Thread by @celiabelin

This week confirmed recent trends: violence at Zemmour’s 1st meeting, a Macron tour de force to launch #PFUE2022, Pécresse picking up speed. But one disruption occurred on the left, worth highlighting even though it’s already fizzled...A #FrenchFriday 🧵 with @BlochAgneska 1/15

Faced with ever weaker poll numbers, Socialist presidential candidate and mayor of Paris @Anne_Hidalgo staked everything on an announcement on @TF1 that she was in favor of organizing a “popular primary” for the left. tf1.fr/tf1/jt-20h/vid… 2/

A hope immediately dashed by other leftist #Presidentielle2022 candidates: Green @yjadot, Communist @Fabien_Roussel, @FranceInsoumise's @JLMelenchon. Only @montebourg is on board, but he would favor a rapprochement of programs first. In a nutshell, a failure. 3/

Hidalgo’s Hail Mary looks like a desperate move from a sinking campaign. Rumors of replacement of the candidate, such as from Justice Min. @ChTaubira, abound. But the @partisocialiste call to unity echoes an old desire to see the left join forces against the Macron challenge. 4/

Divisions among candidates reinforce the structural absence of a left-wing voice. Recently Socialists hit 3%, @yjadot 7%, @JLMelenchon 8%. In theory, they could together reach 18% & be in the run-up for 2nd round, given the threshold is remarkably low. bfmtv.com/politique/elec… 5/

But the main challenge to uniting the left is institutional resistance within parties. @partisocialiste elected leaders need a presidential candidate to ensure their party brand still means something come the #Legislatives2022 elections. 6/

#UnionPopulaire @JLMelenchon is resisting too, as he received almost as many votes as @FrancoisFillon in 2017 & believes he can make it to 2nd round in 2022. His break with the Socialists is rooted in the divisive 2005 referendum on the EU constitution: no love lost there. 7/

Greens (#ecologistes) are not on board either, as they've already had their primary, settled differences & believe they hold the key to the future of left-wing politics: climate action. (After all, the Germans did it!) To them, the old left is disconnected with today’s needs. 8/

But at the root of the divisions lies the trauma of 2002, when Jacques Chirac, an incumbent with low approval, faced his Socialist PM Lionel Jospin. Driven by overconfidence, Jospin underperformed and far-right FN leader Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the 2nd round instead. 9/

Jean-Marie Le Pen's ability to make it to the 2nd round was blamed on high abstention, but also on the splitting of the left vote among a smattering of candidates, none of whom received more than 6% . interieur.gouv.fr/Elections/Les-… 10/

Since 2002, the “vote utile” concept (strategic vote) has prevailed in presidential elections : the left should erect a wall against the far right by voting for candidates most likely to make it to 2nd round. This benefitted @RoyalSegolene in 2007 & @fhollande even more in 2012.

But in 2017, an atomized political landscape led to confusion and turbulence. Polls indicated that Socialist @benoithamon would not be in a strong position. And so a burst of “vote utile” ended up benefitting partly Mélenchon, but most of all @EmmanuelMacron and @enmarchefr. 12/

Ahead of #Presidentielles2022, confusion looms even larger. With Le Pen, Zemmour & Pécresse all at some point appearing to pose a credible challenge to Macron, how is a "vote utile" to be cast? On the left? Or to M again--even though left-wingers have long lost faith in him? 13/

Advancing a single name would have given the left a chance to move to the 2nd round, ideally facing Macron. But again, without a single candidate, the left is caught between a rock & a hard place. 14/

If @vpecresse, @EmmanuelMacron &either @MLP_officiel/@ZemmourEric hold at ~20% in polls, the urgency of the vote utile will come crashing back. Faced with the risk of a Pecresse vs far right 2nd round, the left will find itself torn once again btwn ideology & conscience [end]