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Nate Cohn Profile picture
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23 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I think there's a lot to agree with here, especially if you're still optimistic about BBB's prospects.
The better question is why it feels that Biden's accomplished so little
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
The rescue package really stands out for me in that regard. Doesn't really feel like Biden/Democrats already spent $2tn in party line spending this year, does it?
I don't remember the backstory on why the CTC wasn't made permanent at that point, but that's an example of how it could have done more. Or maybe they could have gotten paid leave in there (framed as making sure people can take off work if they test positive)
Whatever the reason, the rescue package didn't really fulfill any big Democratic policy objectives, and it doesn't really feel like it made huge contributions to improving covid/economy (maybe it did! but I don't see many people arguing it, and conditions still aren't great)
yes, feel! voters don't think biden's accomplished anything, kept his promises, or say he's helped them personally. that may or may not be true, but it's how voters feel

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More from @Nate_Cohn

Nate Cohn Profile picture
19 Dec
Obviously we'll see soon enough, but are we 100.0% convinced Manchin just killed BBB? His statement led with "cannot vote to continue," which sounds like whether to start debate on the current bill (which he was against).
Now, he used some really strong "can't get there" language--so maybe it's the whole thing, not just the House blueprint. But you can also construe his comments to still allow for, say, 1.7bn over 10 years with fully funded programs, as he's implied before. Worth clarifying
After all, he later leveled his long-standing critique of the House bill: it didn't fully fund programs, but instead partially funded a bunch of things.
Perhaps it still leaves the door open for fully funded/prioritized bill, as he's argued over and over
Read 8 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
17 Dec
From a political standpoint, it seems increasingly likely that the main consequence of omicron will be to accelerate the end of the coronavirus crisis/state of emergency
Yes, the short-term effect is a wave of cases, which may or may not increase in hospitalization/deaths (depending on how the lower severity x higher transmissibility equation sorts out).
But even assuming there is a wave of hospitalizations/death, this will be a changed pandemic.
There won't be a fantasy of crushing a highly transmissible variant with the ability to evade vaccines. And at the same time, the risks may seem more acceptable, due to diminished severity, growing immunity and improved treatment options
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
29 Nov
A really staggering share of the replies (*on twitter*, though conspicuously not on any other channel) essentially just assert that the media is singularly responsible for Biden's low approval rating
As best I can tell, this is founded on two basic arguments:
1) Many economic indicators (growth, unemployment) are good, inflation isn't especially bad, therefore perceptions of a bad economy must be driven by poor reporting and an unfair narrative
2) Biden's policies are popular, voters do/should judge policies based on policy, and therefore Biden's inability to claim credit for his popular policies reflects a media failure to give sufficient attention to the substance of his agenda
Read 18 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
27 Nov
A few thoughts on the disconnect between Biden's popular policies and his personal unpopularity nytimes.com/2021/11/27/us/…
TLDR... I think it is worth fully internalizing the century-long pattern of voters a) rewarding parties for presiding over peace/prosperity; b) punishing presidents for enacting ambitious agenda.
The obvious implication: a popular, ambitious policy agenda doesn't do you much good if there isn't normalcy/peace/prosperity, especially if that agenda is not seen as attempting to respond to immediate challenges at hand
Read 11 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
21 Nov
I'm late to this @jbouie piece, but I do think it's worth coming back to a week later to reiterate how odd it is that HR1/FPA, for all their gangly ambition, don't include a republican government-based attack on state legislative gerrymandering
nytimes.com/2021/11/12/opi…
A guarantee-clause based attack might be very different than what you usually hear about on this website.
It would narrowly establish that republican gvt = majority rule = can't draw maps that would thwart majority rule
Only one metric would logically follow from a republican government clause attack: the mean-median gap.
A lot of the usual anti-gerrymandering would be irrelevant in this framework, like commissions, efficiency gap, compactness, communities of interest, proportionality, etc.
Read 7 tweets
Nate Cohn Profile picture
19 Nov
We did a poll of Wisconsin just after the unrest in Kenosha. Biden led by 5, 48-43
It had some pretty interesting findings on the issue was playing out in the race, with a mixed bag for both sides
int.nyt.com/data/documentt…
BLM fav/unfav: 53-42
Who handles protests best? Biden+8
Who handles race relations best? Biden+19
Who handles crime best? Even
Who handles law and order best? Even
What's more important: covid or law and order? COVID +1
On defund, voters opposed it by a huge margin (19% said defund, 40% maintain, 36% increase)
And voters thought Biden supported defund, 45-38 (including 22% of Dems and 38% of nonwhite voters)
They also thought Biden hasn't done enough to condemn rioting, 31% enough 56% not enough
Read 5 tweets

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