Good point to revisit this, esp as Frost was already heading for door. If Johnson is setting policy then more accommodating line might stick, but now (as then) big challenge is backbench revolt
Johnson's standing with MPs is clearly less than it was a fortnight ago, so does revolt potential mean he picks a hard Brexiter (and eoukd that person what to get him out of a hole? Or be allowed to make their own policy choices) or are we in 1922 territory?
Track record tells us Johnson would struggle to give up control [sic] of Brexit policy, so finding new minister who is both unimpeachable for ERG types and pliable for No.10 is going to be pretty much impossible: eg Baker has already distanced himself
Maybe he dissolves position altogether in a 'Frosty sorted out all the big stuff' pitch and then farm out role to various others and keep NIP aside for someone ealing to play ball
Gove, under his nations hat?
Whatever happens, Frost leaving early really messes with scope to frame this in any positive light, so much of the damage is already done
All this said, feels like Omicron is more likely to tip party over the line on Johnson and that will certainly be at forefront of most minds in next two weeks
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Frost's op-ed this morning revisits the UK position that the NIP isn't working and negotiations haven't found a solution, so Art.16 remains on the table. But let's parse his comments on the CJEU for a bit
If we follow line that UK wants COP26 out of the way, then next week it likely moment of decision
Negotiations aren't moving, so it's time to sh*t or get off the pot with this
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UK knows it can't leave Art.16 out there much longer, both because it's talked up availability/necessity of its use and because there's already been much delay
Absent any big EU move on NIP (on top of what they already did), UK has to show this isn't stuck in the snow
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The suspension provisions under Art.772 aren't simple or a free-for-all, as you have to make a strong case for their use and you're bound to be proportionate
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By contrast, the general (Art.779) and Part (Art.591/692) provisions on termination don't need any justifications or thresholds, or even to talk about it, so they're much less liable to challenge
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Given that my plan to be on leave while the whole Jersey fishing thing blew over has come to nothing, here's a guide to what the TCA actually says both on access and on disputes
Like much of the rest of the TCA, there's a lot that isn't well-specified. Vessels should 'demonstrate' historic access, but how that works practically isn't clear: what's the benchmark and relevant case-law to draw on? (@chris_huggins any equivalent cases?)
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Also note provisions at end of Art.502, which suggest this was something the drafters thought might well be reworked, so sense of a bodge is evident
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