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Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
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11 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
No libertarians in a tornado.
Senate Republicans who opposed Hurricane Sandy relief after supporting relief for their own states.
archive.thinkprogress.org/31-senate-repu…
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) spoke about his opposition to the disaster aid bill in response to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria and wildfires in California.
c-span.org/video/?436237-…
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul explains decision to block funding for Louisiana recovery
kplctv.com/2021/08/06/rea…

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More from @aaronsojourner

Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
13 Dec
Younger American workers experienced average growth in their own hourly wages that significantly outpaced average price growth (CPI-U) over the last year.

Middle-aged workers' wage growth lagged price growth a bit.

@arindube's graph below inspired this analysis. Image
@arindube More detail here:
This differs from @BLS_gov's official real wage growth measure. That focuses on change in average hourly earnings among those employed now & those employed a year ago, mixing wage changes for people employed both times (what I focus on) with changes in the kind of people employed
Read 12 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
11 Dec
Zoomers' wages are growing really fast. Median over-the-year growth within worker into the last 3 months is almost 10%, but less fast than last 2 months showed.

Acceleration in prime-age and older workers too. Image
Splitting up the age groups more finely shows acceleration in a lot of age groups, though lots of noise. Image
The @AtlantaFed presents median over-the-year trends by age group averaging over the growth into the last 12 months, rather than the last 3 as I did.

What I'm doing is somewhat inadvisable due to noise & small sample. Life on the bleeding edge seeking to detect rapid change.
Read 14 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
5 Dec
Known: older Americans have exited the labor force in disproportionate numbers.

Unknown: how many will come back?

3.6 million more Americans are out of the labor force & not wanting a job now versus 2 years ago. Older Americans (55+) account for 90% of that increase.
What's affecting decision to work vs not?

⬇️value of Work: COVID risks, ⬇️job quality, lack of nominal wage acceleration.

⬆️value of Not Work: helping (grand)kids w/care, any new non-labor income/wealth.
Over a million extra retirements occurred early in the pandemic, per @KansasCityFed research.
kansascityfed.org/research/econo…
Read 13 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
3 Dec
Happy #JobsDay. Hope you’re staying healthy. #HappyHanukkah.

At 8:30 am ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.

Forecasts’ center:

+573K jobs
4.5% unemployment rate, down 0.1 percentage point (pp)
Americans have gained more income & enjoy higher levels of wealth than ever before.

We want to buy. Consumer and labor demand is high.
Biggest question in the economy: how quickly can we raise supply? Bring more labor & capital to production & boost productivity.

Success means more consumption & lower prices. COVID health risks at home & abroad remain the big obstacle, making work riskier.
Read 22 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
18 Nov
A silver lining from COVID's adoption of remote working options?

A higher share of Americans with a disability are employed now than pre-pandemic, 20.4%.

Meanwhile, employment rate for Americans with no disability remain below pre-pandemic.

=> shift in relative productivity?
A source of talent employers may overlook and should investigate.
Perhaps the pandemic caused disability among previously employed people?

Doesn't look like it. The populations with and without disability have grown at about the same rate since the start of the pandemic. Both trends indexed = 100 in Feb 2020.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
16 Nov
U.S. corporations have higher profits than ever before.
Profits ⬆️ 17% in the last 2 years. Image
U.S. equity investors enjoying record high stock market, consistent with record high expected future profits ahead.

Wilshire Total Market Full Cap Index ⬆️ 58% in the last 2 years. Image
U.S. workers have more job opportunities than ever on record.

In recent months, more openings in total or as a share of jobs than ever before in records back to two decades.

Job opening rate ⬆️47% in last 2 years, compared to pre-pandemic Sept 2019. Image
Read 25 tweets

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