Scientists have inferred a powerful but unknown volcanic eruption -- larger than VEI 6 -- perhaps 1/2 of the sulfate contribution as Tambora -- to have occurred in December 1808 to begin decade of large global cooling (stratospheric veil).
The paper is easily accessible and read by any history buff. You'll see how important historical accounts are to piecing together ice core evidence even from Antarctica. The 1810s also coincided with the Dalton minimum of very low solar activity. Very tough decade.
Recent paper still calls the Unknown 1809 volcanic eruption a "climatic cold case"
Important to note importance of El Niño or La Niña in modeling the effects of tropical volcanic eruptions.
“The varying degrees of reluctance by different individuals, groups, communities, and nations to respond to or rely on forecasts in order to take advantage of forecast-afforded lead time to prepare effectively for threats that are known to accompany different hydromet hazards.”
"Such hydromet hazards can include floods, flash floods, tornadoes, heatwaves, ice storms, tropical storms, forest and brush fires, dry spells and droughts, disease outbreaks, and ENSO-extreme anomalies of El Niño and La Niña."
20 years ago I firsts started researching "bomb cyclones" and looked at the climatology as well as dozens of extreme examples for case studies.
This bomb would be an epic research case study, nothing else comparable in this ocean real estate.
How did climate change make this unprecedented bomb cyclone much worse and more frequent?
Warming planet means stronger jet stream currently at over 220 mph in Central Pacific.
More moisture for the bomb to use for diabetic heating (ocean flux) + warmer ocean (& atmosphere)
In the North Pacific during cold season from October to March, we typically see 30-40 bomb cyclones. But the recent few extreme cyclones in mid-October are rare & a harbinger of a "new normal" of bombs developing faster and affecting coast w/Category 5 Atmospheric Rivers.
The report blames climate change at every turn for the botched handling of the flood emergency by NYC leadership including the Mayor, who issued a flood emergency 3-hours too late -- who knows how many died b/c of the delay.
NYC sewer system is described as being able to handle 1.5" to 2" rainfall rates PER HOUR before becoming overwhelmed.
When it was built in the 19th Century it was inadequate for the climate back then -- as evidenced by frequent extreme flood events (see NY Times archives)
Bizarre. 30 year old environmental scientist (PhD student in forestry) charged with arson to wildland for starting Fawn Fire in California, and may be a fire bug or serial arsonist.
Seems California has an arson problem (no lightning 🌩)
A 20-year-old Ukiah man was arrested Tuesday on suspicion of intentionally setting a fire that burned homes and forced hundreds to flee the Mendocino County town of Calpella.
Cal Fire investigators have determined the Bridge Fire to be arson. The news comes over two weeks after the fire was sparked in the Auburn State Recreation Area.
Model guidance this afternoon for Hurricane Sam continues to be encouraging for a northward turn over open-ocean.
GEFS 12z ensembles (0.25°) through 180-hours are tightly clustered. Always outliers out of 31 solutions, so we focus on the mean (black line).
Uh oh!
The upgrade/experimental (47r3) HRES version
We cannot definitively say if/when Sam could affect the Northeast US. All we can do is provide probabilities & change them as time goes by. I'd estimate by Monday we will be confident enough in the forecast.
Hurricane Sam is expected to become a Category 4 intense hurricane. Based on estimate of ACE of 35 for the lifecycle, added into previous 2021 storms, so far the season is stacking up to be "average"
Prior to 1995, the North Atlantic was in an "inactive" state with fewer and less intense tropical storms & hurricanes. Since 1995, that has stepped-up & changed dramatically with a doubling of seasonal ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). 🌀
5-years of 2017-2021 = huge ACE 📈
12 out of 18 named storms have had an ACE of less than 2.4
6 named storms (hurricanes): Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry and Sam (will) account for about 90% of the Atlantic ACE (thru Sept)
That's usually the case -- blow through alphabet but only 6/18 do heavy lifting with ACE.