20 years ago I firsts started researching "bomb cyclones" and looked at the climatology as well as dozens of extreme examples for case studies.
This bomb would be an epic research case study, nothing else comparable in this ocean real estate.
How did climate change make this unprecedented bomb cyclone much worse and more frequent?
Warming planet means stronger jet stream currently at over 220 mph in Central Pacific.
More moisture for the bomb to use for diabetic heating (ocean flux) + warmer ocean (& atmosphere)
In the North Pacific during cold season from October to March, we typically see 30-40 bomb cyclones. But the recent few extreme cyclones in mid-October are rare & a harbinger of a "new normal" of bombs developing faster and affecting coast w/Category 5 Atmospheric Rivers.
Scientists call this "weather whiplash" for California going from historical drought to deluge 🌧
"Scientists have long warned that this whiplash would become more common as the consequences of a warming planet continue to intensify."
I've been warming for more than a week about the unprecedented bomb cyclone and atmospheric river. But that's because I have the answer key e.g. advanced weather models. ⚠️🌧
I see the future of climate fueled weather a week or two before most everyone else. 🧐
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Climate activists from Extinction Rebellion & Sunrise Movement are blocking traffic on the FDR during rush hour. These tactics have been used by Insulate Britain in London.
Drivers going to work are not happy with these climate extremists. #COP26
One driver explaining that her 8-year old girl is a straight A student and missing school is going to hurt her -- they are "ruining it for her"
The mother is trying to get to work and worries about getting fired.
The climate activists don't care.
Blocking traffic and shutting down expressways during rush hour will inevitably lead to deaths e.g. emergency vehicles unable to pass, people late/miss medical appointments, and cause traffic crashes.
Climate activists engaging in domestic terrorism is on the increase in U.S.
The report blames climate change at every turn for the botched handling of the flood emergency by NYC leadership including the Mayor, who issued a flood emergency 3-hours too late -- who knows how many died b/c of the delay.
NYC sewer system is described as being able to handle 1.5" to 2" rainfall rates PER HOUR before becoming overwhelmed.
When it was built in the 19th Century it was inadequate for the climate back then -- as evidenced by frequent extreme flood events (see NY Times archives)
Bizarre. 30 year old environmental scientist (PhD student in forestry) charged with arson to wildland for starting Fawn Fire in California, and may be a fire bug or serial arsonist.
Seems California has an arson problem (no lightning 🌩)
A 20-year-old Ukiah man was arrested Tuesday on suspicion of intentionally setting a fire that burned homes and forced hundreds to flee the Mendocino County town of Calpella.
Cal Fire investigators have determined the Bridge Fire to be arson. The news comes over two weeks after the fire was sparked in the Auburn State Recreation Area.
Model guidance this afternoon for Hurricane Sam continues to be encouraging for a northward turn over open-ocean.
GEFS 12z ensembles (0.25°) through 180-hours are tightly clustered. Always outliers out of 31 solutions, so we focus on the mean (black line).
Uh oh!
The upgrade/experimental (47r3) HRES version
We cannot definitively say if/when Sam could affect the Northeast US. All we can do is provide probabilities & change them as time goes by. I'd estimate by Monday we will be confident enough in the forecast.
Hurricane Sam is expected to become a Category 4 intense hurricane. Based on estimate of ACE of 35 for the lifecycle, added into previous 2021 storms, so far the season is stacking up to be "average"
Prior to 1995, the North Atlantic was in an "inactive" state with fewer and less intense tropical storms & hurricanes. Since 1995, that has stepped-up & changed dramatically with a doubling of seasonal ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). 🌀
5-years of 2017-2021 = huge ACE 📈
12 out of 18 named storms have had an ACE of less than 2.4
6 named storms (hurricanes): Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry and Sam (will) account for about 90% of the Atlantic ACE (thru Sept)
That's usually the case -- blow through alphabet but only 6/18 do heavy lifting with ACE.
Interesting lawsuit filed by @JohnStossel against Facebook and its climate fact-checking group "Climate Feedback" for demonetizing his videos after being labeled "misleading". yahoo.com/entertainment/…
The defamation suit centers on a video posted by Stossel on California wildfires that ostensibly blames forest mismanagement as well as climate change. The Climate Feedback group fact-checked a claim he did not make, and dinged his video as misleading & missing context.
The broader question here is how do social media platforms arbitrate "facts" on its platform on contentious scientific or political issues that could cause a journalist or company to lose valuable traffic revenue.