Folks, here's a recording of our latest Money Concepts episode -- where we discussed "Inflation" for an hour and a half.

If that's too long for you, no worries. Just scroll down. We've created a few ~2 minute "highlights" you can listen to.

callin.com/?link=tURmKhwt…
Highlight #1

The purpose of investing is NOT to grow our money.

It is to grow our *after tax purchasing power*.
More on this idea of growing after-tax purchasing power -- from Warren Buffett's 1980 Berkshire letter:
Highlight #2

Sir Steven Wilkinson shared with us his recollections of the 1970s, when he and his family lived through high inflation in the UK.

Astute observations on how governments and businesses tend to behave during inflationary times:

(h/t @SKNWilkinson, @goodandprosper)
Highlight #3

LIFO vs FIFO accounting during periods of high inflation
Highlight #4

Series I bonds: one way to protect part of our capital from inflation
More on Series I bonds:

Here's an excellent overview written by my friend, @rationalwalk:

rationalwalk.com/the-case-for-u…
Note:

I incorrectly said that Dec 31'st was the last date to buy $10K worth of these bonds for 2021.

The last date is actually Dec 29'th.

For more: freep.com/story/money/pe…
Highlight #5

Which businesses are immune to inflation?

ONLY those that can respond to inflation by:

a) raising prices, AND
b) earning higher returns on capital.

This is a "3 part" highlight.

Part 1 of 3:
Part 2 of 3:
Part 3 of 3:
For more insight, I recommend reading Warren Buffett's wonderful Fortune Magazine article: How Inflation Swindles The Equity Investor.

Buffett wrote this in 1977. It remains relevant today, and is one of the best pieces I've ever read on inflation.

Link: tilsonfunds.com/BuffettInflati…
Highlight #6

The impact of inflation on debt
Highlight #7

Basic macro-economics: the "negative feedback loop" between interest rates and inflation
Highlight #8

Businesses that have more control over their environment tend to be better protected against inflation.

It's far better to own a business that can *control* its environment than to own a business that's at the *mercy* of its environment.
Highlight #9

One of the great defenses, if you're worried about inflation, is not to have a lot of silly needs in your life.

-- Charlie Munger

That's the last one. I hope you enjoyed this highlights reel!
About Money Concepts

We're a virtual investing club. Our goal is to help each other become better investors.

We meet Sundays at 1pm ET via @getcallin, to discuss all things investing.

Join us. Get the app. Subscribe. Tell your friends.

It's FREE.

callin.com/?link=DftUtOET…

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More from @10kdiver

28 Dec
Teaching People The Basics Of Investing

A short thread featuring my friend @Gautam__Baid, and his approach to this difficult problem
Suppose your friend Bob is new to investing.

He has just opened a Robinhood account.

But he has no knowledge of the fundamental concepts of investing -- how to analyze companies, how to pick stocks, etc.

Over time, Bob wants to learn these things.

How would you help him?
Well, there are tons of good resources that Bob can use to pick up the basics of investing.

There are excellent books.
Buffett's shareholder letters.
Lots of great YouTube videos.
Blogs.
Twitter threads.
Podcasts.
Etc.
Read 14 tweets
18 Dec
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

This is a joint thread; Sahil Khetpal (@skhetpal) and I wrote it together.

In this thread, we'll walk you through various "Return Ratios" -- ROA, ROE, ROIC, ROCE, etc.

This will help you judge business quality better, and hence invest better.
2/

Businesses generally work like this:

a) Raise *capital* -- equity, debt, float, etc.

b) Turn this capital into *assets* -- new products, software, inventory, factories, etc.

c) Generate *cash* from these assets. And,

d) Over time, *return* cash back to owners.
3/

*Owners* of such businesses have 2 main concerns:

One: How much cash do they have to PUT IN?

And,

Two: Once they PUT IN this cash, how much cash can they TAKE OUT over time?

The *less* they have to PUT IN, and the *more* they can TAKE OUT, the happier they are.
Read 34 tweets
11 Dec
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll walk you through a simple way to compare the effectiveness of *dividends* vs *share buybacks*.
2/

In a capitalist society, businesses are supposed to work their magic like so:

Step 1. Get capital from owners.

Step 2. Earn a return on that capital through business operations. And,

Step 3. Over time, give back MORE capital to owners than what they put in.
3/

Publicly traded companies have 2 main ways of doing Step 3 (giving back money to the owners):

(a) Dividends, and (b) Share Buybacks.

Which is better?

Well, that depends on the circumstances.

And this thread will help you evaluate these circumstances.
Read 29 tweets
4 Dec
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll walk you through some key concepts related to Survival, Resilience, and Aging:

- Conditional Lifetime Probabilities,
- The Force of Mortality,
- The Lindy Effect, and
- Taleb's Turkey.

(h/t @nntaleb)
2/

Suppose a restaurant, on average, stays open for 8 years before shutting down.

And suppose Bob has a restaurant -- that has been open for 3 years now.

How much longer should we expect Bob's restaurant to stay in business?
3/

We may be tempted to answer: 5 years.

After all, restaurants last 8 years on average. And Bob is already 3 years in. So, on average, he has 8 - 3 = 5 years left, right?

Not necessarily.

This 8 - 3 = 5 logic may lead us very far off the mark.
Read 24 tweets
20 Nov
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Escape Velocity -- a super interesting physics concept that can also teach us some valuable life lessons.
2/

Let's start with 2 everyday physics facts.

Fact 1. If we toss a ball up into the air, it comes back down after a while.

Fact 2. If we put in some more effort and send the ball up faster, it still falls back down. But this time, it travels further and takes longer.
3/

So, here's a question:

Is it possible to toss our ball up with *such* high speed that it NEVER comes back down?

That is, our ball somehow escapes Earth's gravity and wanders off into outer space.

Kinda like @SahilBloom's (alleged) grand slam:
Read 36 tweets
6 Nov
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll share with you some thoughts on portfolio optimization.

This will help you understand: a) the basic math of optimization, and b) under what circumstances it makes sense to choose investments that maximize CAGR/IRR.
2/

The idea for this thread came from a poll that I conducted earlier this week:
3/

Here's the poll question I asked:

Suppose we have a stock that multiplies in value by a factor of N.

But it takes N years to do so.

What's the *maximum* rate of return (CAGR) that we can get from such a stock -- assuming we are free to choose whatever N we like?
Read 34 tweets

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