1. The 7 day moving average of new #COVID19 cases = increased 40-fold between 16 Nov (332) + 8 Dec (13,237) 2. This increase is much steeper than in any previous wave
2. @Dr_Groome: 1. The increase in new #COVID19 cases = mostly driven by Gauteng, where the #Omicron outbreak started 2. Left graph = absolute nr of cases, right graph = incidence (new cases), accounted for population size = starting to see increases in other provinces too
3. What do new #COVID19 cases look like by age? 1. Early on in the #Omicron wave we saw more cases in younger age groups 2. Currently, the incidence is highest in the 20-39 year and 40-59 year group, followed by the 60+ year group
4. @Dr_Groome:
There has been a dramatic increase in the test positivity rate (the % of tests that come out positive) - this increase is steeper than in any previous wave:
- Between 14 + 28 Nov the + rate increased from 2.5% to 24.9%
- Yesterday (Thu), the + rate was: 29.8%
5. @Dr_Groome: 1. This is how positivity test rates are distributed across SA (red = over 30%) 2. See how the red is concentrated in the north of SA in Gauteng, but is now filtering to the rest of the country
6. @Dr_Groome: 1. This is a table of test positivity rates for provinces 2. Gauteng's (35%) + rate is the highest (where the #Omicron outbreak in SA started), followed by Northwest, MP and Limpopo (all 3 = neighboring provinces of GP)
7. Which SA provinces have officially entered a 4th wave? @Dr_Groome: 1. Gauteng 2. Northwest 3. Mpumalanga
8. What's happening with reproductive (R) numbers? (This is how many other people 1 infected person will infect): 1. Nationally our R nr = 2.55 (this is the highest R nr SA has seen since the start of #COVID19) 2. In Gauteng (where SA's #Omicron outbreak started) the R nr = 3.06
9. What's happening with hospitalisations? 1. The right graph shows the increase in hospitalisations in both the private and public sector 2. The left graph shows a drop off, but that is due to a delay in the reporting of cases, not an actual drop in cases
10. The left graph compares the nr of new cases (orange) with hospital admissions (grey) for all waves:
The diffs with the 4th (#Omicron) wave = admissions start later (a while after a steep increase in cases; admissions in previous waves = along with an increase in cases).
11. Early indications of #Omicron hospitalisations, based on SA data: 1. We're starting to see a disconnect between cases and hospitalisations 2. Right graph = there is a much lower % of patients getting admitted (blue) - but could be because it's still early in the wave
12. What's happening with #COVID19 deaths? 1. We haven't seen any significant increase nationally 2. We're starting to see small increases in Gauteng (where SA's #Omicron outbreak started)
13. This table shows increases in #COVID19 hospital admissions/deaths in provinces: 1. Gauteng: Increase from an average of 32.57 (for 2 weeks) to 181.07 (the average of the following 2 weeks) = 455% increase 2. Deaths in Gauteng = 68% increase
14. AGE breakdown 4 GAUTENG admissions (last 3 weeks): 1. We started off with a larger % of admissions in younger (20/below) groups, but that is now changing 2. We're now seeing the % of younger admissions decreasing + the % of admissions in older groups (slightly) increasing
15. GAUTENG admission data broken down into smaller age bands: 1. 0-5 years = a high % of admissions initially, but this has decreased from 14% of admissions to 7% of admissions over the last 3 weeks 2. 60+ admissions have increased from about 13% to just over 16%
16. @Dr_Groome: 1. This graph shows that the #COVID19 admissions we're seeing are mostly among the age groups with low vaccination rates 2. This is in line with evidence that vaccines protect people from falling severely ill with COVID (so they don't need hospitalisation)
17. What is defined as severe illness?
= People with acute respiratory distress syndrome, those needing oxygen or are admitted to ICU
Note: The data presented = early stage data, which means many beds = still available + docs are more likely to admit patients with mild disease
18. Summary: 1. The nr of new #COVID19 cases are on a sharp increase and so is the test positivity rate 2. % of younger admissions = changing (becoming a smaller % of total admissions) 3. No signals of more severe disease 4. Most hospital admissions = unvaccinated people
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🧵1. BREAKING: The peer-reviewed results of the study of a 6-monthly jab, #lenacapavir, in which not a single of the 2134 women between 16-25 years who received the jab contracted #HIV, were released at #Aids2024.
