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Pierre Lionnet Profile picture
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22 Dec, 10 tweets, 9 min read
Hello Space Twitter. As 2021 s coming to a close, I am looking back at my tweet history, and thought it would be interesting to share the most significant threads I published in 2021. I have gathered them by themes in this thread of threads. 1/
About launch markets and launch costs 2/






About #LEO #constellations markets 3/



About the economics of the #Newspace 4/




threader.app/thread/1403310…
About satellite markets 5/


About the #spaceeconomy in general 6/


linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…
About #SpaceX and #Starlink 7/




About @Astra $ASTR (and @Kemp) 8/

About @momentusspace $MNTS 9/

About @RocketLab finances 10/

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More from @LionnetPierre

Pierre Lionnet Profile picture
20 Dec
After seeing so many "artistic" space market forecasts lying around, and considering that this art form seems not so difficult, I decided to try my hand at it with a forecast on constellations markets. Here is my step by step tutorial applied to real data. 1/
But first the key findings. If ALL constellations announced today eventually secure the funding to deploy in full, the total (additional) satellite demand would be between 40 and 60 B$/year, and the launch demand would be 8B$/year. There would be >16000 sats launched per year. 2/ ImageImage
In other words if ALL the announced constellations eventually happen the total launch market value would double in the next decade, and the value of the satellite market would increase by 50-70%. But is this a credible prediction? 3/
Read 25 tweets
Pierre Lionnet Profile picture
15 Dec
Excuse me @Defis_EU, but what is your source for this ranking? Awaiting for your feedback, allow me to share a few metrics. 1/
For instance when looking at global spacecraft production volume (left), and global mass launched in space by launcher manufacturing region (right), the European space sector is probably in 4th or 5th place. 2/
When considering the volume of institutional demand, again, Europe is in 4th or 5th position. Notice how the governments of China and the USA promote a volume of activity in their domestic industry which is almost one order of magnitude higher than in Europe. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Pierre Lionnet Profile picture
15 Dec
I was sifting through @VirginOrbit investor deck (because I am a masochist obviously) and I came across the 25B$ market projection for "Small-Satellite launch" by 2030. The reference source is "Prophesy Market Insights". So I looked it up on Google. 1/
virginorbit.com/wp-content/upl…
When I first saw the reference in the SEC filing for the merger I thought it was a typo. But when I see it spelt the same way in the investor deck I don't know what to think. Because the term "prophesy market insights" only yields 3 results on Google. 2/
google.com/search?q=%22pr…
So let's assume that it is indeed a typo (if so, it is repeated twice, in two similarly important documents), and let's correct it to "Prophecy Market Insights". This name actually yields a positive result. 3/
prophecymarketinsights.com
Read 15 tweets
Pierre Lionnet Profile picture
13 Dec
@VirginOrbit #SPAC filings reveal the most insane market assessment ever. IDK who these 'Prophesy' guys are, but in 2019 the total launch market was 8B$ in value. The launch market for satellites <500kg (up to 'Mini') was <1B$/year in the past 5 years. 1/
sec.gov/Archives/edgar… ImageImage
I don't know if anybody will be held accountable for such a blatant overestimate of the small satellite launch market value, but luring investors in believing this business is 8B$/year is incredibly dishonest IMHO, particularly in light of the usual mantra of 'reduced costs'. 2/ Image
If that market value was correct, the average price of launching 42t of mini satellites (<500kg) in 2019 would have been close to 200k$/kg. A preposterous value: we know that small launch is expensive, but not THAT expensive! 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Pierre Lionnet Profile picture
19 Nov
What's the cost of a #OneWeb satellite? A thread.
Yesterday at a round table, one of my co-panelists, Chris McLaughlin of @OneWeb reacted to my talk on constellation economics with a statement: "a OneWeb satellite cost 1,2M$". Now, what do the financial statements say?
1/
In order to double check the statement I have pulled down @OneWeb's financial statements and have looked at the value of property (as from March 2021).
oneweb.net/assets/news/me…
2/ Image
The "space component under construction" is worth 1046M$. We also learn that the satellites already in orbit are considered under construction and will not be depreciated 'until sufficient coverage has been created to offer a commercial service'.
3/ ImageImage
Read 22 tweets
Pierre Lionnet Profile picture
27 Oct
@MorganStanley recently issued a report that puts the value of #SpaceX at $100B. Let me start by saying that @MorganStanley disclaims that it may have "conflicts of interests" affecting its "objectivity". It is my opinion that it also affects @MorganStanley's common sense.
1/
The @MorganStanley valuation of SpaceX is based on a series of very peculiar assumptions that are incredibly optimistic (tu put it nicely) from the perspectives of technology evolution, industrial costs and market uptake. Let's review them.
2/
80% of #SpaceX value, is based on #starlink. @MorganStanley assumes that the Starlink system performance will improve by at least two orders of magnitude in 20 years, enabling it to attract 300M subscribers at 20$/month in 2040, and generate billions of free cash after 2030.
3/
Read 15 tweets

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