⚠️OMICRON “EVADES” NEUTRALIZATION—1st ever #Omicron variant study of blood from Moderna, Oxford-AstraZeneca, Pfizer vaccinated, vs survivors of Alpha, Beta, Delta variants. Omicron #B11529 evasive—but 2x Pfizer/mixed stronger>> convalescent; 3x hit best.🧵 medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) “We found that sera from vaccinated individuals neutralized the B.1.1.529 variant to a much lesser extent than any other variant analyzed. Neutralization capacity against #Omicron was maintained best against sera of “infected + 2x vaccinated” or “2x vaccinated + infected”
3) it’s clear vaccine neutralization of #Omicron is much harder than any other variants tested - Alpha, Beta, or Delta. Though 2 doses of Pfizer or Pfizer+AstraZeneca mixed vaccination had somewhat better performance against #Omicron. But 2x AstraZeneca not good enough.
4) I’m kind of surprised that 2x doses of Pfizer showed stronger benefit than 2x doses of Moderna. Moderna is a >3 times the dose. But the author says it might be due to interval difference. Will want to see more duration data.
5) I think it’s clear we need boosters. But also maybe variant-adapted newly #Omicron-tailored vaccines in the near future.
6) This above Innsbruck neutralization study matches the drop in vaccine effectiveness seen in the UK — where 2x shots of Oxford-AstraZeneca has little benefit without a booster, and 2 shots of Pfizer slightly better but still only in the low to mid 30% VE without a booster.
7) So how bad is the VE data for 2 AZ doses? Well let’s walk through it… the table tells more about the efficacy against #Omicron beyond the figures above. 2 shots of Oxford-AstraZeneca don’t even have enough data for those <25 weeks. But for 25+ weeks, the 5.9% VE stood out.
8) Another study found that those infected with the original strain much sharper drop off in ability to neutralize #Omicron. ➡️Bottomline: DO NOT RELY ON PAST INFECTION TO PROTECT YOU from Omicron! Get vaccinated / boosted!
9) Semi-good/bad news with 2 shots of Pfizer, the VE starts at 88% between 2-9 weeks after the 2nd shot. Good, but it quickly drops to 48.5% by weeks 10-14. Then drops to 31% by 15-19 weeks. Then it hovers at 36.6% at 20-24 weeks. Then 34.2% at 25+ weeks. But 75.5% w/ booster!👀
10) By now, i hope everyone understands how much worse #Omicron is in evading vaccines and past infection immunity —by leaps and bounds worse by old strain and worse than Delta. We need some radical realism, not delusional dismissive ness that Omicron won’t hit hard. Booster now!
HIGHEST kids COVID hospitalization ever in England 🏴 of the whole pandemic… ➡️ But but but… I thought some politicians & economist had once said “kids are practically immune” to #COVID19. 🤦🏻♂️
3) a 3 million person Danish study shows more kids in a household, more transmission. This is why we need to vaccinate to both protect kids and protect others in the household.
“You can’t chase an exponential virus” with a govt rollout of boosters alone. You need to do more IMMEDIATELY to stop the exponential growth. #Omicron doubling in 🇬🇧 every 1.7 days ➡️ BoJo’s booster-only plan cannot stop fast enough. The political willpower to save lives matters.
2) UK’s growth also isn’t even the fastest anymore. Denmark has now topped it at 1.6 days per doubling of #Omicron.
3) BoJo is right that we need to set aside whether it’s “mild” or not (it’s no proven, and many epidemiologists doubt it). The acceleration of #Omicron is what will kill more.
NEW—Norway will ban the serving of alcohol in bars & restaurants, impose stricter rules in schools & speed up vaccinations to limit an expected surge of the #Omicron variant. 🇳🇴 just set record highs in both #COVID19 cases & hospitalizations. abc.net.au/news/2021-12-1…
2) Norway is setting record highs both in terms of new COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations, partly due to the spread of Omicron, which is expected to become the dominant variant in the coming days.
3) "A lack of action now could lead to large negative consequences for society, not just for health services and municipalities," the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (FHI) said.
📍NEW RECORD holder: Denmark🇩🇰 has now surpassed UK🇬🇧 in #Omicron growth rate—🇩🇰 now doubling every **1.6 days**, while 🇬🇧 doubling every 1.7 days. Meanwhile, 🇿🇦 is doubling every 3 days—still fast. But we may have to revise how fast Omicron truly is.
2) To be clear, Denmark & UK are world leaders in genome 🧬 sequencing to confirm #Omicron. Hence their rates stand above the rest of the 🌍 in Omicron tracking. But their number numbers are indeed more accurate because of high sequencing—thus gives true Omicron speed. Forecast—
3) KEEP IN MIND— Speed of spread is >> importance than severity in a pandemic—a lower severity won’t prevent mass hospitalization deaths if the virus is more contagious / evasive against past immunity. Exponential math will catch up ultimately much faster in the end. See 🧵 below
NEW—“Omicron is producing hospitalizations & sadly at least 1 patient has now died with #Omicron. The idea that this is somehow a milder version of virus—we need to set [aside] & recognize the sheer pace at which it accelerates.” @BorisJohnson#COVID19
3) U.K. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the number of Omicron infections “is doubling every two to three days,” and warned, “we’re in a new race, whether we like it or not, between the virus and the vaccine.”