es that show how $SPELL is very undervalued. Note Maker DAO for an analogous crypto.
Read 17 tweets

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