Over the last few years, I had sometimes the chance to meet and talk with very high level decision makers - sometimes even PMs and Central Banks’ board members!
Here is a couple of fun episodes.
1/5
Once I had dinner with the former Prime Minister of a G10 country.
We were half drunk, and I asked him why his country was not investing in financial literacy, education and other long-term easy wins. His answer?
2/5
“Young man, I have to get re-elected in few years, and the benefits of those reforms would be huge but I won’t be there to reap the political benefits. So we’d rather do some short-term unproductive but easy-to-market stimulus to get some votes”.
Incentive schemes are vital
3/5
At another event I met an influential Central Bank board member…in the men’s restroom.
The perfect place to pester somebody with uncomfortable questions, so I asked him about negative real rates and the long-term plan.
He said…
4/5
“There is no long-term way out as potential growth rate as super low and likely to fall further. We kick the can down the road and manage our communication to the public accordingly, as the alternatives would be much worse”.
So, deal with the hand you have been dealt.
5/5
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Commercial banks print money.
They are able to extend credit to the real economy, temporarily boosting aggregate demand and GDP.
They are not doing that, and it's key to pay attention!
Why?
1/10
The chart above shows the 2y mov.avg. of the growth in US bank lending to the real economy. It therefore excludes mortgages, but it includes commercial, industrial and consumer loans - basically credit that ends up on the account of consumers the engines of the real economy
2/10
It's now running at a very modest +1.6% on an annualized basis, peaking from the +5.0% reached in early 2020 when governments effectively guaranteed the majority of the credit risk on bank loans during the first stages of the pandemic.
This is the amount of the $-denominated loans and bonds sitting on the balance sheet of entities domiciled outside the US
The death of the USD has been called for times and times again (last: '20-21): it's an easy narrative, but caution is required
1/8
Our economic and monetary system is based on continuous credit creation.
The US sits at the epicenter of this system as they enjoy the benefit of issuing the global reserve currency to the world: the majority of trades, settlements, payments across the world happen in USD.
2/8
As @patrick_saner shows, the world is highly leveraged towards the USD: while the US only accounts for 15% of global GDP, 50% of global trade invoices and 75% of global securities issuance are $-denominated. Wow.
Yesterday I asked people on FinTwit to ask questions about how QE works and what are its consequences on the economy and asset prices, and I promised to answer to the 10 most interesting questions.
Here we are: the questions were awesome, buckle up!
0/10
Q: ''Why does the following QE process NOT create money? An asset manager sells a gov bond to the CB & receives a bank deposit, which it can use to buy a new bond from the gov, which in turn can spend the proceeds of that new bond sale into the real economy''
A: in this example, the only creator of inflationary forms of money is the government that prints additional deficits; the Central Bank simply swapped the gov bond for a bank deposit on the asset manager balance sheet.
Let me share with you my main tools to navigate markets: The Macro Compass.
It's a cross-asset allocation tool that serves as a big picture indication of what's coming next, and it helped me generate excess risk-adjusted returns over the years.
1/10
The Macro Compass is a 4-quadrants asset allocation tool, which uses two main inputs: the global credit impulse and the relative monetary policy stance.
The global credit impulse is my prop indicator that measures the pace of growth of credit creation amongst G5 economies
2/10
Credit creation is the real ''money printing'': when credit gets extended, new money is created out of thin air and handed over to the private sector
Commercial banks (net lending) and governments (net fiscal spending) are responsible for the lion share of credit creation.