Thread by @MoriartyLab

Canada, Canadian region estimated FUTURE severe COVID-19 outcomes, as of Dec 17, 2021

🔵Deaths, ICU admissions, hospitalizations
🔵Vaccine-preventable, breakthrough, total

These are numbers estimated if entire population as of July 1, 2021 is exposed.
🧵
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

1. Data sources, methods are at bottom of linked spreadsheet

2. Estimated vaccine-preventable and breakthrough severe outcomes from July 1, 2021 to present have been subtracted from estimated future totals

3. Estimated future deaths, ICU admissions and hospitalizations are based on age-specific OECD rates for the ALPHA strain, which at this point appears likely "milder" than Omicron.

I know many Canadians now think that Omicron is mild. Please see threads about this linked below.

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1475061938010865665?s=20

https://twitter.com/roby_bhatt/status/1474339868947980300?s=20

https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1474618742869053442?s=20

https://twitter.com/roby_bhatt/status/1474339885054144516?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1474622816339304449?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1474456748576714756?s=20

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1474078578891538442?s=20

ON reported 10K new cases today (likely hugely underestimated). Based on info in tweet above, rest of Canada likely similar--so, probably 24K new detected cases/day.

Now at least quadruple that (under-reporting): probably 100K new cases/day, at least.

Based on recent est. Omicron doubling time in Canada), we'll likely be at 1.6M new cases in the coming week, or 4% of entire Canadian pop infected.

Dec 26: 100K new
Dec 27: 135K new
Dec 28: 165K new
Dec 29: 200K new
Dec 30: 270K new
Dec 31: 340K new
Jan 1: 400K new

If spread doesn't slow down, by Jan 4, 8% of pop will be infected, by Jan 7, 16% of pop will be infected, by Jan 10, 32% of pop will be infected, by Jan 13, 64% of pop will be infected, by Jan 16 all of the Canadian population will be infected.

Here's hoping the reproduction rate has slowed considerably since the most recent pre-holiday estimate of ~3 days.

Here's also hoping we're not missing 75% of cases. If we're capturing all of them, that will slow infection of most of the population a bit--by maybe a week.

To be clear--we won't see infection of 100% of pop immediately, even on these timelines. Infections will likely spread faster among unvaccinated people. And there are people who will be able to avoid infection. But on a pop level we're certainly heading for 100% damn fast.

The timing of this Omicron wave could not be worse for Canada, because people were already travelling, planning to see family, and are paying less attention to news during an absolutely critical time when we need to be slowing spread.

Also, I really want people to understand that these estimates of future severe outcomes assume that vaccines used in Canada retain 90% protection against severe outcomes.

South Africa reported a drop to 70% protection against severe outcomes. If so, numbers could be 3X higher.

My main goal right now, in the absence of timely action and communication from governments during the holiday period is to convince people that our behaviours in the coming holiday week are crucial.

We may not hear the messaging we need to hear right now: If you can, #StayHome

Finally, I'm placing this information at the end of the thread intentionally, so that people don't automatically ignore it because they think it's fear-mongering:

Canada can still see more than 75,000 future COVID-19 deaths.

Please, PLEASE take this seriously.

/fin

broke thread, sorry. Here's rest of it:

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1475238143280529418?s=20

Correction to estimated case numbers above. Should be cumulative incidence doubling every 3 days.

Dec 26: 100K, 0.3% Cdn pop
Dec 29: 200K, 0.6% pop
Jan 1: 400K, 1.2% pop
Jan 4: 800K, 2.5% pop
Jan 7: 1.6M, 5% pop
Jan 10: 3.2M, 8.4% pop
Jan 13: 6.4M, 17% pop
Jan 16: 12.8M, 34% pop

Jan 19: 25.6M, 67% pop
Jan 21st ish: 38M, 100% pop

This is if we do NOT slow spread immediately. If we're not under-detected cases by 4-fold 100% of population would be reached a week or so later.

Also note that doubling time will likely increase (slow) as infections spread to more vaccinated and boosted older populations. Most cases up to Dec 4 were still in people 40 and younger. There's a good chance this changed/will change from Xmas to new year's.

FYi estimated future deaths, ICU admissions, hospitalizations in spreadsheet at top of thread are based on 40% of vaxxed pop getting infected, assuming vaccines provide 40% protection against infection.

I'm assuming virus spreads much faster than we get boosters to those at risk. I know a few days ago I said everyone eligible for boosters should get them, but in provinces where they've opened up to lower risk, people at higher risk are having access issues. We should prioritize.

have to stop doing this tired. Assuming that 60% of vaccinated population will be infected, not 40% (i.e. with 40% protection).

Protection against Omicron infection may well be less than 40% for double-vaxxed, but factoring in boosters returning protection vs infection to 75%, and not having a lot of info about boosters delivered in specific age groups in different provinces, just assuming 40% protection.