Thread by @anders_aslund

The Carnegie Moscow essay by @AndrKolesnikov & Denis Volkov, "The Coming Deluge," is a highly perceptive assessment of current Russia.
It is reminiscent "of the last years of the Soviet regime before perestroika" with "a consensus of inaction."
carnegiemoscow.org/2021/11/24/com…

2. "Most of the key challenges facing the Russian political system are related to the lack of economic growth. [because of] the state’s excessive interference in the economy and indeed all other aspects of life, creating an overcentralized and ineffective administrative state."

3. "...the authorities will not try to change Russia’s development vector... Unless something drastically changes, stagnation in the broadest sense of the word...is the only possible medium- and long-term scenario for Russia."

4. "Why...pursue major reforms if such measures might jeopardize political stability? Why reduce corruption, the predatory role of the state, creeping monopolization, or the flimsiness of property rights...helping keep the Russian political system glued together?"

5. "despite the gravity of the challenges Russia faces, hardly [anybody expects] 'the collapse of the regime or its democratization,' for the foreseeable future....After us, the deluge....the Russian ruling class’s motto seems to be, 'There’s enough to last for our lifetimes.'”

6. "The days of Russian authoritarian modernization—large-scale programs prepared by experts for the powers that be, such as Strategy 2020 and the 2017 proposal by the Center for Strategic Development—are over."

7. Sergei Guriev: “The Russian authorities fully understand all of the risks and problems that Russia faces. It is simply that their interests...contradict the interests of national development, and they are completely content with the status quo."