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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
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22 Nov, 4 tweets, 3 min read
On Saturday, Gov. Mike DeWine signed this Ohio congressional map into law. It is only good through the 2024 election, though. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Despite Ohio's 2018 redistricting reform, this map is heavily biased toward Republicans. It has a R+16 efficiency gap and creates 11 🔴, 2 🔵, and 2 🟣 seats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map eliminates Dem-held #OH13 and puts Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur in an R+8 seat. However, it also creates new competitive districts around Cincinnati (#OH01) and Cleveland (#OH13). projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Ohio is the 15th state to complete congressional redistricting. Add in the 6 at-large states, and 21 states already have new maps! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…

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Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
15 Nov
If O'Rourke couldn't win in 2018, he's going to have a very difficult time winning in 2022, a better year for Republicans. #TXgov
And as @AlexSamuelsx5 and Mary Radcliffe wrote, this may be O'Rourke's last chance to run for something before he's considered a joke candidate: fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-m…
O'Rourke is young. He'd have been smarter to wait for 2026 or 2030—whenever there's next a Republican president, and also when Texas will have shifted even bluer than it is now. #TXgov
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
11 Nov
Drumroll please...

California's draft congressional map is now up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight This map features 39 🔵 seats, 7 🔴 seats, and 6 🟣 seats. Like the current map, it is moderately skewed toward Democrats. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight It doesn't change the overall landscape too much in California but several individual districts were affected. For instance, in the Central Valley, Devin Nunes's district is now D+5, and Josh Harder's district has been blown up. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 6 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
10 Nov
The Florida state Senate has released four proposed congressional maps. Up and analyzed on @FiveThirtyEight: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The four maps are very similar. All create 14 🔴 seats, 8 🔵 seats, and 6 🟣 seats. They have a mild GOP bias, but it's pretty shocking Republicans didn't try to gerrymander them further. They left a lot of seats on the table. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The maps leave #FL05 and #FL07 intact (though #FL07 does get 4 points redder). The biggest changes came in the I-4 corridor, where #FL09 becomes safe 🔵, a safe 🔴 #FL28 is created, #FL15 goes from 🔴 to 🟣, and #FL14 goes from 🔵 to 🟣.
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
9 Nov
The Nevada legislature unveiled a proposed congressional map today. Up and analyzed on @FiveThirtyEight: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… Image
@FiveThirtyEight This map redistributes the Dem vote currently in #NV01 to shore up #NV03 and #NV04. But another way of looking at it is that NV went from 1 safe 🔵 seat to 0.

#NV01: D+22 -> D+4
#NV03: R+5 -> D+2
#NV04 R+1 -> D+5

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
This is kinda of the Dem version of Iowa's map. In neutral-to-blue environments, it should sustain a 3 🔵, 1 🔴 delegation. But in a red environment, it could easily be 4 🔴, 0 🔵. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
1 Nov
Finally, after further research, we have determined that Arkansas's map IS law and we've marked it as such. That makes 8 completed states. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
As @RedistrictNet pointed out, the new Arkansas map went from a "bill" to an "act" on Oct. 13, per the legislature's website: arkleg.state.ar.us/Bills/Detail?i… ...
In Arkansas, if the governor doesn't sign or veto a bill, it becomes law 20 days after the legislature adjourns IF the bill is delivered to the gov within 5 days of adjournment. But our friends at All About Redistricting discovered that that doesn't apply here…
Read 6 tweets
Nathaniel Rakich Profile picture
1 Nov
The Colorado Supreme Court has approved the state's new congressional map: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map creates 4 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and 1 🟣 seat. It has a slight GOP bias; Dems could have drawn themselves a much better map if they hadn't voted to create an independent commission. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Hispanic advocacy groups are upset with the map, however, because it doesn't have a plurality-Hispanic seat (CO is 21% Hispanic). The closest is the new #CO08, which has a 35% Hispanic VAP. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets

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