A thread on the CCI order in the #Amazon#Future case.

Why has CCI fined Amazon Rs 202 crore and put its approval of the deal in abeyance?

▪️ Because, on review, it found Amazon made wrong filings
▪️ Amazon "willfully" omitted to share its actual intent behind the deal.
In my column I argue that

Amazon may have made filing errors/violations & should pay commensurate fine/refile.

But, it is tough to believe that CCI was unaware that Amazon’s deal with Future Coupons was with an eye on Future Retail.

(My column) bloombergquint.com/business/futur…
Rewind to 2019: Amazon buys 49% in Future Coupons (FCPL)

- FCPL was new to coupon biz

- Its key value was as promoter of Future Retail (Big Bazaar, EasyDay etc)

- Via FCPL Amazon got some rights over FRL – namely ROFR, promoter share sale restriction
bloombergquint.com/business/amazo…
In 2019, CCI approves the Amazon – FCPL deal.

In its order CCI acknowledges FRL’s role in the deal and even includes it in the competition assessment.

Read CCI order: cci.gov.in/sites/default/… ImageImage
So what has changed now?

CCI received internal Amazon notes.

CCI says (in brief)

1. Notes show Amazon was mainly interested in FRL.
- This was not disclosed explicitly by Amazon in filings with CCI.
2. Amazon has described the rights in FRL as strategic not protective.

3. Other commercial deals between Amazon & Future Group entities in 2019 were described as independent of the deal.
- That is wrong, says CCI.
Fair enough. Wrong filing deserves penalty/refiling.

But nothing material has changed, is my argument.

Whether you call the rights strategic/ protective/ negative - their nature and scope hasn’t changed.

The terms of the commercial agreements haven’t changed either. Image
CCI should've/would've considered all this in 2019.
Then approved deal.

If it did, then nothing’s changed so on refiling CCI’s verdict would be same as 2019.

If it didn’t, then CCI was being naïve to believe Amazon was interested in coupons not retail.

bloombergquint.com/business/futur…
I hope this helps @SandeepBhusha10

My bad - I should've written the column in a less technical fashion.

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More from @menakadoshi

25 May
#SocialMediaban
I'm puzzled by this frenzy over a potential ban of social media platforms on account of non-compliance with latest Rules.

Significant social media intermediaries (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram etc...) had 3 months to comply with the rules. That period ends today.
The rules themselves say nothing about any BAN.

What they say is - if a social media platform doesn't comply with the Rules then it loses protection under Section 79 of the IT Act, 2000.

Please read for yourself 👇
Simply put - Section 79 of the IT Act protects intermediaries from liability for third party information or data.

For instance - if someone fraudulently seeks donations via tweets, Twitter can't be held responsible unless it knowingly allowed the fraud.

Section 79 👇
Read 7 tweets
16 May
#VaccineStats All You Need To Know

Current domestic vaccine production capacity estimated at 8.5 crore doses.

To rise to 16.7 crore in July with the addition of Sputnik V supply.

As per the centre’s affidavit filed with SC.

Read more at: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
States were asked to procure vaccines only starting May 1.

To vaccinate 18 to 44-year-olds.

Total domestic production in May-July
33.7 crore doses

Centre order: 17.68 crore

States orders: 16 crore
- to get 2 crore in May

Read more: bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
Assume states & pvt hospitals get rest 14 cr doses by mid-Aug.

So far 40 lakh people in 18-44 group have got 1 dose

Target pop: 60 cr

Doses needed: 120 cr
May - mid-Aug: 16 cr

*Imports extra
Dr. Reddy's Sputnik: 25 cr doses. Supply timeline unclear

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
Read 10 tweets
10 May
Target population of18-44 year olds is approx 60 crore. Total jabs needed =120 crore.

Today India vaccinated in that category a grand total of
5,18,479 people.

At this rate....
Just to be clear - the point is the slow pace. Not whether we need to vaccinate all or 80% or 50% of the target group.

Pick any % and do the math. You want to vaccinate only 50%. Fine. That's 60 crore jabs.

Still we are doing just over 5 lakh a day.

#SupplySupplySupply
Here's the supply picture for 45+ (vaccines procured by centre)

States have a somewhat higher balance now.
UP and Gujarat leading.
TN and Maharashtra behind them.

Based on this WB and Kerala have exhausted supplies - among the 7 states to receive central supplies soon.
Read 8 tweets
3 May
26 crore doses = 13 crore people.
Of which 11 crore doses will come over next few months.

Estimated population of 45+ and front line workers etc is 28-30 crore.
So far Bharat Biotech has been small % of supply.
Not for a moment suggesting the producers are to blame.

Just looking at the data.
Read 6 tweets
27 Apr
By the time I'm out of observation it'll have been over 4 hours to get vaccinated.

Some tips

Carry a small umbrella. If a hospital has supplies there will be long lines. Mostly on the road or in unsheltered compounds. It's hot. I reached before 9 and stood in line till noon.
Carry a water bottle. Maybe even a sandwich or some dry fruit if you have senior citizens with you.

Many hospitals are providing wheelchairs for the aged but obviously in limited quantity.

Light clothing, face wipes, hand sanitizer will help you keep your sanity in the sun.
I had to visit two hospitals before a family friend alerted that the hospital she was in had vaccine supplies.
So network with friends and family as the supply situation is very fluid.
Read 9 tweets
24 Apr
The centre's phase 3 vaccine policy allows participation of states and private sector in procurement and delivery of vaccines.

Will this lead to an acceleration of the vaccination programme?

Or does it pass the buck to states, private entities and citizens?

Quick thread...
Former health secretary @sujakrao
says this centre-buys-some- states-buy-some approach will cause more chaos.

It's "preposterous", she says.

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
The new policy raises these questions

- Who will vaccinate whom?
- Who will supply vaccines?
- What about the costs?
- And how long will it take to vaccinate India?

bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
Read 15 tweets

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