This is convenient because we can just average them to get an idea of the REAL state of the race. That gives us a Kemp lead of 49–35%, but a Perdue lead of 48–39% post-endorsement.
Notably, the pre-endorsement question in the Perdue poll was just a head-to-head between Perdue and Kemp, omitting the other candidates. I bet they had to do that to get Perdue in the lead; the post-endorsement question suggests Vernon Jones et al. are pulling a significant share
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Despite Ohio's 2018 redistricting reform, this map is heavily biased toward Republicans. It has a R+16 efficiency gap and creates 11 🔴, 2 🔵, and 2 🟣 seats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
O'Rourke is young. He'd have been smarter to wait for 2026 or 2030—whenever there's next a Republican president, and also when Texas will have shifted even bluer than it is now. #TXgov
@FiveThirtyEight It doesn't change the overall landscape too much in California but several individual districts were affected. For instance, in the Central Valley, Devin Nunes's district is now D+5, and Josh Harder's district has been blown up. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The four maps are very similar. All create 14 🔴 seats, 8 🔵 seats, and 6 🟣 seats. They have a mild GOP bias, but it's pretty shocking Republicans didn't try to gerrymander them further. They left a lot of seats on the table. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The maps leave #FL05 and #FL07 intact (though #FL07 does get 4 points redder). The biggest changes came in the I-4 corridor, where #FL09 becomes safe 🔵, a safe 🔴 #FL28 is created, #FL15 goes from 🔴 to 🟣, and #FL14 goes from 🔵 to 🟣.
@FiveThirtyEight This map redistributes the Dem vote currently in #NV01 to shore up #NV03 and #NV04. But another way of looking at it is that NV went from 1 safe 🔵 seat to 0.
This is kinda of the Dem version of Iowa's map. In neutral-to-blue environments, it should sustain a 3 🔵, 1 🔴 delegation. But in a red environment, it could easily be 4 🔴, 0 🔵. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Finally, after further research, we have determined that Arkansas's map IS law and we've marked it as such. That makes 8 completed states. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
In Arkansas, if the governor doesn't sign or veto a bill, it becomes law 20 days after the legislature adjourns IF the bill is delivered to the gov within 5 days of adjournment. But our friends at All About Redistricting discovered that that doesn't apply here…