Thread by @aaronsojourner

Zoomers' wages are growing really fast. Median over-the-year growth within worker into the last 3 months is almost 10%, but less fast than last 2 months showed.

Acceleration in prime-age and older workers too.

Splitting up the age groups more finely shows acceleration in a lot of age groups, though lots of noise.

The @AtlantaFed presents median over-the-year trends by age group averaging over the growth into the last 12 months, rather than the last 3 as I did.

What I'm doing is somewhat inadvisable due to noise & small sample. Life on the bleeding edge seeking to detect rapid change.

@AtlantaFed Here are 12-month versions for comparison. For Zoomers, it looks like wage growth is accelerating above 10%.

The quarter of workers who made the least in Sept-Nov 2020 had the fastest growth over the year to Sept-Nov 2021, a median within-worker growth rate of just under 6%.

2nd quartile also experienced acceleration, now growth almost as fast at 1st. Others slower.

Here are the 3- and 12- month moving averages of median wage growth in a few industries.

In the 3-month, there's little difference between Leisure & Hospitality, Trade & Transport, or Education & Hospitality... all around 4%.

In the 12-month, workers in these 3 sectors -- Construction & Mining, Finance & Business Services, and Manufacturing -- all also experienced median growth of about 4%.

Focusing on most recent months, Construction & Mining is a bit lower & others higher.

Wage growth for non-white workers looks to have accelerated up to 6%, but it's quite noisy so I want to see if the pattern holds.

Using the WGT 12-month average of median wage growth, we see job switchers at around 4% and stayers just over 3%.

But focusing on the most-recent 3 months shows recent acceleration in both series, with switchers around 5% and stayers around 4%.

Young (16-29 years old) switchers in recent months have wage median growth around 12%

Young stayers around 6%.

30-44 year old switchers around 6%, stayers around 4%.

45-59 year olds switchers a little above stayers, around 3%.

60+ year olds getting growth in the 2-3% range.

For 25% of people employed both recently & 12 months, their hourly wage grew by 16% or more. Just over 25% saw their wage decline.

Average growth (6.0%) > median (4.3%), given positive skew in over-the-year hourly wage growth rates into the last 3 months.