Thread by @celiabelin

How to grasp Eric Zemmour’s non-candidacy? This week for #FrenchFriday, @BlochAgneska and I highlight a new report from @j_jaures that analyzes his ideology, image, electorate, and where things might be headed. Some takeaways ⬇️ 1/14
jean-jaures.org/publication/le…

At the heart of @j_jaures report, the conviction that there is a need to take @ZemmourEric's (almost) candidacy seriously, especially at a time when many in the media, like Trump in his time, tend to take him literally but not seriously. Is Zemmour a bubble close to bursting? 2/

No, bc there is a deep ideology at the heart of his discourse. @MiloMLB and @PotierFred show his intellectual roots, from Drumont to Bainville to Maurras --- and how Zemmour doesn’t believe in politics, only in persecutions. To repress the demographic trends he abhors. 3/

As @finchelstein & @BriceTeinturier wrote for @lemondefr, 65% of Z’s voters are radical to very radical (vs 31% of French overall). Their primary worries are immigration (75%) & delinquency (51%). 21% are "worried," 10% "revolted," 9% "angry."4/ lemonde.fr/politique/arti…

Are we making too much out of him? asks @matsouq. Not really, because “Zemmourism” has deep roots. Populism has taken root in France, even before yellow vests/antivaxxers: 9 French out of 10 believe political leaders take decisions that go against the interests of the people. 5/

France tilts also increasingly to the right on immigration issues. Zemmour recipe is 1/3rd populist, 2/3rd ultra-nationalist : it might just work for him as it did for Trump. Especially as Marine Le Pen is lost credibility, even in her own camp. 6/

Of Z’s current ~16% support, 9pts come from MLP voters, 2 from Bertrand, 1 from Dupont-Aignan, 1 from Macron, and 2 from voters who didn’t intend to go to the polls/did not express any voting intention. (@A_Bristielle, @TristanGuerra & @victoria_grt discuss Z supporters too.) 7/

Compared to Le Pen and Bertrand voters esp, Z’s voters come from varied backgrounds: 13% of under 35s and 17% of 60+ support him. Support from those of upper and lower socio-professional status is similar (14 vs 16%). 8/

Zemmour is also singularly disliked. Among women – with a 6pt gender gap. Among the French too: 70% do not believe he has the makings of a President, 37pts behind Macron, 10 behind Le Pen. 57% of French are worried about Z, 71% think he tarnishes France’s international image. 9/

Remember, though that radicality, populism, ultra-nationalism only take you so far. Per @finchelstein & @BriceTeinturier, the French are just not as angry as they were in 2018. They are tired, longing for leadership and reform. Profound change. 10/

Can Zemmour be the personification of this change? For now, he is masterful at story-telling. @Raphael_llorca tells us Zemmour is campaigning “to the death”, both with words and with images – remember his stunt with the sniper? 12/

https://twitter.com/L_heguiaphal/status/1450742610704928769?s=20

Zemmour is also launching a Netflix-style campaign, according to @Raphael_llorca, with the 3 elements of a good show: a main character with a simple and consistent personality, changes in rhythm, and suspense management.
A dark, sad show, to be sure. 13/

https://twitter.com/Raphael_llorca/status/1455805673942528001

Zemmour has not declared his candidacy yet, but if @Raphel_llorca is right that his campaign is following the rhythm of a Netflix series, the current lull should be followed by a big announcement in no time. 14/14