1/ Netherlands ASMR mortality update - now up to week 47 (end November).
Left: perception and panic (unadjusted crude mortality)
Right: Age Standardized Mortality (reality)
2/ ASMR By age group and sex. Problem or not?
All of the 2021 apparent excess in tweet 1 on the left is the illusion of demographics and mortality in the 75+ age population which is getting bigger and bigger every year.
Standardized, the statistical illusion disappears.
2/ All of the Balkan countries show the spike in season 2020, so July 2020 - June 2021.
Interesting.
We may need to expand on the hypothesis laid out by @hmatejx to understand this as Croatia really isn't known for having done hard lockdowns like the Slovenian neighbours.
1/ The main stream media @TheEconomist and also @OurWorldInData continue their "Our Age Confounded Useless Data" game combined with excess metrics which mislead.
2/ I don't have 26M followers @TheEconomist, but I do know that using Age Standardized Mortality Rates is the only meaningful metric unless you want to show that Nigeria with a low excess is better than living in Italy (life expectancy 82 years).
But here an example: Denmark
3/ The @TheEconomist is here suggesting that Denmark with an 46 week ASMR 2021 of 8.48 is better than Norway at 6.66.
30% higher ASMR is a bad.
Having a lot of deaths at a stable baseline is better than having variance at ultra low baselines?
The OWID website is one of the worst. After almost a 2 years, there still aren't any age de-confounded ASMR, and the coverage time series only include misleading aggregated figures. OWID delivers one Simpson's paradox after another.
2/ Here some input for @redouad. OWID likes to fear porn with unadjusted death figures. Even better with cumulated "total deaths" (sounds scary right?) over several years.
1/ NL, AUT, SWE, NO, CH age adjusted mortality update.
I have added data up to week 47 now (28th November).
Left column: crude mortality (normalized to total population).
Right column: ASMR using NL2011 std. population.
AUT and NL go up, not NO, CH, SWE.
2/ The mortality increase in NL and AUT is not related to vaxx. The vaxx is at the same time not visible as lifesaving in all cause as C19 is not the driving parameter, neither is the vaxx.
We likely see the price to pay for permanent lockdowns, social isolation, fear, etc.
3/ Let's dig deeper than AMSR: now we plot mortality by age bin population. This is more precise in order to understand what is going on.
No surprise, the old are dying. Do people not know this? And are we now "bin counting" 90+ people to make lockdown panic? Stop this please.