During the past 4 weeks, 78% of reported Covid deaths in England were vaccinated.
Unvaccinated people under 50 account for less than 3% of covid deaths in England. In fact, people under 50 account for less than 5% of covid deaths, vaccinated or not.
Using CFR as a proxy for VE against death, it appears there is very strong efficacy for those aged 60-79 which moderates somewhat over 80.
However, people are not randomly assigned to the vax/no vax group and a CFR of 34% indicates that many unvax'd are seriously unwell.
Perhaps more importantly, CFRs are so low for those under 50 years of age that it would be difficult to plausibly show a statistically significant benefit from vaccination in these age groups.
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Through mid-November, in 2021 Sweden has recorded their 2nd fewest deaths from all causes of any year in this century (only 2019 had fewer deaths).
2019 had extraordinarily few deaths in Sweden, followed by a period of excess in 2020 then a short period of few deaths. Since W15, mortality has returned to normal.
Sweden covid deaths were displaced but inevitable (dry tinder).
This is what a pandemic looks like without panic
In a nation of 10.3 million people, the net impact of covid was ~2000 excess deaths between 2019 and 2021.
Imagine how many more people would be alive today if all the world had followed Sweden's sane, measured, response.
Potentially great news from the SE USA - the flu has apparently returned to college campuses, with outbreaks reported at FSU, Florida, Georgia, and FAMU.
During prior pandemics, the return of endemic flu signaled the end of the pandemic.
Throughout the SE, covid cases have plummeted off the late summer wave. At this point last year, cases were beginning to rise for Winter.
If cases remain low and the return of the flu is confirmed, the SE USA may indeed have joined Africa and much of Asia in endemicity.
The latest estimates (to be taken with a grain of salt) from Yale, Harvard, and Stanford are that >68% of the population in the SE has already been infected and recovered from covid, which may be enough to signal the transition to endemicity.
What is going on in Europe? Covid mortality during weeks 1-40 has more than doubled compared to last year, while excess mortality is actually lower this year.
Moreover, reported covid deaths are 2X higher than excess deaths:
One answer is that there have actually been FEWER deaths than expected in those 85+ this year, even though this age group accounts for over 1/4 of all covid deaths.
This is a perfect display of the "dry tinder" effect:
Conversely, though there are few covid deaths in this age bracket, excess mortality for those aged 15-44 has nearly tripled this year compared to last year.
Excess mortality for this group is not correlated with covid waves; it is a slow, steady drip of despair.
The flu is back (multiple strains) - the Indian subcontinent from Pakistan through Bangladesh has seen the return of influenza alongside the rapid disappearance of covid-19.
Nearly 1/4 of the Earth's population reside within these four nations, each reporting high seroprevelance from natural infection and low rates of vaccination.
The evidence appears to indicate that natural infection can end a pandemic - but not vaccination (see Singapore).
None of these nations have fully vaccinated even 25% of their population and yet Covid is disappearing and the flu has returned.
It seems that the only way past a pandemic is through it - by natural infection.
After apparently "eliminating" covid for nearly one year, Singapore is now reporting one of the highest case rates on Earth, bested only by the nations of the Caribbean and Balkans:
Singapore had been following a "zero covid" strategy but opted to begin re-opening once the vast majority of the population had been fully vaccinated.
Unfortunately, having 9 of 10 adults fully vaccinated has not prevented an "exponential" rise in transmission:
More disturbingly, a spike in fatalities has followed cases in Singapore, despite astronomical vaccination uptake: