Federal and provincial leaders of Newfoundland and Labrador,

If you don't act now, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

2,900 COVID-19 hospitalizations
800 ICU admissions
900 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Please tag your provincial and federal political leaders.

I will cover every province, territory and public health region of larger provinces.

Please feel free to use the data in this spreadsheet to inform your political leaders of the stakes for your community.
Federal and provincial leaders of Prince Edward Island,

If you don't act now, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

700 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Nova Scotia,

If you don't act now, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

6,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,700 ICU admissions
1,700 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux du Nouveau-Brunswick,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois, les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

6 000 hospitalisations COVID-19
1 600 admissions aux soins intensifs
1 700 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Federal and provincial leaders of New Brunswick,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

6,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,600 ICU admissions
1,700 deaths

Inaction is unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux du Québec,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois, les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

46 000 hospitalisations liées au COVID-19
13 000 admissions aux soins intensifs
11 000 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Federal and provincial leaders of Québec,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

46,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
13,000 ICU admissions
11,000 deaths

Inaction is unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de l'Abitibi-Témiscamingue,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois, les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

900 hospitalisations COVID-19
200 admissions aux soins intensifs
200 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux du Bas-Saint-Laurent,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois, les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

1 500 hospitalisations COVID-19
400 admissions aux soins intensifs
400 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de la Capitale-Nationale,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois, les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

3 000 hospitalisations COVID-19
700 admissions aux soins intensifs
700 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de Chaudière-Appalaches,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois, les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

2 600 hospitalisations COVID-19
600 admissions aux soins intensifs
600 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de la Côte-Nord,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois, les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

500 hospitalisations COVID-19
100 admissions aux soins intensifs
100 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de l'Estrie,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois, les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

2 200 hospitalisations COVID-19
500 admissions aux soins intensifs
500 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de la Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

600 hospitalisations COVID-19
200 admissions aux soins intensifs
200 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de Lanaudière,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

2 500 hospitalisations COVID-19
600 admissions aux soins intensifs
600 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux des Laurentides,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

3 200 hospitalisations COVID-19
800 admissions aux soins intensifs
700 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de Laval,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

2 000 hospitalisations COVID-19
500 admissions aux soins intensifs
400 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de Mauricie-Centre-du-Québec,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

3 600 hospitalisations COVID-19
900 admissions aux soins intensifs
900 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de la Montérégie,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

7 500 hospitalisations COVID-19
1 800 admissions aux soins intensifs
1 800 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de Montréal,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

8 600 hospitalisations COVID-19
2 000 admissions aux soins intensifs
2 100 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux du Nord-du-Québec,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

180 hospitalisations COVID-19
40 admissions aux soins intensifs
40 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux de l'Outaouais,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

2 100 hospitalisations COVID-19
500 admissions aux soins intensifs
500 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Dirigeants fédéraux et provinciaux du Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean,

Si vous n'agissez pas, au cours des 2 prochains mois les gens que vous représentez pourraient connaître

1 700 hospitalisations COVID-19
400 admissions aux soins intensifs
400 décès

L'inaction est inacceptable.
Federal and provincial leaders of Ontario,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

93,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
25,000 ICU admissions
25,000 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Algoma,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

800 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Brant,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

900 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Chatham-Kent,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

700 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Durham,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

4,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,200 ICU admissions
700 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Eastern Ontario,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Grey-Bruce,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,500 COVID-19 hospitalizations
400 ICU admissions
400 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Haldimand-Norfolk,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

700 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Haliburton,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,800 COVID-19 hospitalizations
500 ICU admissions
500 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Halton,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

3,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,000 ICU admissions
600 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Hamilton,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

4,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,100 ICU admissions
800 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Hastings-Prince Edward,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Huron Perth,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

700 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Kingston KFLA,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Lambton,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
300 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Leeds Grenville Lanark,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Middlesex London,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

2,800 COVID-19 hospitalizations
800 ICU admissions
500 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Niagara,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

3,300 COVID-19 hospitalizations
900 ICU admissions
700 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of North Bay-Parry Sound,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Northwestern ON health unit,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

600 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Ottawa,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

5,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,500 ICU admissions
1,000 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Peel,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

