$SPELL is breaking out.

A thread on price action, news, collaborations, and whether I'm bullish or bearish.
$SPELL's most recent dump was largely attributed to inflationary token supply (lots of token rewards for yield farmers).

A few weeks ago, @danielesesta promised to bring token emissions to zero. How's it going?
Pretty well. Emissions have been cut 10% across pools and are down to about 461m $SPELL per week.

At current prices, that's about $8 million worth. Not quite yet 'breaking even' from a protocol revenue perspective, but headed that way.

A long way to go.

Fees are looking great, especially now that we're seeing serious adoption cross-chain.

Over 10% of loans are now originated away from Ethereum (AVAX, FTM, Arbitrum).

I see this driving a lot of revenue going forward as round trip fees to borrow are often $1k on $ETH Image
More activity on alt L1s and L2s will be great for TVL and fees, but at the cost of more fees paid out to liquidity providers inflating supply.

Keep an eye out for emissions on these new protocols: scaling thoughtlessly could put $SPELL in the same situation as a month ago. Image
Three major potential collabs are going on as well:

1. @AndreCronjeTech (founder of $CRV) is hinting at some type of 🐸 collab on FTM
2. @danielesesta is still talking about a $Sushi takeover
3. Dani is going on @UpOnlyTV with @cobie

Next up is a cauldron for borrowing against $ETH at 0%. That will help with:

• TVL
• Stability
• Competition against $DAI

I still see Abra's main value prop as loans against yield-bearing assets. So I'm not a huge fan but I do see the benefits.
For price action, $SPELL has definitely reversed the trend and is strong against a downward-moving market.

Watch out for a knife fight at 2 cents, though. it's been a battleground in the past. Image
Lightning round:

1. $UST cauldron coming on $FTM
2. Up to $4 billion in $MIM
3. Potential Polygon deployment
4. New round of buybacks/distributions just happened
5. Pilot program to allow democratization of cauldrons
I think the price dump humbled the team and I see them running the protocol in a much more dynastic, long-term-thinking way than a month ago.

When it's all green, it's easy to be a hero.

When it's red, you've got to do something. And the team has weathered their first storm.
If you'd like to support this type of in-depth analysis, please do me a few favors!

1. Give me follow: @JackNiewold. I tweet about small-cap alts.
2. Give the first tweet a like or RT, it's linked here👇
And please check out my newsletter! We write in-depth, data-backed research on altcoins like $SPELL.

(we also caught $SPELL in early October)

Link here: cryptopragmatist.com/sign-up-twitte…
Correction: @AndreCronjeTech is the founder of Yearn, not Curve. Misspoke, my apologies.

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More from @JackNiewold

22 Dec
I've officially been redpilled on Fantom ( $FTM )

Here's a thread on:

• Why I think it's undeniably undervalued
• How it could do a 5-10x in the next leg of the bull market

Check it out 👇
Non-ethereum Layer 1s (L1s) have been pumping over the last six months, with $AVAX, $SOL, $LUNA, and $BNB all going crazy.

The L1 you DON'T hear about? Fantom, which has been quietly following in their footsteps at a fraction of the market cap.
What does Fantom accomplish that ETH-killers don't already do?

It scales: Fantom operates on a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), giving it best-in-class time to finality.

It's also compatible with the EVM, so it plays nice with AVAX, BSC, MATIC, and ETH

Read 14 tweets
18 Dec
Anon, you deserve better.

Saturdays are not for binge-watching netflix while hungover.

Saturdays are for Alpha, anon.

Here are five of my favorite articles for gaining an edge in crypto investing:
1. 'Mastering Shitcoins' by @Dan_Jeffries1

The gold standard guide to no-BS buy-and-hold altcoin investing strategies.

I'd recommend this article to anyone just starting out with smaller-cap cryptos.

hackernoon.com/mastering-shit…
2. 'On Reflexivity and Imitation' by @mattigags

Crypto is a game, crypto is a meme.

Only once you realize that can you can figure out how to make money in this industry.

insights.deribit.com/market-researc…
Read 7 tweets
17 Dec
Should crypto investors buy the dip or cut their losses?

While there's a lot of discussion, most of it isn't backed by data.

Here's a thread on what the numbers tell us about altcoins bouncing back and the validity of dip-buying:👇
For simplicities sake, we're looking within market cycles, not from market cycle to market cycle.

So this thread will look at four points in time:

• April 14, BTC ATH (Peak 1)
• July 20, BTC bottom (Trough)
• November 8, BTC ATH (Peak 2)
• December 15, (Present)
First thing to look at: are alts even worth investing in?

Answer is undoubtedly, yes. Alts have beaten BTC from:

• Trough (July) - Present
• Peak 1 (Apr) - Present
• Peak 2 (Nov) - Present
Read 12 tweets
15 Dec
Five bullish thoughts I've had on $SPELL:

(thread) 👇
1. There's definitely a chance that @danielesesta is a manic, anarchistic autocrat and that $SPELL goes to zero.

But if he ends up being crypto's Steve Jobs, his projects could 100x.

Zero or 100x = risk/reward asymmetry.
2. This might be the first memecoin with actual utility.

I'm not sure if that's more or less powerful than something like $DOGE.
Read 9 tweets
15 Dec
Here's why non-Ethereum L1s will win.

(as argued by @zhusu on his podcast Uncommon Core in a conversation with @hasufl)

👇 // thread // 👇
CONTEXT: @zhusu is now seen as a crypto villain after claiming Ethereum has abandoned its users.

This added gas to the Eth mainnet/L1/L2 debate that's been raging for months.

Below is the argument he lays out for the succession of Ethereum by alt L1s, point by point.
I'll do my best to summarize @zhusu's argument in an organized and extremely condensed way.

This will omit, simplify, and rearrange. You should listen to the podcast if you want to know exactly what he thinks.

This is not my opinion (but I'm pretty compelled by the argument).
Read 15 tweets
13 Dec
Let me tell you about something that's happened to me many times since I hit about 5k followers that is both annoying and incredibly unethical:
I'll get a DM from some relatively well-known name on crypto twitter, often anon.

'hey, you should check out x protocol or x small cap, it has a lot of potential'
I get a lot of messages about small caps and they're often interesting and promising.

That's how I find out about a lot of sub-$100m protocols.

So I nearly always spend maybe 30 minutes reading some documentation and seeing if its worth throwing in some money.
Read 8 tweets

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