Jason L. Salemi, PhD, FACE Profile picture
Dec 23, 2021 14 tweets 11 min read Read on X
My Lord, things change RAPIDLY with #omicron.

And they are not changing for the good.

Your 12/22 #COVID19 update.

#Cases and #Hospitalizations.

As always, Florida-centric with some national context.

Brace yourselves.

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com

1/14
Purview of 7-day avg daily cases over the past 8 wks.

In the first 6 wks in this window, <2000 per day.

Last wk, 2702 per day.

Most recent wk of reported data, 10,904 per day.

# of cases in today's report (20,194) exceeded the WEEKLY TOTAL over any of the past 7 wks.

2/14
To appreciate the rapid rise, here's a map showing change in avg daily cases compared to just 2 weeks ago.

FL - 499% increase (3rd highest: DC, Hawaii)

Detailed #Florida numbers at bottom right of figure.

3/14
FL was lowest in the most recent 7-day avg daily cases not too long ago, after built-up immunity from a terrible Delta surge.

We're now back up to 23rd highest, middle of the pack.

But look at those trajectories in NY, DC, and basically where all those red arrows are.

4/14
Here's the other way to view how pronounced the recent per capita infection rate is (y-axis) compared to how pronounced the recent changes in avg daily cases (x-axis) has been.

I mean look at those % increases for NYC, DC, FL, and HI!

5/14
It's important to remember what you're seeing with the pronounced increase in use of at-home tests.

If there is no follow-up PCR, or illness the drives a person to seek health care, are county/state health depts even learning of those cases?

What about re-infections?

6/14
Either way, it ain't just cases.

Since December 1:

We're up in adults now hosp with confirmed C19 from 977 to 1457. Even adults in the ICU up 61 patients.

Kids not much better, up from 17 to 45.

As expected, new daily admissions also rising, from 160 to 304 in 3 weeks.

7/14
In whom are new confirmed C19 hosp admissions increasing?

These plots show the total admissions over the past 7 days, per 100,000 people, by age group since Dec 1.

As you can see, increases in pretty much every age group, including our most vulnerable (according to age).

8/14
This plot shows how pronounced the recent C19 per capita hospitalization rate is (y-axis) compared to how pronounced the recent changes in avg daily admissions (x-axis) have been.

FL is comparatively in the lowest quartile of states in current rate, but increasing rapidly.

9/14
Finally, this is how avg daily cases (left axis) have tracked w avg daily hospital admissions (right axis) in FL since July 2020.

We compare cases 'today' vs. hosps 5 days later (lagged). So, my graph stops before the last 5 days of the most rapid case increases.

cont'd

10/14
What remains to be seen is the extent to which these two lines continue to track together, or diverge.

Knowing how that case line is increasing, and seeing how hospitalizations tracked cases during #delta, we should all pray for considerable divergence.

11/14
Maybe one bright spot? (and, yes, I'm grasping at straws here)

During December, the % of the US pop optimally immunized is slowly increasing, meaning that newly vax and boosters are outpacing waning immunity from people overdue for boosters.

Still a LONG way to go.

12/14
These metrics are scary, but no state data with stratification by vax or prior infection status. Any luck elsewhere?

@bethlinas @nataliexdean @angie_rasmussen @berthahidalgo @EpiEllie @BillHanage @bhrenton @ashtroid22 @Cleavon_MD @choo_ek @Theresa_Chapple @WhitneyEpi

13/14
These metrics are scary, but no state data with stratification by vax or prior infection status. Any luck elsewhere?

@paimadhu @sarahzhang @firefoxx66 @K_G_Andersen @kakape @Craig_A_Spencer @lucystats @PWGTennant @_stah @gregggonsalves @HelenBranswell @florian_krammer

14/14

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More from @JasonSalemi

Sep 26, 2023
Brief COVID update

When speaking with NPR last week, I said the plateauing of hospitalizations for 3 weeks made me feel like a downturn was coming.

