Price declines.

Expect large price declines over short periods of time, even for the best businesses.

Bessembinder (2020) on the 100 best stocks since 1950:

- Best Decade: Average loss -32.5% over 10 months.

- Preceding Decade: Average loss -52% over 22 months.
Extreme Stock Market Performers, Part I: Expect Some Drawdowns Hendrik Bessembinder July 2020

bailliegifford.com/literature-lib…
Similarly, the “Top 200” firms experienced an average -50% drawdowns (i.e. price decline from historical highs).
Extreme Stock Market Performers, Part III: What are their Observable Characteristics? Hendrik Bessembinder* July 2020

bailliegifford.com/literature-lib…

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More from @EugeneNg_VCap

9 Dec
UiPATH $PATH 3Q22 Earnings

- Rev $221m +50% ↗️
- GP $178m +37% ↗️ margin 80% -772 bps↘️
- NG EBIT $9m ↗️ margin 4% +1334 bps✅
- NG Net Inc $2m ⤴️ margin 1% +1545 bps✅

- 9m OCF $-49m margin -8% -1087 bps↘️
- 9m FCF $-31m margin -5% -769 bps↘️
➡️ Strong Business Metrics 💪🏻

- ARR $818m +58% ↗️
- Net New ARR $92m +42% ↗️
- RPO $580m +80% 🚀
- cRPO $359m +69% 🚀
- Gross Retention 98% ➡️
- Net Retention 145%+ ✅
- Cust 9.6k+ +1.8k +23%YoY ↗️ +6%QoQ ↗️
- Cust >$100k ARR 1,363 +52%YoY ↗️ +9%QoQ ↗️
➡️ Strong Business Metrics 💪🏻 (cont’d)

- Cust >$1m ARR 135 +82% YoY 🚀 +14% QoQ ↗️
- Partners 4.9k 📶 +200 +4%QoQ ↗️

4Q22 Guide
- ARR $901-903m ↗️
- Rev $281-283m ↗️
- NG EBIT $10-20m ↗️

Tech Partnerships: Snowflake, CrowdStrike, Qlik and Alteryx.
Read 17 tweets
7 Dec
Coupa Software $COUP 3Q22 Earnings 💪🏻

- Rev $186m +40%↗️
- GP $108m +32%↗️ margin 58% -358 bps↘️
- NG EBIT $28m +95%🚀 margin 15% +427 bps✅
- NG Net Inc $24m +81%🚀 margin 13% +287 bps✅
- OCF $31m +63% ↗️ margin 17% +240 bps✅
- FCF $28m +63% ↗️ margin 15% +216 bps✅
1 | Still Strong

- RPO $1.2b +58% ↗️
- cRPO +mid 40s% ↗️
- cRPO (ex Lamasoft) +mid 30% ↗️

4Q22 Guide
- Revenue $185-186m (flat QoQ)
- Billings $290m (mid teens after Lamasoft $14.8m adj)
2 | Strong Q

“We delivered another strong quarter with record revenue and profitability….we are seeing strong adoption of the Coupa platform…”
Read 11 tweets
7 Dec
MongoDB $MDB 3Q22 Earnings 💪🏻

- Rev $227m +50% ↗️
- Gross Profit $158m +51% ↗️ margin 70% +41 bps✅
- NG EBIT -$4m ⤴️ margin -2% +907 bps✅
- NG Net Income -$7m ⤴️ margin -3% +891 bps✅
- OCF -$6m ⤴️ margin -3% +283 bps✅
- FCF -$9m ⤴️ margin -4% +585 bps✅
$MDB Biz Metrics 💪🏻

- Atlas +84% 🚀now ~58% of revenues ↗️
(vs 56% in 2Q22, 47% in 3Q21)
- Cust >31K +37% ↗️ +2K QoQ 📶
- Atlas Cust >29.5K +40% ↗️
- Cust >$100k ARR 1,201 +34% ↗️
- Net AR Expansion >120% ✅
- >$0.5bn Rev Run-Rate 📈
1 | Strong 3Q22

“…just to reiterate, our strong performance is really due to again our consistent go to market execution as well as the confluence of the fact that the secular trends are really reinforcing our technical advantages and our growing credibility with customers….”
Read 12 tweets
5 Dec
My biggest takeaway from listening to “Invest Like the Best with Ram Parameswaran @_ram_ with Patrick O'Shaughnessy @patrick_oshag (5Jan2021)” 👇🏻

joincolossus.com/episodes/22392…
1 | Current Market Cap of Internet Companies ~10%

2 | 20-30 years, go up that S-Curve ~50-70%
3 | Front-end (marketplace, e-commerce, on-demand, ad & content solutions), with payments and software (cloud).
Read 9 tweets
4 Dec
Elastic $ESTC 2Q22 Earnings 💪🏻

- Rev $206m +42% ↗️
- Gross Profit $152m +43% ↗️ margin 74% +38 bps✅
- NG EBIT $1m ⤴️ margin 1% +187 bps✅
- NG Net Income -$9m ↘️ margin -4% -249 bps↘️
- OCF -$10m margin -5% +689 bps✅
- FCF -$12m margin -6% +688 bps✅ Image
Business Metrics

Strong Customer Growth
>15,000 Subscription Customers
>730 customers with ACV >$100
>75 customers with ACV >$1M
- High Net Expansion ~130%
- Billings $231m +30% ↗️
- Deferred Rev $832m +29% ↗️
- RPO $832m +29% ↗️
- Avg contract length ~1.5Y ✅ Image
1| Solid Q2

“Our strong second-quarter results were fueled by the rapid adoption of Elastic Cloud, the increased strategic relevance of our solutions, and continued expansion across our customer base.”
Read 13 tweets
24 Nov
Reflection.

With the Q3 earnings season nearing the end, and after doing numerous earnings reviews for my portfolio companies.

Here’s 10 of my biggest reflections and key takeaways 👇🏻:
1 | Fluctuations.

Not every businesses will do well every quarter.

There will be some quarters that they will do really well.

There will be some quarters, they won’t do so well, consolidating, reinvesting, pivoting.

There will be others indicating a long-term broader decline.
2 | Impairment.

If the business did not do well, was it only one quarter or many consecutive quarters?

If the former, take a chill pill & relax.

If more than a couple of quarters, is the business structurally deteriorating faster than expected?

Distinguish the difference.
Read 12 tweets

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