Maybe these estimates from @IHME_UW will help Canadians understand the severity of our situation.
From Dec 23-Apr 1, Canada can expect 6M-24M COVID infections.
Most likely number: 15 million infections. Most will be unreported.
covid19.healthdata.org/canada?view=in…
From Dec 23-Apr 1, Canada can expect 6M-24M COVID infections.
Most likely number: 15 million infections. Most will be unreported.
covid19.healthdata.org/canada?view=in…
@IHME_UW Here's a screenshot of the IHME estimates.
From Dec 23-Apr 1, Canada can expect 6M-24M COVID infections.
Most likely number: 15 million infections. Most will be unreported.
From Dec 23-Apr 1, Canada can expect 6M-24M COVID infections.
Most likely number: 15 million infections. Most will be unreported.
Estimated hospital resource use:
Most likely: 1,418 daily hospitalizations, 362 daily ICU admissions, by Feb 24.
Could be as high as 3,269 hospitalizations, 832 ICU admissions, by Feb 13.
Canada's worst day to date: May 9/21: 1,100 hospitalizations, 271 ICU admissions.
Most likely: 1,418 daily hospitalizations, 362 daily ICU admissions, by Feb 24.
Could be as high as 3,269 hospitalizations, 832 ICU admissions, by Feb 13.
Canada's worst day to date: May 9/21: 1,100 hospitalizations, 271 ICU admissions.
IHME estimates of new COVID-19 deaths in Canada from now to April 1/22.
Somewhere between 10,000-31,000 deaths.
Somewhere between 3K-15K of these deaths will be reported.
Remember, outside Quebec, only ~half of COVID-19 deaths are reported.
Watch QC closely as we go forward.
Somewhere between 10,000-31,000 deaths.
Somewhere between 3K-15K of these deaths will be reported.
Remember, outside Quebec, only ~half of COVID-19 deaths are reported.
Watch QC closely as we go forward.
Finally, if vaccine protection against severe disease has dropped from 90% to 70%, as early South African reports suggest, these future hospitalization and death estimates will be higher.
You'll also note that getting every last person vaccinated, boosted, and ensuring 80% of people wear masks will collectively reduce future severe outcomes significantly.
What's the most important way we can slow spread so that we can get all of this in place?
Social distancing.
What's the most important way we can slow spread so that we can get all of this in place?
Social distancing.
I have no idea any more how to explain to people what will happen if we don't modify our behaviour NOW.
Every single person's decisions about this matter. Some of us can NOT socially distance because of work, caregiving, health needs. But MANY of us can.
PLEASE do it NOW.
Every single person's decisions about this matter. Some of us can NOT socially distance because of work, caregiving, health needs. But MANY of us can.
PLEASE do it NOW.
We need to buy time to ensure new medications are available, to get people vaccinated, boosted, wearing the best masks they can.
If our healthcare workers all get infected too, we are in deep, deep trouble.
Please help us buy time. PLEASE stay home.
If our healthcare workers all get infected too, we are in deep, deep trouble.
Please help us buy time. PLEASE stay home.
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