Is it possible to make any sound conclusions about the state of US - Russia dialogue over Ukraine and NATO already today? Obviously there way too many variables but I've tried to outline there major developments. Thread 1/6
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Isolation of Russia is over. We will have a lot more meetings, summits and various negotiation formats. And this is good. The half-isolations of the last 7 years proved to be pointless. For as long as Putin is ready to talk, it is cheaper to listen.
2/6
2/6
Russia-NATO status-quo is over. Something will have to change. Too soon to tell which way it would go - obviously Article 10 would not be altered but there are ambitious yet hard options that could be investigated. It is crucial to be open and keep in mind that Russia
3/6
3/6
would also need to compromise. It doesn't have to be a loss for the West. A version of new CFE treaty should be on the table.
US is already becoming part of Minsk, Biden made it clear he will press Kyiv to unblock peace process.
4/6
US is already becoming part of Minsk, Biden made it clear he will press Kyiv to unblock peace process.
4/6
Moscow signals that it would take this seriously once Steinmeier Formula is back on the table and is prepared to be incorporated into Ukrainian law. Maybe Donfried visit will help clear things out.
This is good not because it right but because the alternative is horrible.
5/6
This is good not because it right but because the alternative is horrible.
5/6
None of this means military escalation is off the table and it is imperative to keep talking.
Putin is not crazy, his primary goal is to survive politically for as long as possible. Even the fact that he is ready to risk does not mean that he will.
6/6
Putin is not crazy, his primary goal is to survive politically for as long as possible. Even the fact that he is ready to risk does not mean that he will.
6/6
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