You can see that we have some bullish orderblocks on the daily that we've tapped on the wick down from the recent move
And as shown in second pic, a bearish order block at range high
FVG's
Looking on the Daily, we've also got three FVG's, with the recent wick move down filling and rendering this FVG as now closed
nPOC's
There is a close nPOC at $57k area, and also two more up near ATH.
From my end of the stick, it's not worth considering those two up top just yet though
Value Areas
From a HTF perspective of the Fixed Range Volume Profile, where we pull the range from the low before the rally in July, and to current timeframe, we can see the below Value Areas
And then?
Look at the below chart and you'll find the VAH, a nPOC, and an FVG close to each other.
Everyone wants price to run down, but would it be ultimate fuckery to hit these points, and then run down to test range low?
Much rekt-ness in such a move
Price at the high of the range also lends itself to being at a complete premium compared to the fair value level of mid range, or the discounted lower range.
There would be a fair bit of market interest at the lows and highs of course.
My take?
Well, for now, I'm happy to see what structure we beat in terms of lower timeframes that then allows me to frame my trading toward the highs or lows.
Lose that FRPV POC and I think we'll head to range low, but it also seems too juicy to not tap the range high as shown
Hopefully this has helped a bit.
As always, say hi to the old chook for us, look after your mates, and keep out of trouble.
Thanks as always to @Delta_Exchange for their support, and if you'd like to trade there, feel free to use the below link
Here's my 100 weeks of backtested $EURUSD price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, here's what is covered:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
Took me a while, hope you enjoy
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 38/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 31/100 occurrences
Note that there's during the week, there's more of a spread compared to $BTC
Percentage / Chance wise, you can see that Monday is more likely to be the low of the week by a factor of 5, 2, and 3 compared to a T, W, or Th respectively
Friday is different though.
With the high of the wk, Monday leads, followed by a Thurs, then Friday.
I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above