UiPATH $PATH 3Q22 Earnings

- Rev $221m +50% ↗️
- GP $178m +37% ↗️ margin 80% -772 bps↘️
- NG EBIT $9m ↗️ margin 4% +1334 bps✅
- NG Net Inc $2m ⤴️ margin 1% +1545 bps✅

- 9m OCF $-49m margin -8% -1087 bps↘️
- 9m FCF $-31m margin -5% -769 bps↘️
➡️ Strong Business Metrics 💪🏻

- ARR $818m +58% ↗️
- Net New ARR $92m +42% ↗️
- RPO $580m +80% 🚀
- cRPO $359m +69% 🚀
- Gross Retention 98% ➡️
- Net Retention 145%+ ✅
- Cust 9.6k+ +1.8k +23%YoY ↗️ +6%QoQ ↗️
- Cust >$100k ARR 1,363 +52%YoY ↗️ +9%QoQ ↗️
➡️ Strong Business Metrics 💪🏻 (cont’d)

- Cust >$1m ARR 135 +82% YoY 🚀 +14% QoQ ↗️
- Partners 4.9k 📶 +200 +4%QoQ ↗️

4Q22 Guide
- ARR $901-903m ↗️
- Rev $281-283m ↗️
- NG EBIT $10-20m ↗️

Tech Partnerships: Snowflake, CrowdStrike, Qlik and Alteryx.
1 | Stay focused on ARR, it will determine revenue growth
2 | 🏆 UiPath Top Dog

UiPath named a leader in the inaugural IDC MarketScape: Worldwide Robotic Process Automation Software 2021-2022 Vendor Assessment.
2 | 🏆 UiPath Top Dog (cont’d)

UiPath named a Robotic Process Automation (RPA) Leader and Star Performer in the Technology Vendor Landscape for the 5th consecutive year, according to Everest Group’s Robotic Process Automation Products PEAK Matrix® Assessment 2021.
3 | Competitive Landscape

“….we have not seeing any material moves in terms of the competitive landscape”

“…the first IDC report that put us in a very clear leadership position.”
4 | Microsoft - Not a Major Threat

“If we take into account the deals where Microsoft is participating versus the deals where Microsoft is not participating, we are not seeing material changes in our winning rate.”
4 | Microsoft - Not a Major Threat (cont’d)

“…I can say Microsoft has doesn't have a meaningful impact on our ability to win customers.”

“…Microsoft is focused with their RPA mostly on citizen developer and personal productivity. This is a small part of our overall time.
4 | Microsoft - Not a Major Threat (cont’d)

So I don't see that in the coming years Microsoft investment in competing with us will really derail us from our growth trajectory that we are seeing and we are building right now.”
5 | Differentiating Factor

“…when it comes to real enterprise enterprise automation. Customers are choosing UiPath…because we offer an end-to-end platform, that is suitable from small use cases to the most complex use cases.”
6 | Duration

“duration is going to be something we keep an eye on…really don't drive duration from a business standpoint…”
7 | Ultimately driven by Customer Success

“Really, what defines when a customer is expands is when they start seeing those bursts of ROI…that actually can come two to three months out, and then continue to come as they go across departments.
7 | Ultimately driven by Customer Success (cont’d)

…more often than not, we see multiple buying patterns that multiple points in the year of when customers buy again speaks to the strength of our land and expand model…”
8 | Investing for the Long-Term

“…while we're committed to long-term operating margins that we've talked about of 20% plus our priority right now is investment”

“…we've talked about being roughly cash flow neutral not afraid to go a little plus or minus against that”.
➡️ Final Takeaway on UiPath $PATH:

With high Net Retention 145%+, ARR growing rapidly +58%, if UiPath continues to deliver long-term customer success, the durability of its revenues will become increasingly clearer.
➡️ Final Takeaway on UiPath $PATH (cont’d):

In the near-term, it remains focused on reinvesting and growing and with high software gross margins of >90%, with eventual operating leverage, path towards long-term operating profitability of 20%+ is clear. Thesis unchanged.

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More from @EugeneNg_VCap

8 Dec
Price declines.

Expect large price declines over short periods of time, even for the best businesses.

Bessembinder (2020) on the 100 best stocks since 1950:

- Best Decade: Average loss -32.5% over 10 months.

