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17 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
South Africa: death rate among covid hospitalized down 66% in all age groups. Also, hospitalization rate down 91% (see next tweet).

Take together, CFR down >97% with Omicron in South Africa.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
What could explain this trend in South Africa?

a. Omicron intrinsically mild
b. Mildness specific to southern Africa
c. High immunity from prior infection
d. Testing catching more mild infections
e. Seasonality (Summer)
With only 25% vaccinated and no boosters, vaccines can only have played a moderate role in reducing severity.

Standard lag between case - hospital - death doesn't appear to be a significant cause, either, given the length of time Omicron has been spreading in South Africa.
Cases also appear to have peaked already in South Africa.

It really does appear that Omicron will be the first of many, many endemic waves of Covid-19 in Southern Africa.

So long as we keep testing, we will continue to see these seasonal waves - for the rest of our lives.

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PLC Profile picture
17 Dec
Denmark now has the highest covid cases in the world (excluding microstates) despite having vaccinated 80% of the population and boosted 24%.

Remember when we were told vaccines were 100% effective against infection and that there would be no more waves once we go to 50% vax?
Remember back in September when Denmark declared victory and said with 80% vaccinated Covid there was no longer any need for social restrictions?

npr.org/2021/09/10/103…
Now, just a few months later, Denmark is closing schools, shutting down public accommodations - essentially locking down the economy once again.

msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
Read 6 tweets
PLC Profile picture
14 Dec
1 billion people live in central Africa and less than 5% have been fully vaccinated. Somehow, there have been fewer than 43K covid deaths reported in this region, total, since the beginning of the pandemic.

Has any modeler, PH official, or epidemiologist explained this?
The median age in this region is ~18 and obesity is low to moderate, so part of the answer is a lack of susceptible population.

But, based upon flu patterns, the covid pandemic lasted only a few months in this region - and the flu has been a larger concern for over a year.
Lack of testing doesn't explain this, either, as Rwanda has performed nearly as many tests per capital as Moldova, for instance, with 25 times fewer deaths.
Read 5 tweets
PLC Profile picture
10 Dec
Southern Africa: detected cases continue to rise in this region but the rate of growth appears to be slowing. If current trends hold, cases will peak in South Africa some time in the next week. Image
Thus far, reported deaths remain extremely low in southern Africa, with the spike in Omicron cases not leading to any detectable increase in deaths.

This may be due to lag but so far trends indicate that Omicron will not likely driven significant mortality (in southern Africa). Image
This thread from South Africa shows that Omicron is not stressing the hospital system despite high case counts and low levels of restrictions (no lockdown, social distancing etc).

Read 7 tweets
PLC Profile picture
9 Dec
During the past 4 weeks, 78% of reported Covid deaths in England were vaccinated.

Unvaccinated people under 50 account for less than 3% of covid deaths in England. In fact, people under 50 account for less than 5% of covid deaths, vaccinated or not.
Data can be found on page 33...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Using CFR as a proxy for VE against death, it appears there is very strong efficacy for those aged 60-79 which moderates somewhat over 80.

However, people are not randomly assigned to the vax/no vax group and a CFR of 34% indicates that many unvax'd are seriously unwell.
Read 4 tweets
PLC Profile picture
6 Dec
Through mid-November, in 2021 Sweden has recorded their 2nd fewest deaths from all causes of any year in this century (only 2019 had fewer deaths).
2019 had extraordinarily few deaths in Sweden, followed by a period of excess in 2020 then a short period of few deaths. Since W15, mortality has returned to normal.

Sweden covid deaths were displaced but inevitable (dry tinder).

This is what a pandemic looks like without panic
In a nation of 10.3 million people, the net impact of covid was ~2000 excess deaths between 2019 and 2021.

Imagine how many more people would be alive today if all the world had followed Sweden's sane, measured, response.
Read 5 tweets
PLC Profile picture
14 Nov
Potentially great news from the SE USA - the flu has apparently returned to college campuses, with outbreaks reported at FSU, Florida, Georgia, and FAMU.

During prior pandemics, the return of endemic flu signaled the end of the pandemic.
Throughout the SE, covid cases have plummeted off the late summer wave. At this point last year, cases were beginning to rise for Winter.

If cases remain low and the return of the flu is confirmed, the SE USA may indeed have joined Africa and much of Asia in endemicity.
The latest estimates (to be taken with a grain of salt) from Yale, Harvard, and Stanford are that >68% of the population in the SE has already been infected and recovered from covid, which may be enough to signal the transition to endemicity.

covidestim.org
Read 4 tweets

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