Given that my plan to be on leave while the whole Jersey fishing thing blew over has come to nothing, here's a guide to what the TCA actually says both on access and on disputes
Like much of the rest of the TCA, there's a lot that isn't well-specified. Vessels should 'demonstrate' historic access, but how that works practically isn't clear: what's the benchmark and relevant case-law to draw on? (@chris_huggins any equivalent cases?)
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Also note provisions at end of Art.502, which suggest this was something the drafters thought might well be reworked, so sense of a bodge is evident
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On disputes, yes there is scope to ramp up remedies to something very substantial, but EU'd have to make case for proportionality, which seems unlikely given size of it all.
And arbitration kicks in straight away, so this won't hang about
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Overall, there's probably enough for this to go to remedies, but I'm not clear those would stick, and process does try to keep it contained, so spillover is minimal
NIP is still the much bigger problem
/end
An update (h/t @StevePeers) to include the end of 506(2) which stops Complainant using general remedies (which a more chunky) to deal with Jersey-related problems, underlining the point that this is a more contained matter than it might appear
Another update (h/t @valentin_schatz) on 506(7), which is actually about being allowed to impose your own sanctions on the other side if the arbitration panel threw out the initial complaint. Just to even it all up.
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This belief has roots in mythology of WA/TCA negotiations, where Johnson Ian view that his erratic behaviour got former through hostile Parliament with some big wins on Protocol
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A cursory look at the various versions of that Protocol will show this wasn't actually the case, but the mythology has stuck
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Let's think a bit about Frost's speech today and the use of threats in negotiation
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To be clear, this is negotiation, given that there is a live process of interaction between EU and UK, both on the narrow issue of making the Protocol work and more generally on the overall relationship
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Threats in negotiation are simply the mirror of promises: things that might be in the future, depending on whether the other side do or don't do the thing you want
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Remember that Art.16 is designed to deal with temporary situations, so it can't be a permanent tool (we'll leave the review and cross-linkage aspects for now), so essentially UK can use it only 2 purposes:
- easing pressure on NI
- raising pressure on EU to renegotiate
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On easing pressure,l on NI, the only limit to disapplication of Protocol is that which is under UK control (ie can't stop EU doing what they do)
That means - at most - full disapplication w/in NI/rUK
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Thought I'd check how much COM Presidents have actually talked about Brexit in #SOTEU, following VdL's complete silence yesterday
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Yes, this is the first #SOTEU that has unambiguously avoided the topic since 2013 (note, no speeches in 2014 or 2019), but 2016 also made no direct reference (although certainly can read entire content that year as repost to #EURef)
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2015 was easily the longest absolute text, reaffirming value of UK membership
2017 was very passing
2018 & 20 were about need to conclude negotiations
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