Given that my plan to be on leave while the whole Jersey fishing thing blew over has come to nothing, here's a guide to what the TCA actually says both on access and on disputes

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic94

Some thoughts too

1/
Like much of the rest of the TCA, there's a lot that isn't well-specified. Vessels should 'demonstrate' historic access, but how that works practically isn't clear: what's the benchmark and relevant case-law to draw on? (@chris_huggins any equivalent cases?)

2/
Also note provisions at end of Art.502, which suggest this was something the drafters thought might well be reworked, so sense of a bodge is evident

3/
On disputes, yes there is scope to ramp up remedies to something very substantial, but EU'd have to make case for proportionality, which seems unlikely given size of it all.

And arbitration kicks in straight away, so this won't hang about

4/
Overall, there's probably enough for this to go to remedies, but I'm not clear those would stick, and process does try to keep it contained, so spillover is minimal

NIP is still the much bigger problem

/end
An update (h/t @StevePeers) to include the end of 506(2) which stops Complainant using general remedies (which a more chunky) to deal with Jersey-related problems, underlining the point that this is a more contained matter than it might appear
Another update (h/t @valentin_schatz) on 506(7), which is actually about being allowed to impose your own sanctions on the other side if the arbitration panel threw out the initial complaint. Just to even it all up.

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More from @Usherwood

18 Oct
Some thoughts on the UK's approach to the NI Protocol and what that might mean

Short version: UK wants to hold it in unstable situation, to avoid wearing costs of Brexit domestically, but this isn't a long-term strategy

1/
Let's start with how to understand UK HMG's approach to things right now

It seems like there are 3 main ways of looking at it

2/
First is the 'ugh' model: HMG doesn't like the Protocol and just wants it changed to something (maybe even anything) different

3/
Read 28 tweets
13 Oct
A guide to the main areas in which the CJEU has a role in the Withdrawal Agreement/Protocol

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic93

1/
In essence, Court's role is to provide definitive rulings on EU law, as it continues to be needed within UK, under terms of rest of treaty

2/
Much of that is transitional, either by nature (e.g. wrapping up existing cases) or design (e.g. time limits on cases on Citizens' Rights)

3/
Read 6 tweets
10 Oct
HMG thinks its aggressive strategy on Protocol is working in getting EU to move, so it's going to continue to push that

Let's think about why this is not the case

1/
This belief has roots in mythology of WA/TCA negotiations, where Johnson Ian view that his erratic behaviour got former through hostile Parliament with some big wins on Protocol

2/
A cursory look at the various versions of that Protocol will show this wasn't actually the case, but the mythology has stuck

3/
Read 12 tweets
4 Oct
Let's think a bit about Frost's speech today and the use of threats in negotiation

1/
To be clear, this is negotiation, given that there is a live process of interaction between EU and UK, both on the narrow issue of making the Protocol work and more generally on the overall relationship

2/
Threats in negotiation are simply the mirror of promises: things that might be in the future, depending on whether the other side do or don't do the thing you want

3/
Read 10 tweets
24 Sep
Since we seem to be having more serious talk about using Art.16, let's just explore how that might work and why it's very unlikely to solve anything

1/
Remember that Art.16 is designed to deal with temporary situations, so it can't be a permanent tool (we'll leave the review and cross-linkage aspects for now), so essentially UK can use it only 2 purposes:
- easing pressure on NI
- raising pressure on EU to renegotiate

2/
On easing pressure,l on NI, the only limit to disapplication of Protocol is that which is under UK control (ie can't stop EU doing what they do)

That means - at most - full disapplication w/in NI/rUK

3/
Read 15 tweets
16 Sep
Thought I'd check how much COM Presidents have actually talked about Brexit in #SOTEU, following VdL's complete silence yesterday

1/
Yes, this is the first #SOTEU that has unambiguously avoided the topic since 2013 (note, no speeches in 2014 or 2019), but 2016 also made no direct reference (although certainly can read entire content that year as repost to #EURef)

2/
2015 was easily the longest absolute text, reaffirming value of UK membership
2017 was very passing
2018 & 20 were about need to conclude negotiations

3/
Read 5 tweets

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