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Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
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18 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I'm also puzzled by this- it's not a pattern that seems restricted to Gauteng, but cases seem to be peaking in provinces & districts in order of spread in SA. The rate of spread to me seems inconsistent with the attack rates predicted by usual transmission dynamics. Thoughts?
Important to understand this to try and see what this might mean for other countries. Certainly not the pattern that would be expected on the face of it.
Want to stress again that this isn't a pattern restricted to parts of Gauteng- it's also being seen in Limpopo, and parts of KZN, so it's not an explanation that would apply to one part of SA.
Also, I did think perhaps there was behavioural change, but mobility data at least don't show any declines, so if there has been behaviour change, it's not reflected in mobility at least.

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More from @dgurdasani1

Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
20 Dec
On @TimesRadio with @MattChorley just now - who for some reason invited me on as an expert, didn't like it when I challenged his flawed narratives on SAGE modelling, and then never gave me a chance to respond - and hung up on me when challenged!
This is MSM- and they are very much responsible - as I said in my interview for putting out false narratives. I mean saying that modelling is flawed because we didn't have 200K predicted deaths in yr 1 of the pandemic is just lazy. We acted- we locked down in response to crises.
What do you think would've happened had we not? There has been a lot of uncertainty in SAGE modelling, which the modellers acknowledge clearly- and media often picks on one scenario to critique them. Not even acknowledging that action was taken in response.
Read 8 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
19 Dec
If you want to know what it's like being a Brown female scientist, this tweet captures what I deal with every day. Despite having called most things right & advocated for early response to protect public health and lives, time & time again, I'm attacked & abused. 🧵
Very few people know, let alone understand, what it's like being an outspoken woman of colour in academia. If you want to know I'd recommend talking to some. It hurts. Every day.
I've been outspoken and challenged injustice all through my career, from medical school to now. I've suffered *hugely* as a result.
Those who've known me for a while will know that I was dismissed from the @sangerinstitute after whistleblowing.
Read 26 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
19 Dec
@MerylSwanLake @mugecevik @kallmemeg I don't really want to relive it by pulling out the tweets, but Muge has said that I'm such a bad example of scicomm that she would use me in her teaching. Meaghan has said I get paid by the Citizens for what i do which is why I have loads of time to write BMJ pieces etc.
@MerylSwanLake @mugecevik @kallmemeg She never apologised despite this being wrong and slanderous. When I contacted a HT in a school with an outbreak to understand the process for reporting outbreaks, she also said I had breached data protection guidelines, and was akin to HIV research where patients are identified.
@MerylSwanLake @mugecevik @kallmemeg I actually headed up the UK HIV genomics consortium, and ethical issues around this are very serious, and I honestly cannot believe someone would ever say something like this- it's insulting, offensive, in so many ways.
Read 5 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
16 Dec
It's important to understand that this wave is going to be different from previous waves in many ways. Every wave so far in the UK, the govt has acted late- when the NHS was already quite overwhelmed. This time doing this will be far far more dangerous- here's why. Thread
We know that there is a lag between cases & hospitalisations rising. This means that even if we act to curb spread today, hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise for 2-3 weeks because those who will be hospitalised and die in the next 2-3 wks have already been infected.
So every time the govt has taken action, with the NHS severely strained, the situation has continued to get worse for 2-3 weeks in terms of hospitalisations and deaths before getting better. Which means strain on the NHS continues to rise for a period even after we act.
Read 11 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
14 Dec
I really thought that perhaps omicron would wake people up to the fact that 'living with' this virus isn't really going to be possible - unless we accept mass death & suffering, and develop an understanding that we need globally coordinated progressive suppression. 🧵
But for many people including scientists omicron has actually strengthened the idea of 'living with it' and dropping all mitigations. This is an extremely privileged take, & completely ignores that the impacts of such policy would be devastating on the most disadvantaged.
So unless you're willing to spell out the consequences of your plans clearly and honestly (mass death, especially among the poor, disabled, vulnerable, elderly, ethnic minorities), and own that this is what you're advocating for society to accept, please don't recommend it.
Read 4 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
14 Dec
I've seen people use 'uncertainty' around aspects of evidence to justify inaction. Uncertainty in evidence *does not* mean uncertainty in policy. As I've said, while there's a lot of uncertainty around the exact impact of omicron, there's little doubt that it'll be severe🧵
Same with long COVID. The greater the uncertainty, the more the need for caution, and the more the need for early action. Even the best-case scenarios look very concerning with omicron. So please don't use uncertainty as an excuse for inaction. Inaction will kill in a pandemic.
Best to act early, quickly & scale back if the response was an overreaction. I can safely say that I've not seen any overreaction in UK pandemic policy though, so this is extremely unlikely. Under reaction which is far more damaging has been the mainstay, and continues to be.
Read 4 tweets

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