In FL, the data are suggestive of improvements in the # of people being hospitalized w/ COVID.

1/ Image
The state-specific trends in the COVID hospital census since June 1 also suggest we are seeing a recent decrease in FL (dk purple), the US as a whole (black), and a number of states.

Yes, FL still has among the highest rates, but we also have one of the oldest populations.

2/ Image
If we indeed see a prolonged decrease in COVID hospitalization census, many of the largest states, who have been below previous pandemic years, will start their decrease right as they approach (but do not exceed) 2022 rates.

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
May 29, 2023
Sorry for the delay everyone, a lot going on personally. But I have modified my dashboard to accommodate the CDC reporting changes.

My site focuses on:
1) Hospitalization-based county risk levels
2) Detailed hosp trends
3) Deaths

with links out for wastewater, variants, vax

1/
The "Risk Indicators" page is similar to the older page, but the data upon which indicators are based has changed. There are no longer "risk levels" and "transmission levels", rather levels based exclusively on "confirmed" COVID hospital admission rates over the prior 7 days.

2/ ImageImageImageImage
The "Hospitalizations" page has not changed much. Still starts out with a Florida-centric look and then gives a lot of state- and age-specific census and admission numbers, rates, and rankings.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Feb 24, 2023
It's been a while since I've done a #COVID update.

These are national weekly @CDCgov "community levels" based primarily on hospitalization rates.

This past week has been the "best" since April of last year with <1% of the population living in a high-level county.

1/ Image
Of course, this comes with the following caveats according to the CDC, with likely underestimation of levels in Hawaii and Mississippi, and overestimation in several counties in Georgia and Arizona.

2/ Image
Transmission levels are likely to be grossly underreported, but as we look at them over time, are showing modest improvement (LEFT).

This is in agreement with the regional wastewater monitoring data, which also shows improvements over the last 6 weeks (RIGHT).

3/ ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Dec 2, 2022
1/ Updated my #COVID19 dashboard - wanted to do a quick thread on some clearly emerging trends.

covid19florida.mystrikingly.com
2/ Below are adult inpatient hospital census rates for each state since May 1, 2022. Only "confirmed" (as opposed to suspected) COVID hospitalizations are included.

The orange and red coloring suggests recent increases over the past week. Image
3/ But for context, below are the inpatient census stats for adults throughout the pandemic - for most states, we remain well below the worst parts of the pandemic (not that that should be the bar we are trying to avoid). Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 16, 2022
1/ I've continued to see graphics like the one below served as evidence that COVID vaccines do not work.

Why? Because the NUMBER of COVID-19 deaths among vax people is nearly the same (or even more than) among unvaccinated people.

Quick 11-tweet thread on why this is misleading
2/ I'm going to keep this SIMPLE. This is NOT about infection-acquired immunity vs. vax-acquired immunity. This is just about counts vs. rates.

Assume that vax efficacy is 90% in people 65+.

Monthly COVID mortality rates:
- not vaccinated (20 per 100k)
- vaccinated (2 per 100k)
3/ Assume 3 different vax realities among seniors in the US, and assume pop of 50 million.

Vax rates of 5%, 50%, and 95%.

In the figure, under each scenario, I show the vax vs. non-vax distribution of:
1. the population
2. COVID deaths
Read 12 tweets
Oct 14, 2022
@cmzimmer1803 - a few thoughts

1/ We absolutely should be concerned with the changing proportions of variants that are ESTIMATED to be circulating in recent weeks.

Due to their characteristics and increasing make-up of new cases, the pose a threat.
2/ Clearly, part of our genomic surveillance efforts are to have TIMELY information when more concerning variants are increasing in relative prevalence. In this case, it appears we lost some time (I was wondering why those variants were not yet showing up).
3/ BUT, I don't tend to jump to an accusation of something nefarious.

The beginning of the footnote states that variants circulating <1% are grouped into "other". Image
Read 6 tweets

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