Last week I posted this thread about void PCR results. Today the latest testing stats were published, offering an opportunity to check if all the problems affecting testing have been resolved. They haven't - there are more void results than ever. Something is wrong with testing.
to be clear, the main reason for being interested in the % of void results is not that people misinterpret them as meaning they’re safe to go out (thought that probably happens). It’s that a high % of voids is a signal that something is going wrong in the testing process.
All sorts of things could potentially lead to voids. This (leaked?) document from last year reports that – back then – the most common reason for voids across labs was a leaked sample.
In the case of the Immensa lab there’s been some talk of an equipment failure, though I don't know if that's been confirmed.
The regions with the most voids change from week to week. But the worst affected regions in October have been the South East, the Midlands and the North West.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
It's been a long wait (it always is with JCVI) but we can finally read the JCVI minutes.
So let's take a look at their arguments against vaccination. 🧵
I'll focus on minutes from Thurs 13 May 2021, which sets out the arguments against vaccination. This has been attracting some attention, understandably, as it confirms the panel's interest in #HerdImmunityViaInfection
THREAD. Encouraged by @fascinatorfun, I've been taking a look at NHS Test & Trace data on void PCR results, hoping this might shed light on how different regions have been affected by the #Immensa lab failure. TL;DR there is a problem affecting labs, but not just for the SW.
If you’ve taken a PCR test, it’s possible (though not likely) that you’ll have had one of these - a void result. It means that the lab wasn’t able to read the sample, or some other problem prevented a definitive result (so you need to do another test). nhs.uk/conditions/cor…
@fascinatorfun noted that voids “often give a clue as to whether there are equipment issues, training needs or overstretched capacity resulting in people rushing and taking short cuts”. And as @OliasDave has shown, the void data are weird.
The 7-day rolling rates for 10-14s in the South West continue to rise alarmingly. In Cheltenham the rate has now reached 6900/100k (for comparison, Kettering, which previously had the highest ever rate for this age group, peaked at 6304/100k). Here's the graph since 1 September.
And for context, if we zoom out over the last year, the graph looks like this. I guess it's a relief that the half-term break is here, but I hope the holidays won't involve lots of socialising with extended family ...
In case you're wondering, having overtaken Kettering, Cheltenham moves into third place in the highest rolling rates in any year group. Second place is held by Nottingham 15-19 year olds (more specifically, 18 year olds in university halls at the start of term last year).
Now that Covid samples from the South West are being sent to a different lab, rolling rates are undergoing a rather dramatic adjustment. Here's a thread 🧵illustrating that, focusing on the rates for 10-14 year olds.
As a reminder, samples from the South West were being sent to a lab that (for reasons that have not yet been explained) was producing a high rate of false negatives.
This thread from yesterday noted that it was already apparent in September that something was fishy.
The case numbers for the South West of England had quite a few of us scratching our heads in September ... 🧵
I only just made that last graph now, and you might say it's easy to see in hindsight, but here's @OliasDave plotting the data a month ago (and already then, "Still convinced there is something odd going on").
This graph, also from @OliasDave in September, is a particularly nice way of visualising how weird the results for the South West were relative to the rest of the country.
I've focused on Wellingborough and Trafford previously, so let's take a look at Ipswich, which has the third highest rolling rate in the UK.
In the recent spike, cases initially took off around September 15th, among 10-14s (following a pattern seen all around the country). The increase among 15-19s was less steep, presumably reflecting the fact that many in the latter group are vaccinated.
A week later, around September 22, we start to see cases taking off among those in their 40s. "Parents!", you say. I couldn't possibly comment.