🔵QC (and Nova Scotia) currently doing 2X more per capita testing than any other province
🔵QC reports severe COVID outcomes MUCH faster and more completely than other provinces
Key take home message: What is happening in Quebec is almost certainly happening in other provinces.
Outside QC we just know less because reporting is slow and/or less complete.
Per cap cases likely similar in QC, other provinces except *maybe* NL, PEI
1. Data sources, methods are at bottom of linked spreadsheet
2. Estimated vaccine-preventable and breakthrough severe outcomes from July 1, 2021 to present have been subtracted from estimated future totals
3. Estimated future deaths, ICU admissions and hospitalizations are based on age-specific OECD rates for the ALPHA strain, which at this point appears likely "milder" than Omicron.
I know many Canadians now think that Omicron is mild. Please see threads about this linked below.
Here's are estimates of severe BREAKTHROUGH COVID-19 outcomes, by age group, in Canada or comparable OECD countries.
Remember, risk of these outcomes are 7-9X higher in UNVACCINATED people.
These are based on the age-specific OECD infection fatality rates for Alpha (so quite conservative), and assume that vaccine protection vs severe outcomes in double-vaxxed people has dropped from 90% to 70% for Omicron, as per recent South African reports.
They're estimates, but remember that Alpha was "milder" than Delta, and that monoclonal antibodies we use for treatment also look like they're taking a big hit with Omicron. These estimates may be revised up/down, but probably not by huge amounts. They're decent ballparks.
As for doubly vaccinated Canadians 40 and older, especially if your last shot was more than 6 months ago, here are your risks, assuming that vaccine protection from severe outcomes has fallen from 90% to 70% with Omicron.
Omicron may reduce vaccine protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes from 90% to 70%.
If true, this could result in more than 100,000 breakthrough deaths in Canada if everyone is infected.
Get boosted ASAP. Not this weekend. As fast as you can, especially people 40+.
Most of us cannot understand how fast Omicron cases are growing. They will double every 3 days once Omicron is dominant--which will be by the end of this week in Ontario.
Don't just get your booster. IMMEDIATELY start taking precautions to reduce risk of exposure and spread.
And if you're UNVACCINATED, I beseech you--get your first dose immediately. Hospitalizations and deaths will rise exponentially after cases.
If you're 40 and older and unvaccinated, you have a 1 in 17 chance of hospitalization with COVID. You have no time left to wait. PLEASE.