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Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
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18 Dec, 3 tweets, 3 min read
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 18, 2021

🚨 Unprecedented COVID spike (delta + omicron) in San Diego wastewater forecasts alarming case surge, according to Rob Knight, PhD, @UCSDMedSchool professor: β€œThis is the steepest rise we’ve seen since we began screening."πŸ’©πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ
2/ Prior work we published in @mSystemsJ shows that wastewater estimates of #SARSCoV2 viral genome copies correlated strongly with clinically reported cases by the county, and enabled prediction of new cases up to 3 weeks in advance

πŸ‘‰ journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mS…
3/ So what can you do stay safe this holiday season?

🧫 Have a very, very low threshold for testing
πŸ’‰ Get vaccinated and boosted
😷 Weark a mask indoors
πŸ“² Enable #CANotify (canotify.ca.gov)

Fin.

countynewscenter.com/new-cases-of-o…

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @calonghurst

Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
16 Dec
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 16, 2021

Omicron is here in @SanDiegoCounty. Over 25% of recent COVID (+) tests @UCSDHealth now appear likely to be this new variant (pending final sequencing)

Omicron rapidly overtook delta in south Africa, and we expect the same here
2/ @UCSDHealth will use sotrovimab (VIR-7831) for high risk patients with early Omicron infection based on in vitro studies predicting ↑ effectiveness compared to other mAbs in the setting of all the Omicron mutations (h/t Dr. Shira Abeles)
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
3/ Omicron may present with mild, cold-like symptoms, according to new UK data
cnbc.com/2021/12/16/omi…
Read 4 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
1 Sep
πŸ’₯ NEW DATAπŸ’₯

1/ "Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Highly Vaccinated Health System Workforce" published today in @NEJM details ↓ in vaccine effectiveness against INFECTION among @UCSDHealth employees - from 95%+ in the spring to 65% in July

πŸ‘‰πŸ½ nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2/ Our contact tracing team (led by @DrLucyEHorton) found virutally all known exposures were in the household or community. Few @UCSDHealth employees (mediage age 39) required hospitalization, but each is out 10+ days, creating staffing challenges, as well as additional exposures
3/ Unpublished analysis of cases through 8/26 shows continued ↓ in vaccine effectiveness, with Pfizer at just 49% - one of the reasons that @UCSanDiego has an indoor masking mandate 😷
Read 6 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
26 Jul
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - July 26, 2021

I had hoped to be done with these when I wrote the last one ~100 days ago, but the rate of positive #COVID19 tests @UCSDHealth is back to almost 4%, near the winter surge peak. So here we go again...🧡
2/ Fortunately, the number of patients hospitalized with #COVID19 @UCSDHealth is still relatively low at 22, but the uptick is worrisome, particularly with @SanDiegoCounty hospitalizations >200 again for the first time since March
3/ Of course the most important reason we are not seeing more inpatients with #COVID19 is that some of these new cases are so-called breakthrough infections that are far less likely to be severe or require hospitalization
Read 15 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
16 Jan
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 16, 2021

Are we turning the corner on the surge? Read on to explore hospital, regional, and statewide data πŸ“‰

Plus vaccines, vaccines, and a puppy 🐢
2/ Some good news as case rate data @UCSDHealth is clearly declining this week.

This may be partly a result of the thousands of @UCSanDiego students returning after the holiday break

sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/st…
3/ The 14-day rolling average of positive tests in @SanDiegoCounty and California also seem to have leveled off
Read 17 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
4 Jan
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 3, 2021

Happy new year #TwitterverseπŸŽ‡

Lots to share in the first thread of 2021 🧡

Read on for some thoughts about hospitalization numbers, vaccine timing, and the predicted baby bust 🚼

And two small rewards at the end... πŸ•
2/ @UCSDHealth has hit a temporary equilibrium with census relatively stable ~7 days. Today we have 127 inpatients hospitalized for #COVID19 including 40 in the ICU, 31 on mechanical ventilators, and 7 on ECMO circuits
3/ @SanDiegoCounty hospitalization data shows a similar plateau with 1,591 inpatients across multiple hospitals today and a 7-day rolling average of 1,573 according to @HASDIC data
Read 15 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
27 Jul 20
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - July 26, 2020

Let's talk about #COVID19 contact tracing...almost 27k #COVID19 cases in @SanDiegoCounty, and county staff can NOT keep up. Despite hiring >200 contact tracers, just 10% of cases are now investigated within 24 hours!
2/ Contact tracing works great for sexually transmitted infections, but does not scale well for a pandemic caused by a respiratory disease spread by airborne droplets. So what should we do? Hire more contact tracers?

sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/st…
3/ Recent models show that "minimizing contact tracing delays, for instance with app-based technology, further enhanced effectiveness, with the potential to prevent up to 80% of all transmissions."

Read 7 tweets

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