#Bitcoin $BTC - Short-term view
1/4
As mentioned in the previous longer thread, I want to see a decisive break of the 52-54k level.

Yesterday, selling came back exactly at 52k. Pretty weak PA, also considering how strong equities have performed these days. Image
2/4
The break of the downtrend was also not comparable to the last two ones, where we went for an almost 25% uninterrupted move from the breaks of the downtrend + a spike in volume on the moves up (See volume oscillator) Image
3/4
49k needs to hold as higher low in line with previous local highs before the breakout. If 49k goes, I could easily see 47k (SR flip of downtrend) or 45k (prev. lows) incoming.
4/4
AS mentioned, looks not like the previous breakouts and quite weak PA compared to strong equities. Speaks for further consolidation and not a quick break of 52-54k.

On the other side, this PA might also not mean too much due to holiday season and overall low volume.

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More from @2210ft

30 Dec
#Bitcoin $BTC Update - What's next?

1/8 🧵

Short TA update first
✅Reclaim of support line.

Believe it or not, this is a better spot than 49k on Dec 22, as we are now still above the major downtrend (d1)

Bull div building. We could at least see a small bounce here soon. Image
2/8

However, the real trend is difficult to predict, I think we saw a lot of reshuffling from Asian investors / tax related selling.

Huobi BTC balance down 200k coins since May, Dec alone 30k, while Binance up ca. 30k and total market balance flattish. ImageImageImage
3/8
I'm sure there was not only reshuffling of coins but also selling from China (others have shown the selling during the Asian sessions over past weeks)
Then you have a huge option expiry tomorrow and it's still holiday season.
Read 9 tweets
24 Dec
#Bitcoin $BTC update - HTF picture
1/25
The recent move above 51k was encouraging as we have left the major downtrend.

What is next?

A) TA Update
B) S2N Update
C) On-chain metrics
D) Derivatives/Leverage
F) Macro

🧵 Image
2/25
1) TA Update

The chart above uses a little "trick". Instead of using the a often quite noisy 4h-1d candlestick chart I sometimes use a rolling 24h chart based on a 4h chart that nicely reduces the noise and provides a clear picture of market structure.
3/25

There is a nice break of the recent downtrend that was supported by a break in momentum trend as shown by S2N ratio in the second chart. The change in momentum often leads the price change as also seen in July. Pinned tweet shows it called the bottom correctly in July.
Read 26 tweets
23 May
#Bitcoin update
1/12
The key question is whether we are still in a bull market.

I took a different look at this question in terms of a new way of measuring cycle lengths through my S2N Ratio model.

Thread 👇
2/12
What I have done in the chart is to graph the S2N ratio on the chart to indicate the key levels. The red line, is where the S2N reaches 35, i.e. price is 35 vol units away from 200 week MA.
3/12
Touching the red lines is where market peaks happened in the past. This was clearly not the case this time and I mentioned it before and this is also not the point I want to repeat again today.
Read 12 tweets
23 May
Thoughts on my strategy and reflecting on psychology.
1/6
On Friday I sold out my ALTs and some BTC futs. Now c. 40% cash, 40% BTC spot and 20% non crypto. Capital preservation is prio 1,2 and 3 and I rather look like an idiot if the market turns but I want to protect my capital.
2/6
I still strongly believe this is NOT the end of the bull market (will publish some analysis later on).

I'm sharing this info, as I made an interesting psychological observation of myself. Actually it is interesting how this step cleared my mind.
3/6
Obviously, while bullish, I was also concerned seeing my P&L eaten away. It was stressing me to be honest. After I decided on the step above and executed it I immediately felt relieve and my mind cleared.
Read 6 tweets
21 May
#Bitcoin update
Reflections on May 19
1/15
The target of my analyses is always aimed at two questions:

1. Are we still in a macro bull cycle
2. If 1 = yes, are we at an intermediate cycle that calls for adding or potentially reducing risk, i.e. are we overbought / oversold.
2/15
I believe that we will see further cycles in the market and I rather want to reduce some risk at the end phase of a bull market and put cash aside and add at depressed levels instead of watching the decline and holding through it.
3/15
Also, as the crypto space is developing rapidly, you regularly find interesting projects and then Question 2 is relevant because if you buy in a bull market at all you want to buy at an attractive point in terms of R/R.
Read 15 tweets
16 May
#Bitcoin update
1/6
Long-term holder selling slowing is still signaling a high confidence as evidenced by Coin Days Destroyed.
2/6
Historical peaks saw this metric exploding higher into the blow off tops - this has not happend this time, so this makes a macro top unlikely.

Now comes the interesting part:
3/6
In past cycles, when the metric recovered from the overheated zone to where we are now i) the average drawdown from the previous high was c. 60%.
Read 6 tweets

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