Thread by @Usherwood

Let's kick the tyres on what the UK might do next week on this

tl;dr UK has left itself minimal space to avoid blame, whatever happens

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1458440762908160012

If we follow line that UK wants COP26 out of the way, then next week it likely moment of decision

Negotiations aren't moving, so it's time to sh*t or get off the pot with this

2/

UK knows it can't leave Art.16 out there much longer, both because it's talked up availability/necessity of its use and because there's already been much delay

Absent any big EU move on NIP (on top of what they already did), UK has to show this isn't stuck in the snow

3/

If we assume UK isn't willing to take COM offer on reduced checks as a climbdown path, then main Q is how big to go on Art. 16

4/

Either a minimal action to halt limited part of NIP (e.g. Art.5) as signal of displeasure, but not a full-on assault

Or something much bigger, essentially disapplying entire NIP within NI itself

5/

Minimal route would force EU to rein in response, and would also raise Qs about whether NIP is needed in full, but it also looks a bit half-hearted and queries whether UK isn't implicitly accepting the rest of NIP

6/

You'd not get the big bang that UK sold Art.16 to be to domestic audience, plus multiple implementation problems would remain as long as any part of NIP was in effect

7/

Big bang gets you your big bang, plus the full attention of the EU (plus their entire suite of retaliatory actions, presumably), plus maybe some crisis meetings to let you show how you've brought the EU to the table again

8/

But it also has likely left UK more exposed to legal challenge on use of Art.16 and proportionality of measures.

Plus it'll need to be able to show how much better life is in NI as a result

9/

Removal of GB-NI checks might be helpful, but that'll be offset by uncertainty about NI-EU links, even before any EU retaliatory action

Remember even if UK did have an alternate plan, that can't work unless/until EU buys into it, which isn't likely here

10/

However UK uses Art.16, EU shows no sign of further compromise on NIP, including CJEU role, so negotiations will essentially be about how to reoperationalise existing NIP provisions

EU view is that UK is in weaker position, so won't budge unless it changes its view

11/

This is how EU will seek to withstand being put into difficult position on NI, should UK stop implementation and dare EU to fill gap on checks

EU will apply pressure elsewhere to move UK back to talks

12/

However the UK chooses to play this now, costs loom:
- don't use Art.16 and look weak;
- do use it and invite (potentially v.big) retaliation;
- use it and highlight NIP isn't sole source of problems;
- use it and find EU calls bluff on renegotiating NIP

13/

Best case at this stage for UK looks to be simmering unrest over this, but not overt action, so EU can be blamed for intransigence (as Frost's comments today)

However, Art.16 has been talked up perhaps too much now to be left unused

/end