Southern Africa: detected cases continue to rise in this region but the rate of growth appears to be slowing. If current trends hold, cases will peak in South Africa some time in the next week. 
Thus far, reported deaths remain extremely low in southern Africa, with the spike in Omicron cases not leading to any detectable increase in deaths.
This may be due to lag but so far trends indicate that Omicron will not likely driven significant mortality (in southern Africa).
This may be due to lag but so far trends indicate that Omicron will not likely driven significant mortality (in southern Africa).
This thread from South Africa shows that Omicron is not stressing the hospital system despite high case counts and low levels of restrictions (no lockdown, social distancing etc).
https://twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1469294811496820738
None of the nations in this region have high levels of vaccination but all have high levels of natural immunity, so if deaths remain low it would indicate 1 of 2 options:
a.) Omicron is intrinsically mild or b.) prior infection provides robust immunity against Omicron.
a.) Omicron is intrinsically mild or b.) prior infection provides robust immunity against Omicron.
The return of flu to southern Africa indicates that covid had receded into endemicity prior to Omicron.
It will be interesting to observe if Omicron is able to outcompete the flu in the coming weeks. If not, it will mean that this is southern Africa's first endemic variant.
It will be interesting to observe if Omicron is able to outcompete the flu in the coming weeks. If not, it will mean that this is southern Africa's first endemic variant.
For places with high natural immunity and returning flu (India, tropical Africa, Sweden) these trends show that Omicron may not pose much a threat.
It remains to be seen if areas with lower infections but high vaccination have a different experience.
It remains to be seen if areas with lower infections but high vaccination have a different experience.
It is also unclear if Omicron is intrinsically more infectious than Delta.
Omicron may have taken off in South Africa because almost everyone is already immune to Delta. The same can not be said of Europe, so we have no idea (yet) if Omicron will displace Delta everywhere.
Omicron may have taken off in South Africa because almost everyone is already immune to Delta. The same can not be said of Europe, so we have no idea (yet) if Omicron will displace Delta everywhere.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
