Emmanuel Macron is taking an each-way bet on Omicron not being too much of a health calamity just before the French election in April. No new lockdowns or curfews but restrictions on the size of large indoor and outdoor gatherings and mandatory home working three days a week 1/
After emergency cabinet & health defence councils today, PM Castex warned that number of cases in Fr could more than double to 250K a day in a week or so. All the same,  the Govt is rejecting – for now-  the kind of draconian new restrictions imposed by some of its neighbours 2/
Instead, the waiting period for third booster jabs will again be reduced from 4 months to 3. 3 days home working will be mandatory for office jobs. New, relaxed rules on isolation by contacts will be introduced to prevent the avalanche of new cases from closing country down 3/
Overall, it’s a big gamble. With less than four months to the Presidential election, Macron is reluctant to try the patience of the nation and damage the economic recovery with a new lockdown. But he may have his hand forced if Omicron swamps French hospitals next month ENDS
Covid-19 : le recours au télétravail rendu obligatoire pour tous les salariés qui le peuvent, à raison de trois jours par semaine au minimum (lemonde.fr)

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More from @Mij_Europe

20 Dec
Although she's a future leadership contender with a strong incentive to tack right on Europe & go in hard, after chats with both sides I think @trussliz assuming EU brief *could* actually be quite positive for UK-EU relations 1/
It's not obvious she'll be beholden to Right if PM is ditched next year. Of all credible runners & riders, only @pritipatel will adopt a more hardline EU stance. But her stock has fallen as Tories think she's failed on migration. @RishiSunak @Jeremy_Hunt would be pragmatic 2/
.@nadhimzahawi wd focus on vaccines; @sajidjavid on Covid. This isn't an exhaustive list, but it begs the question: who would the €sceptics vote for, if not Truss? If she's too extreme, she'll also alienate MPs she needs to get into runoff, who basically want Protocol sorted 3/
Read 9 tweets
18 Dec
Quick thread on @DavidGHFrost resignation 1/

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Regardless of what Mail on Sun says, the fact is as political situation around @BorisJohnson disintegrates, the EU dropped down PMs list of priorities - now it's about survival, Covid, inflation/cost of living etc. EU/Protocol/ECJ/Art 16 are a very long way down list 2/
This left Frost exposed - as he was pursuing hardline approach in Bxl - the domestic ground shifted under his feet. Lack of progress on divergence agenda - & therefore tax - were also issues. Frost didn't think Global Britain could succeed unless UK broke out from EU's orbit 3/
Read 6 tweets
16 Dec
Macron presented himself to Fr people last night as a safe pair of hands rather than the impatient white-collar revolutionary of 2017. In 2h TV i/view, he refused (just) to declare himself a candidate next Apr, but painted himself as a wiser & more cautious man than 5 yrs ago 1/
The interview on TF1 - Fr most watched TV channel - was clearly aimed at chunk of Fr electorate exhausted by Covid pandemic & does not want to see the country turned upside down again next year. He evidently regards the pandemic as a potential vote-winner, rather than a threat 2/
Apologising for remarks  which infuriated people early in his mandate – such as making a distinction between people who were “successful” and those who were “nothing” - Macron said that he had learned to govern with more “indulgence and kindness” 3/
Read 11 tweets
15 Dec
What is the outlook for UK-EU relations in 2022? That has become a much more difficult question to answer of late, because it really hangs on one question - the fate of @BorisJohnson 1/
The outlook was clearer one month ago - the relationship would have hit a new low as UKG triggered Article 16 & EU partially terminated UK-EU trade deal. But then came along @OwenPaterson & new allegations of Tory sleaze - serving as a brake on hostilities with EU 2/
As one Tory MP told me at the time: “Article 16 has to be done from a position of strength but Boris is suddenly in a much weaker state. He could have done it at conference when he was riding high. The whole party would have rallied behind him. Now it would look desperate.” 3/
Read 25 tweets
9 Dec
.@EmmanuelMacron may not be the leader of France after April but he spoke today as if he planned to be the leader of Europe for the next decade or more 1/
The French President just gave a big press conference on Europe. Let's be clear: This was not an narrow look/agenda for French EU Presidency in the first half of next year. This was a plan to completely transform the EU. Contrary to my expectations, there was lots of big stuff 2/
He set out a sweeping agenda for EU reform – ranging from abolishing the 3% of GDP Maasticht “ceiling” on national budget deficits to reconstructing the Schengen free movement zone by  strengthening external borders and creating new policies on asylum and migration 3/
Read 14 tweets
7 Dec
Within a few years of Viktor Orban's election victory in 2010, such was the contempt he paid to democratic norms in parliament, that Hungarian opposition figures routinely referred to the country as Absurdistan. It has only got worse since then 1/

abouthungary.hu/speeches-and-r…
Take this bizarre latest missive which went on line yesterday as part of Orban's “Samizdat” entreaties. It is, purportedly, Orban's assessment of Merkel's time as CX. When she leaves “a piece of the life of Central Europe” will go with her. “We understood her, she understood us”
“For years, Merkel and I had to endure together the hardships of being in opposition”. But soon both were in power, and then “We managed the financial crisis in 2010, we were partners in the fight to keep the European Union together, and together we watched helplessly.. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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