I shouldn't take it personally, but I am starting to feel rather gaslit by people (including experts) talking about omicron cases doubling every 3 days (or 2.5 days). I've plotted the data against different doubling rates below -- how fast do *you* think cases are doubling? Image
The graph above said "log scale" (I forgot to change the label), but it is obviously a linear scale (thanks @UncleJo46902375 ). Here's the correctly labelled version. Image
If you'd like to check my working (please do!), here are the data (two parts):

date newCases total
2021-11-2722
2021-11-2813
2021-11-29811
2021-11-301122
2021-12-011032
2021-12-021042
2021-12-0392134
2021-12-0426160
2021-12-0586246
2021-12-0690336

(cont'd)
date newCases total
2021-12-07101437
2021-12-08131568
2021-12-09249 817
2021-12-10448 1265
2021-12-11633 1898

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More from @ProfColinDavis

13 Dec
I'm continuing to see people talking about the rate at which sequenced Omicron cases are doubling as if it's a matter of interpretation, or something that different people could reasonably disagree on. It isn’t. It’s like 2+2.
Perhaps it would be useful for me to give a short tutorial on how to calculate doubling rates? It's actually very easy, when you know how. Is anyone interested in that?
OK, looks like there is some interest. So here's a short tutorial for people who never knew how to do this, or who are a bit rusty. I suspect there are a lot of people in this category, so I hope it’ll be useful to them. (I'll deal with qualifiers at the end of this thread).
Read 21 tweets
14 Nov
I feel a sense of deja vu, looking at Charnwood once again. It's interesting because it's one of those places where schools go back earlier than other parts of England, so it's a kind of canary in the Covid mine. Rates have grown steeply there in the last week in 5-14 year olds. Image
Although school age children have by far the highest rates in Charnwood, there is one adult age group that is catching up: 40-44 year olds. This is a familiar pattern. Image
The short thread below was the last time I looked at Charnwood. Showing typical caution in causal attribution I noted that the increase *could* just reflect "back-to-school testing". What happened subsequently suggests it wasn't.

Image
Read 6 tweets
12 Nov
Inspired by this thread, I thought I'd take a look back at some early (read: premature) assessments of the Covid situation among children following the return to school (in September and November). 🧵
I don't particularly mean to pick on @apsmunro (sorry if it seems like that). He's hardly the only optimist here -- this example is simply representative of a certain part of Covid Twitter in the first couple of weeks after schools went back in September.
Having said that, I do find it rather curious that a paediatrician would present a graph showing that many thousands of children were testing postive each day in England as cause for celebration or reassurance.
Read 14 tweets
6 Nov
Covid rates are down, so are we out of the woods? I'm afraid I'm pessimistic. Here's a thread 🧵on what's happened with rates lately and where things might be going (and another plea for additional measures beyond vaccines).
Rates among 10-14 year olds in England have see-sawed over the last month and a half. Not that they've ever got *low*, but the decline since half-term means that the latest rates are more or less equal to the rates on 19th September. (Note that the decline is flattening now).
The same can't be said for what's happened with adult rates over the same period-- those have gone up steadily, by 75% on average (rates have doubled in many groups, but increases have been much smaller among those in their 20s and 80s).
Read 9 tweets
30 Oct
It's been a long wait (it always is with JCVI) but we can finally read the JCVI minutes.

So let's take a look at their arguments against vaccination. 🧵
I'll focus on minutes from Thurs 13 May 2021, which sets out the arguments against vaccination. This has been attracting some attention, understandably, as it confirms the panel's interest in #HerdImmunityViaInfection

For a more comprehensive thread:
"Children rarely develop severe disease or die of COVID-19; even children with underlying comorbidities have a very low risk".

Really?

Over 10,000 children have been hospitalised in UK.

Over 100 children have died.

Over 10,000 have been ill for over a year (ONS estimate).
Read 16 tweets
28 Oct
Last week I posted this thread about void PCR results. Today the latest testing stats were published, offering an opportunity to check if all the problems affecting testing have been resolved. They haven't - there are more void results than ever. Something is wrong with testing. Image
The raw data can be downloaded from here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
to be clear, the main reason for being interested in the % of void results is not that people misinterpret them as meaning they’re safe to go out (thought that probably happens). It’s that a high % of voids is a signal that something is going wrong in the testing process.
Read 6 tweets

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