Here's why non-Ethereum L1s will win.
(as argued by @zhusu on his podcast Uncommon Core in a conversation with @hasufl)
π // thread // π
(as argued by @zhusu on his podcast Uncommon Core in a conversation with @hasufl)
π // thread // π
CONTEXT: @zhusu is now seen as a crypto villain after claiming Ethereum has abandoned its users.
This added gas to the Eth mainnet/L1/L2 debate that's been raging for months.
Below is the argument he lays out for the succession of Ethereum by alt L1s, point by point.
This added gas to the Eth mainnet/L1/L2 debate that's been raging for months.
Below is the argument he lays out for the succession of Ethereum by alt L1s, point by point.
I'll do my best to summarize @zhusu's argument in an organized and extremely condensed way.
This will omit, simplify, and rearrange. You should listen to the podcast if you want to know exactly what he thinks.
This is not my opinion (but I'm pretty compelled by the argument).
This will omit, simplify, and rearrange. You should listen to the podcast if you want to know exactly what he thinks.
This is not my opinion (but I'm pretty compelled by the argument).
1. ETHEREUM IS NOT OPTIMIZED AS A SMART CONTRACT PLATFORM
Eth has validity as a store of value, but it's made sacrifices that mean it's no longer #1 for smart contracts.
β’ Costs $15k to deploy new contracts
β’ New users onboard elsewhere
β’ Diminishing network effects
Eth has validity as a store of value, but it's made sacrifices that mean it's no longer #1 for smart contracts.
β’ Costs $15k to deploy new contracts
β’ New users onboard elsewhere
β’ Diminishing network effects
2. NEW USERS DON'T COME TO ETH
Anyone with under $10k, $50k, or even $100k will find it financially inviable to onboard to Ethereum.
Therefore, they look for cheaper chains. This prevents new users/value from being captured.
They may invest in $ETH, but they won't onboard.
Anyone with under $10k, $50k, or even $100k will find it financially inviable to onboard to Ethereum.
Therefore, they look for cheaper chains. This prevents new users/value from being captured.
They may invest in $ETH, but they won't onboard.
3. NEW DEVS DON'T BUILD ON ETH
The best products are on alt L1s, because new users are on alt L1s, and the best builders want to reach new users.
This is demonstrated in the way many new recent innovations have flown to eth, not vice versa...
Mirror Protocol β‘οΈ SNX
The best products are on alt L1s, because new users are on alt L1s, and the best builders want to reach new users.
This is demonstrated in the way many new recent innovations have flown to eth, not vice versa...
Mirror Protocol β‘οΈ SNX
And in the way that some carbon-copy projects are more successful on alt L1s than on Mainnet
( $TIME on $AVAX > $OHM on $ETH)
Perhaps OG $ETH devs are less incentivized to build because they're already wealthy.
( $TIME on $AVAX > $OHM on $ETH)
Perhaps OG $ETH devs are less incentivized to build because they're already wealthy.
4. L2s HAVE NOT DELIVERED
The promise of L2s has not come true. There is more:
β’ activity
β’ new users
β’ liquidity
on other L1s than on rollups.
Maybe someday L2s can deliver, but for now, it makes more sense to onboard to a new L1 than a new L2.
The promise of L2s has not come true. There is more:
β’ activity
β’ new users
β’ liquidity
on other L1s than on rollups.
Maybe someday L2s can deliver, but for now, it makes more sense to onboard to a new L1 than a new L2.
5. NEW USERS WANT TO BE 'EARLY'
New users want to be 'early' and participate in the wealth creation of a scaling L1.
Is Ethereum a dinosaur that can no longer 100x or 1000x?
Maybe price action can confirm/deny:
$ETH and $BTC - flat since May
L1s - π
New users want to be 'early' and participate in the wealth creation of a scaling L1.
Is Ethereum a dinosaur that can no longer 100x or 1000x?
Maybe price action can confirm/deny:
$ETH and $BTC - flat since May
L1s - π
6. NEW TECH WINS
In the past we've seen that, if two competing technologies have the same roadmap, the newer tech often wins.
ETH has a leg up in terms of decentralization, but perhaps other chains that:
β’ scale/add users first
β’ decentralize later
will have the advantage.
In the past we've seen that, if two competing technologies have the same roadmap, the newer tech often wins.
ETH has a leg up in terms of decentralization, but perhaps other chains that:
β’ scale/add users first
β’ decentralize later
will have the advantage.
7. THE RACE TO A BILLION USERS
What chain will be the first chain to a billion users?
An ideological chain that focuses on superior tech and decentralization?
Or a system that deploys apps/smart contracts to people as cheaply and scalably as possible?
What chain will be the first chain to a billion users?
An ideological chain that focuses on superior tech and decentralization?
Or a system that deploys apps/smart contracts to people as cheaply and scalably as possible?
8. L2s WILL NOT 'FIX' ETHEREUM
The Ethereum response to this would be: "well, once L2 scaling is viable and functional, users will come to L2s."
Well perhaps by then, the flywheel effect will already have begun on other L1s and the L2s will have a difficult time catching up.
The Ethereum response to this would be: "well, once L2 scaling is viable and functional, users will come to L2s."
Well perhaps by then, the flywheel effect will already have begun on other L1s and the L2s will have a difficult time catching up.
Those are the eight arguments that I distilled from the following podcast.
As stated previously, these arguments have been simplified, distilled, and reorganized.
But no matter what your opinion is on the debate, it's worth a listen.
As stated previously, these arguments have been simplified, distilled, and reorganized.
But no matter what your opinion is on the debate, it's worth a listen.
If you found this thread interesting, please do me a favor by favoriting/RTing the first tweet, linked below for your convenience. π
https://twitter.com/JackNiewold/status/1470950727073861633?s=20
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