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Anders Åslund Profile picture
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5 Dec, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Watching responses on Twitter today, I see these recommendations what to do if Russia attacks Ukraine & they should be declared before:
1. Germany and the US should close Nord Stream 2 for good in line with their July 21 statement.
2. Russia should be expelled from the SWIFT payment system, as Iran was.
3. Russia should be excluded from most of the global financial system.
4. Western intelligence should publicize & freeze all Putin's & his cronies' international financial assets.
5. All Putin's cronies should be sanctioned.
6. Gennady Timchenko & Boris Rotenberg should be deprived of their Finnish citizenships.
7. The US should sanction Gerhard Schröder and Matthias Warnig.
8. The US, UK and Canada should move their troops in Ukraine to the Russian border
9. Sweden & Finland should agree on joining NATO if Russia attacks Ukraine again.
Please help me to find more worthy sanctions against possible Russian renewed warfare against Ukraine!
10. Russia should be expelled from the Council of Europe.
@ABlinken @UnderSecStateP @AmbDanFried @brianoftoole @peterharrell191 @Julie_C_Smith @JuliaFriedland @mikercarpenter @McFaul @ARVershbow @melindaharing @MelSimmonsFCDO @MattiMaasikas

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund Profile picture
7 Dec
After almost three hours after the end of the video call, Putin came out with a statement, so far only in Russian. It states that the call was mainly devoted to the "internal Ukrainian crisis and the absence of progress in fulfillment of the Minsk..."
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Untypically, the Kremlin mentions that Biden "underlined the allegedly 'threatening' character of the movement of Russian troops close to the Ukrainian partners and mentioned sanctions that the US and its allies would be ready to undertake in the case of further escalation."
"Vladimir Putin responded that the responsibility must not be transferred to the shoulders of Russia, since it is NATO that is carrying out dangerous attempts to seize the Ukrainian territory..."
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
6 Dec
It is great that the White House has issued its first ever US Strategy on Countering Corruption. It shows how important corruption has become for national security & how the Biden administration understands it. The more I dig in it, the better it looks.
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
Initially, it appears focused on international corruption, and it does not state that the US is the biggest offshore haven in the world and it offers no assessment of how large the US volume of dark money is, but it gets better and better.
The great US shortcoming is the millions of anonymous companies. The strategy states clearly:
"Beneficial ownership transparency: The United States will publish regulations and build a beneficial ownership database to implement the Corporate Transparency Act."
Great!
Read 10 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
6 Dec
What @POTUS should tell #Putin tomorrow:
1. Ukraine is a sovereign nation and has the right to decide whom and what it receives on its territory, including arms and foreign military. It has the right to join NATO (repeatedly stated in public).
2. The US has coordinated with its Western allies & will impose crippling financial and personal sanctions, which Biden will detail (guess: sanctioning more Russian bonds, secondary trade in sovereigns & corporate state bonds, VEB, oligarchs with families, etc.)
3. The US will not give Putin any benefit from his illicit military threat & it will not make any concessions on behalf of Ukraine, which is a sovereign nation.
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
5 Dec
The Carnegie Moscow essay by @AndrKolesnikov & Denis Volkov, "The Coming Deluge," is a highly perceptive assessment of current Russia.
It is reminiscent "of the last years of the Soviet regime before perestroika" with "a consensus of inaction."
carnegiemoscow.org/2021/11/24/com…
2. "Most of the key challenges facing the Russian political system are related to the lack of economic growth. [because of] the state’s excessive interference in the economy and indeed all other aspects of life, creating an overcentralized and ineffective administrative state."
3. "...the authorities will not try to change Russia’s development vector... Unless something drastically changes, stagnation in the broadest sense of the word...is the only possible medium- and long-term scenario for Russia."
Read 7 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
4 Dec
This fall, US policy on Russia, Ukraine & Belarus appears to have firmed up. Biden's & Blinken's statements this week are far stronger than before. Why did this happen? As @AmbDanFried always points out: We can always trust Putin to overplay his hand & mobilize the West.
With more serious people confirmed to State & Treasury, these two departments have regained weight against the rather inexperienced (and seemingly appeasing) NSC.
Common sense is coming through in Washington:
The only sensible way to deal with Putin is to stand up against him.
The rather significant 5th round of US sanctions against Lukashenka made the US catch up with the EU on those sanctions.
Blinken has signalled very clearly that much more serious financial and personal sanctions on Russia have been prepared if Putin attacks Ukraine.
Just right!
Read 4 tweets
Anders Åslund Profile picture
3 Dec
"Foreign companies partnering on Nord Stream 2 spent more than $14.2 million since 2017"
"Nord Stream 2 has paid more than $4.5 million to Roberti Global, a lobbying firm run by Democratic donor and lobbyist Vincent Roberti."
"Since the start of 2020, the pipeline company has paid about $1.3 million to BGR Group for lobbying by Walker Roberts," a Republican.
"Five foreign companies partnering with Gazprom on the pipeline — Austria’s OMV AG, the Netherlands’ Shell International, France’s ENGIE, and Germany’s Wintershall and Uniper SE — hired lobbyists at McLarty Inbound to lobby the State Department and the National Security Council."
Read 4 tweets

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