Share this page!

Lyn Alden Profile picture
Twitter logo
27 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
This chart shows the change in broad money supply per capita compared to the change in beef prices over 5-year rolling periods:
Meanwhile, the past 25 years had a big disconnect between M2 and CPI:
The question, in an imperfect world with imperfect metrics, is M2 or CPI the better metric between the two?

CPI changes its basket of goods and hedonic offsets over the calculation period. Meanwhile, M2 is more consistent but struggles with an opaque financial situation.
The answer is that CPI did better at capturing things that can be easily outsourced or that are subject to Moore's law type of effects, while M2 did better at capturing assets & consumables higher in the value stack, like houses, equities, meat, and healthcare.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Lyn Alden

Lyn Alden Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @LynAldenContact

Lyn Alden Profile picture
28 Dec
People with demanding jobs spend their time in a few key ways:

-Advance at work in the tactical sense.

-Research and have random conversations and insights that boost your tactical work more dramatically.

-Recharge your batteries, refill your spirit, amplify your passion, etc.
All three (and more) are necessary.

Long-term productive people seem to be aware of all three, encourage tactical achievements, but also allow for subjective and longer-term insights, while acknowledging passions and family time.
In other words, work is important, but it has various components (completing TPS reports vs finding new insights), and is recharged by passion (family, hobbies, nature, life, etc).

To dominate at work requires a passion that exists outside of work, for one reason or another.
Read 4 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
28 Dec
Stablecoins will become increasingly regulated, only allowed to hold nominally risk-free assets, if they want to connect to regulated, legal institutions.

This includes cash and Treasuries. As such, stablecoins are a way to monetize Treasuries.
In other words, if stablecoins are backed in part by Treasuries, and the stablecoin market cap continues to grow, this is a new source of demand for US government debt.

Cash and Treasuries of various durations get mixed together in a basket, blurring the line between them.
USDC, GUSD, and USDP have already gone this route.

USDT is the one that holds other types of assets as well, which are not backed by the full faith and credit of the US government.

Entities that don't conform to regulations are basically eurodollars- offshore dollars.
Read 9 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
9 Dec
Rent inflation is stabilizing for now after a big 2021 surge:
apartmentlist.com/research/natio…
Back in 2020 when a lot of folks were expecting ongoing disinflation, that was actually the bottom and a big inflationary surge was forming.

In late 2021 or early 2022 when a lot of folks are expecting permanent high inflation, that may be a local top for a period.
Inflation in the 1940s and 1970s was cyclical as well.

US job market, European energy, and global supply chains are still inflationary. US fiscal cliff is disinflationary.

Unclear what China will do for the lead up to their late-2022 national congress. Probably reflationary.
Read 4 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
2 Dec
A lot of evidence shows that our lifestyles of looking at papers, screens, and phones indoors all day contributes to widespread deterioration in eyesight.

Now imagine if we work from home more, drive less, and wear VR goggles for hours a day...
And then of course we had the inverse correlation between technology and depression. Hunter gathers have rather rough lives but what we think of as depression is nearly nonexistent among them. They have plenty of exercise, decent diet, and frequent flow state.
Modern society requires that we make increasingly conscious choices to go outside, get exercise, and look into the distance, so that we can get the benefits of technology without the physical and mental deterioration that often comes with it.
Read 7 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
23 Nov
Blue line is 10-year Treasury yields. Orange line is the annualized inflation-adjusted "real" rate of return if you bought a 10-year Treasury note that year and held it until maturity.

Bonds got killed on a real basis in all three inflationary decades (1910s, 1940s, 1970s).
If you compound -4% annual inflation-adjusted returns over a decade, you lose a third of your purchasing power on consumer goods by the end of the period.

And during that period, you probably lose more than that in terms of your purchasing power of prime capital goods.
So the bond market is "smart money" in that it does a good job of grasping tactical acceleration/deceleration moves, but isn't smart enough to avoid 30-40% losses of purchasing power over the course of a decade on three separate occasions.

So we get big disconnects sometimes:
Read 6 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
11 Nov
All of my equity research over the past 4-5 years can basically summarized with Anakin here.
Most of the other asset classes (besides a few like bitcoin) have been even less attractive than expensive stocks, so the stocks just kept going up. That valuation expansion will end eventually, maybe in 2022 or who knows.

For lack of good money, everyone monetized other assets.
So I've been overweight equities, trying to avoid the silly ones, and letting it all run. Now eventually, everyone will be so piled into equities that it'll stop working. Individual stocks and sectors will become more separated.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @LynAldenContact has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @LynAldenContact!

Read all threads by @LynAldenContact

:(