- Preceding Decade: Average loss -52% over 22 months.
Extreme Stock Market Performers, Part I: Expect Some Drawdowns Hendrik Bessembinder July 2020

bailliegifford.com/literature-lib…
Similarly, the “Top 200” firms experienced an average -50% drawdowns (i.e. price decline from historical highs).
Read 4 tweets
7 Dec
Coupa Software $COUP 3Q22 Earnings 💪🏻

- Rev $186m +40%↗️
- GP $108m +32%↗️ margin 58% -358 bps↘️
- NG EBIT $28m +95%🚀 margin 15% +427 bps✅
- NG Net Inc $24m +81%🚀 margin 13% +287 bps✅
- OCF $31m +63% ↗️ margin 17% +240 bps✅
- FCF $28m +63% ↗️ margin 15% +216 bps✅
1 | Still Strong

- RPO $1.2b +58% ↗️
- cRPO +mid 40s% ↗️
- cRPO (ex Lamasoft) +mid 30% ↗️

4Q22 Guide
- Revenue $185-186m (flat QoQ)
- Billings $290m (mid teens after Lamasoft $14.8m adj)
2 | Strong Q

“We delivered another strong quarter with record revenue and profitability….we are seeing strong adoption of the Coupa platform…”
Read 11 tweets
7 Dec
MongoDB $MDB 3Q22 Earnings 💪🏻

- Rev $227m +50% ↗️
- Gross Profit $158m +51% ↗️ margin 70% +41 bps✅
- NG EBIT -$4m ⤴️ margin -2% +907 bps✅
- NG Net Income -$7m ⤴️ margin -3% +891 bps✅
- OCF -$6m ⤴️ margin -3% +283 bps✅
- FCF -$9m ⤴️ margin -4% +585 bps✅
$MDB Biz Metrics 💪🏻

- Atlas +84% 🚀now ~58% of revenues ↗️
(vs 56% in 2Q22, 47% in 3Q21)
- Cust >31K +37% ↗️ +2K QoQ 📶
- Atlas Cust >29.5K +40% ↗️
- Cust >$100k ARR 1,201 +34% ↗️
- Net AR Expansion >120% ✅
- >$0.5bn Rev Run-Rate 📈
1 | Strong 3Q22

“…just to reiterate, our strong performance is really due to again our consistent go to market execution as well as the confluence of the fact that the secular trends are really reinforcing our technical advantages and our growing credibility with customers….”
Read 12 tweets
5 Dec
My biggest takeaway from listening to “Invest Like the Best with Ram Parameswaran @_ram_ with Patrick O'Shaughnessy @patrick_oshag (5Jan2021)” 👇🏻

joincolossus.com/episodes/22392…
1 | Current Market Cap of Internet Companies ~10%

2 | 20-30 years, go up that S-Curve ~50-70%
3 | Front-end (marketplace, e-commerce, on-demand, ad & content solutions), with payments and software (cloud).
Read 9 tweets
4 Dec
Elastic $ESTC 2Q22 Earnings 💪🏻

- Rev $206m +42% ↗️
- Gross Profit $152m +43% ↗️ margin 74% +38 bps✅
- NG EBIT $1m ⤴️ margin 1% +187 bps✅
- NG Net Income -$9m ↘️ margin -4% -249 bps↘️
- OCF -$10m margin -5% +689 bps✅
- FCF -$12m margin -6% +688 bps✅ Image
Business Metrics

Strong Customer Growth
>15,000 Subscription Customers
>730 customers with ACV >$100
>75 customers with ACV >$1M
- High Net Expansion ~130%
- Billings $231m +30% ↗️
- Deferred Rev $832m +29% ↗️
- RPO $832m +29% ↗️
- Avg contract length ~1.5Y ✅ Image
1| Solid Q2

“Our strong second-quarter results were fueled by the rapid adoption of Elastic Cloud, the increased strategic relevance of our solutions, and continued expansion across our customer base.”
Read 13 tweets
24 Nov
Reflection.

With the Q3 earnings season nearing the end, and after doing numerous earnings reviews for my portfolio companies.

Here’s 10 of my biggest reflections and key takeaways 👇🏻:
1 | Fluctuations.

Not every businesses will do well every quarter.

There will be some quarters that they will do really well.

There will be some quarters, they won’t do so well, consolidating, reinvesting, pivoting.

There will be others indicating a long-term broader decline.
2 | Impairment.

If the business did not do well, was it only one quarter or many consecutive quarters?

If the former, take a chill pill & relax.

If more than a couple of quarters, is the business structurally deteriorating faster than expected?

Distinguish the difference.
Read 12 tweets

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