2. Women often find it hard to adhere to daily #oralPrEP. In the Purpose 1 trial, 91.5% of women returned on time for their next #lenacapavir jab at 26 weeks and 92.8% at week 52.
3. Only 4 women out of 2134 (0.2%) who received #lenacapavir dropped out of the trial because of injection-site reactions.
[Thread] 12 things to know about the the proportion of pregnant women infected with #HIV from SA’s latest antenatal HIV survey. The survey is conducted by the @nicd_sa.
(Analysis of our 95-95-95 goals in my next thread later in Jan).
1/12
2. What is the antenatal #HIV survey?
1. It measures the % of HIV+ pregnant women between the ages of 15 + 49. 2. Only women using state pregnancy clinics take part. 3. The survey has been conducted each year between 1990-2015, then in 2017, 2019 +2022.
3. How many pregnant women between 15-49’s blood was tested for #HIV? 37 828 out of 40 542 collected samples.
- 37 7171 = Black African women
- 37 541 didn’t live with the dad of their child
- 35,635 of dads were 5 years+ older than moms (this makes them more likely to get HIV)
JUST IN [Thread]:
1.@healthza's Lesley Broomberg:
An extra #COVID19 booster jab for people of 18+ in SA will become available towards the end of JANUARY
- People of 50+ qualify for a 5th dose
- People of 18+ qualify for a 4th dose
2. Lesley Broomberg: Can you mix and match with additional boosters? Yes. You can choose whether you want a #JnJ or #Pfizer booster.
3. Lesley Broomberg:
Will teens of 12-17 qualify for boosters? Not at this stage. Why not? The #VMAC = not recommended booster doses for 12-17, based on an understanding that the protection provided by 2 #Pfizer doses = adequate, as 12-17 = @ low risk of severe #COVID19 illness
[Thread] #JoePhaahla:
- Genomic surveillance Network reported the detection of the new subvariant XBB.1.5 in SA of a sample of a patient tested on 22 Dec
- Details of the patient = not known, it was a random sample taken for testing
- XBB.1.5 = also common in US
2. XBB.1.5 = common in US
#JoePhaahla:
- 97%+ of #COVID19 cases worldwide = still #Omicron
- XBB.1.5 cases = no major change in hospitalisations or deaths
- Immunity of SAs (vax and natural immunity) = still strong, so that is why we haven't seen much change in terms of hospital admissions/deaths
Which APIs will Aspen use?
India's Serum Institute's
2. Why is it NB that an African company makes these jabs?
#Africa imports almost all its jabs. #COVID19 showed us this results in Africa being last in line to get vaccines during pandemics. The grant to Aspen is 1 of the 1st steps to change that.
3. What's the goal?
By 2040, the African Union wants #Africa to make 60% of the jabs the continent uses.
Why?
So that Africa is better equipped 2 respond 2 outbreaks (by developing the ability to make jabs + have technology in place to also make new jabs during pandemics).
🧵1. BREAKING: @SAHPRA1 has confirmed the registration of the #HIV prevention jab, #CABLA in South Africa. On Thursday, #ViiVHealthcare issued their statement.
2. Who can use the jab? @SAHPRA1 didn't specify restrictions for use in their statement, only that it is "a highly effective option for people at substantial risk of #HIV infection."
3. How does the jab work? It uses an #ARV called cabotegravir that prevents #HIV from replicating and entering someone’s cells. It’s taken every two months. Read my latest story for more. bit.ly/3ER7ejq