Thread by @ABarbashin

Kortunov of @Russian_Council published a piece arguing that there would be no war between Russia and Ukraine. Let's look at his key thesis. Thread

1. People who argue they know what Putin wants, how he thinks and what exactly his logic is - are wrong.
- I tend to agree but it nevertheless doesn't mean we can't make reasonable assessments and arguments based on past experience, statements and context. Approximation at best

2. If Putin was preparing a real massive attack on Ukraine we would have not known about it. Look at Crimea.
- Well, Crimea was a special operation not a large offensive. So, this case is a bit different in scale.
But I do agree that what see is about signaling first

3. It is a signal to Zelensky not to attempt to take over Donbas with force. "Georgia 2008"
- yeah, that's quite off. What we are looking at is Russia's own assertive action and it is clearly aimed at Washington more than it is aimed at Kyiv

4. It is also a signal to the West that does not help with Minsk II implementation. Moscow is frustrated.
- Big time!

5. Kremlin sees NATO, without officially incorporating Ukraine, de-facto advancing its infrastructure on its territory with a potential to expand it in the future.
- It is of course speaks volumes about Kremlin's own insecurities and fear projections. But it is how they think.

6. Kremlin's demand for guarantees is an invitation to agree on inclusive system of security in Europe.
- this is something Russia has been proposing for over a decade. This is THE conversation.

7. Russia's "red lines" aren't exactly red lines - they are negotiations positions and thus could be discussed.
- 146%, yes.

8. We can't exclude the risk of a major conflict.
- i think we all know that.

Here is Kortunov's piece russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-…;
And here is a link to my piece on this for @RiddleRussia
ridl.io/en/will-russia…