So #NorthShropshire
How should I vote?
It depends largely on what you think is happening to the Conservative vote.
1. Low turnout - which in theory brings Labour into play who were 2nd last time
2. Tories Switching to LibDems
But the question you need to answer is..
How should I vote?
It depends largely on what you think is happening to the Conservative vote.
1. Low turnout - which in theory brings Labour into play who were 2nd last time
2. Tories Switching to LibDems
But the question you need to answer is..
“Is the low turnout of Tory voters big enough to bring Labour in?”
Other people may disagree but my view is - no it isn’t here.
To take the seat you need to get actual “vote switching” and in North Shropshire that’s far easier for LibDems to achieve.
So next question is..
Other people may disagree but my view is - no it isn’t here.
To take the seat you need to get actual “vote switching” and in North Shropshire that’s far easier for LibDems to achieve.
So next question is..
If plenty of Tories switch to LibDems can Labour vote tactically too?
This is why LibDems sacrificed a strong presence in Old Bexley - to get support from Labour to see is this cooperation can work.
In other words theres more riding on North Shropshire than just a by-election…
This is why LibDems sacrificed a strong presence in Old Bexley - to get support from Labour to see is this cooperation can work.
In other words theres more riding on North Shropshire than just a by-election…
This is the prize:
To convince both Labour & LibDems that trade offs can work.
At this point it’s less about wining an additional seat the tories will likely regain next GE…it’s about preparing parties nationally & locally for electoral pacts.
To convince both Labour & LibDems that trade offs can work.
At this point it’s less about wining an additional seat the tories will likely regain next GE…it’s about preparing parties nationally & locally for electoral pacts.
That’s why as a Labour supporter it suits my goals more if the LibDems can get closer to the Tory total - & maybe just maybe win the seat.
Winter by-elections in safe seats are notorious for low turnouts.
It’s not implausible that the Tory turnout halves.
Thus 20 000 could be enough to win the seat here.
It’s doable.
But only with tactical voting + Tory switchers.
And that means LibDems for me.
It’s not implausible that the Tory turnout halves.
Thus 20 000 could be enough to win the seat here.
It’s doable.
But only with tactical voting + Tory switchers.
And that means LibDems for me.
It’s a hard choice for electorate - but that’s FPTP for you.
If Tory vote collapses by 2 thirds & labour *merely* holds its vote - labour wins.
But I think this is less likely than a 50% Tory turnout fall with tories switching to LibDems.
On balance LibDems more likely.
/ends
If Tory vote collapses by 2 thirds & labour *merely* holds its vote - labour wins.
But I think this is less likely than a 50% Tory turnout fall with tories switching to LibDems.
On balance LibDems more likely.
/ends
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