Thread by @celiabelin

Earlier today, @POTUS met with French Prez @EmmanuelMacron at the French Embassy to Vatican. A highly anticipated meeting, a month and a half after infamous AUKUS spat, producing long joint statement. What’s the status of the FR-US relationship? Here, a thread. #FrenchFriday 1/

After France called AUKUS a “betrayal”&"stab in the back”, US quickly determined there was a need to fix the situation. Couldn’t afford a crisis of such magnitude with #OldestAlly. So Macron and Biden had decided on a process of “in-depth consultations” 2/
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

Consultations have been taking place in a sustained way over the past month. Americans have indeed brought out the big guns – a succession of high-level US officials passed through Paris or met bilaterally with French counterparts, and a lot has been discussed. 3/

In a month, at least 6 cabinet-level meetings and counting took place (between Blinken, Kerry, Austin, Yellen and counterparts), many meetings for @Ph_Etienne with WH/Congress. US and FR diplomats fully engaged too, from policy planners to top advisers.4/
wsj.com/articles/anton…

French civil society was also engaged. @SecBlinken showed up on prime-time French TV, speaking perfect French. Track 1.5’s with French think tankers took place when @JakeSullivan46 visited. 5/

https://twitter.com/USEmbassyFrance/status/1446465269979824130?s=20

The procession will continue. In November, @VP Harris will come to Paris to discuss space issues, Libya, and to attend the @ParisPeaceForum in a clear sign of support for multilateralism, as well as France’s global leadership on these issues. 6/

https://twitter.com/JustinVaisse/status/1451629741547663361?s=20

After all the commotion, is today’s Biden/Macron bilateral meeting the end of the game? Yes, to some extent. Such intense engagement can’t last forever (other Europeans would get jealous, and the US wants to move on), and the process has already produced concrete results. 7/

As the joint statement of the #MacronBiden meeting clearly indicates, the process has produced a flurry of joint bilateral initiatives: on clean energy, on emerging tech, on space, on defense trade. Many working groups to be, but advances nonetheless. 8/
elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-ma…

Another important gesture for the bilateral relationship include a US commitment of “additional assets in the Sahel to support counterterrorism efforts”. This “surge” comes at a crucial time for French/European efforts in region – likely to encourage others to join. 9/

The US also recognizes “the importance of a stronger &more capable European defense”. Important part comes after: support for European investments in military capabilities AND support for strengthening NATO-EU strategic partnership. A rebuke to EU skeptics, often Turks/Brits.10/

Very interesting too is reaffirmation of NATO’s nuclear credibility. And, crucially, US recognizes that “allies should continue close consultations on nuclear and arms control matters, particularly within NATO”. Europeans want to be at the table when arms control is discussed.11/

So, France played its cards right after the AUKUS deal, and got a lot out of it. The main outcome is that the US administration had no choice but to listen to French views for a few weeks. Some messages have clearly gone through. 12/

However, the crisis undoubtedly benefitted other Europeans too. First, the travel ban was lifted on Sept 20, and that is no coincidence. Clearly, the administration looked and found a quick win, and announced this highly anticipated measure--to the benefit of all Europeans. 13/

Second, French-US crisis forced the US to think about the role they hope for European allies in Asia. No doubt the French crisis helped to launch the EU-US Security & Defense Dialogue, which will first meet in Dec to discuss Indo-Pacific. 14/

https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1448711574684844038?s=20

Overall, both sides are fairly content with the process, and its results. It may also signal the moment when both Europe and the US finally overcome their “Trump Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder”. 15/

For Europeans, “Trump PTSD” made them overly cautious when dealing with Biden admin, trying to please the newcomers, and failing to present interests more clearly. Europeans should not shy away from demonstrating displeasure, as this admin has shown it is willing to listen. 16/

For Americans, “Trump PTSD” made them secretive and rigid, anguished over leaks and obsessed over foreign policy-making process. But AUKUS showed US needs to backchannel allies, Afgh showed it needs to let Europe in the loop, travel ban showed that pragmatism goes a long way. 17/

With its very visible demonstration of anger, forcing the US to stop and reevaluate what they want out of this relationship, France may have helped to reset the clock on transatlantic relations for the administration. A good basis to start over --to the benefit of both sides[end]