If you recall, the police in GATTACA has access to Vincent's (the protagonist) eyelash. However, they can't identify him since he is not in any database. 2/5
We already at the point that nearly all US people can be identified via their DNA despite not being in any police database. How? about 1-2% of the US population took at DNA test that is searchable in 3rd party websites such as GEDmatch. 3/5
The police can upload the DNA from a crime scene evidence to these websites to identify a relative of the person of interest (e.g. 2nd cousin). Then, by tracing genealogical routes they can get to "Vincent"
This how they got the Golden State Killer! 4/5 nytimes.com/2018/04/26/us/โฆ
Back in 2018, we showed that if the genomes of 1%-2% of the US population is available via these databases, then virtually anyone in the population is traceable. And this is beyond the fantasy of what GATTACA predicted 20 years ago. 5/5 science.org/doi/10.1126/scโฆ
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Excellent analysis by @IdoIrani about the waning booster effect (for infection) stratified by age group in Israel.
The worrying part: the rate of decline is most age groups is similar to the 2nd jab.
@IdoIrani This tweet is trending. So a few comments 1/2:
1 Data: datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/generโฆ 2. This is a tweet not peer reviewed publication. It is a preliminary analysis with some caveats as described here.
3. The y-axis should be crude VE 4. Some Idiots...
have said that since I am a CEO of a start up and @IdoIrani is a PhD student, the analysis should be disqualified. This is my Google Scholar. Hope it passes your high bar ๐คช. scholar.google.co.il/citations?userโฆ
5-โ. It is a preliminary signal.
Due to popular demand, a thread for the general audience on Molnupiravir, Merck's new treatment for Covid19.
Let's start!
The compound (left) looks like an RNA nucleotide called Cytidine (right) that is found in every cell in nature.
BTW: How do I know it is an RNA nucleotide? You see the two "legs" at the bottom with "OH OH"? If the right leg is OH it is RNA and if it's H, it is DNA. Easy.
The resemblance is nearly perfect except 2 places:
The diff in Blue (isobutylester) is bigger but less important. It's quickly cleaved by an enzyme once the drug is in our body and converted to be identical to a Cytidine.
The "OH" in Red is the magic of this molecule!
Why?
Due to โก๏ธ holiday season, it is hard to get a reliable estimator of R. Previously, I showed that the avg susceptiblity of ISR population (S) is nicely correlated with R. This estimator is not affected by # test but only by # vaxxed and VE.
As a reminder, S(t), the susceptiblity of day t is 1 - ฮฃf_i(t) โขVE_i(t). Where f_i(t) is the % of the population that already took the i-th dose and VE is the efficacy of the dose in day t. Both parameters can be in calculated from MoH public dashboard on a daily basis.
So...
So here is S as a func of time (black) versus smoothed R (red). Both are coorelated.
Now, we don't have good data for R in Sep, BUT due to booster, S is in levels similar to Mar 21 (60%)! At that time, it was enough for R=0.9, so I'm cautionally encouraged that we= heading out๐