9,800 COVID-19 hospitalizations
2,900 ICU admissions
1,800 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Peterborough,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Porcupine health region,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

500 COVID-19 hospitalizations
100 ICU admissions
100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Renfrew,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

800 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Simcoe Muskoka,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

3,800 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,100 ICU admissions
700 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Southwestern ON health unit,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
300 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Sudbury,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,100 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Thunder Bay,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

900 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Timiskaming,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

300 COVID-19 hospitalizations
100 ICU admissions
100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Toronto,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

21,600 COVID-19 hospitalizations
5,300 ICU admissions
5,500 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Waterloo,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

3,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
900 ICU admissions
600 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Wellington,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,700 COVID-19 hospitalizations
500 ICU admissions
300 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Windsor-Essex,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

2,600 COVID-19 hospitalizations
800 ICU admissions
500 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of York,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

7,800 COVID-19 hospitalizations
2,300 ICU admissions
1,500 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Manitoba,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

6,300 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,700 ICU admissions
1,400 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Interlake-Eastern,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

700 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Northern MB,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
50 ICU admissions
15 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Prairie Mountain,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

900 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Southern MB,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,30 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Winnipeg,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

3,500 COVID-19 hospitalizations
800 ICU admissions
800 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Saskatchewan,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

6,600 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,800 ICU admissions
1,400 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Central SK,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

800 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Far North SK,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
60 ICU admissions
10 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of North SK,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

900 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Regina,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,100 COVID-19 hospitalizations
300 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Saskatoon,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,900 COVID-19 hospitalizations
500 ICU admissions
400 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of South SK,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations
400 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Alberta,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

24,500 COVID-19 hospitalizations
6,800 ICU admissions
5,100 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Calgary,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

8,500 COVID-19 hospitalizations
2,000 ICU admissions
1,600 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Central AB,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

4,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,000 ICU admissions
800 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Edmonton,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

7,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,600 ICU admissions
1,400 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of AB North health region,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

3,400 COVID-19 hospitalizations
800 ICU admissions
500 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of AB South health region,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

2,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
500 ICU admissions
400 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of British Columbia,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

33,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
9,300 ICU admissions
7,600 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of BC Fraser,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

11,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations
3,000 ICU admissions
2,400 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of BC Interior,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

7,100 COVID-19 hospitalizations
2,000 ICU admissions
1,600 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Northern BC,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

1,700 COVID-19 hospitalizations
500 ICU admissions
200 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Vancouver Coastal,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

7,400 COVID-19 hospitalizations
2,000 ICU admissions
1,800 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and provincial leaders of Vancouver Island,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

5,900 COVID-19 hospitalizations
1,600 ICU admissions
1,300 deaths

Silence and inaction are unacceptable.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Federal and territorial leaders of the Yukon, NWT and Nunavut,

If you don't act, in the next 2 months the people you represent may experience

600 COVID-19 hospitalizations
200 ICU admissions
100 deaths

The people you represent need you to advocate.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

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More from @MoriartyLab

28 Dec
Quebec COVID-19 hospitalization data to Dec 23

🧵

First: Why all Canadians should be following QC:

🔵QC (and Nova Scotia) currently doing 2X more per capita testing than any other province
🔵QC reports severe COVID outcomes MUCH faster and more completely than other provinces
Key take home message: What is happening in Quebec is almost certainly happening in other provinces.

Outside QC we just know less because reporting is slow and/or less complete.

Per cap cases likely similar in QC, other provinces except *maybe* NL, PEI
Quebec hospitalization data to Dec 23, from @INSPQ.

Reporting from Dec 24 on slow/incomplete, so only going to Dec 23.

All links to source data here, in case you doubt numbers I'll show in next tweets.

inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donne…

inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donne…

inspq.qc.ca/covid-19/donne…
Read 19 tweets
26 Dec
Canada, Canadian region estimated FUTURE severe COVID-19 outcomes, as of Dec 17, 2021

🔵Deaths, ICU admissions, hospitalizations
🔵Vaccine-preventable, breakthrough, total

These are numbers estimated if entire population as of July 1, 2021 is exposed.
🧵
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
1. Data sources, methods are at bottom of linked spreadsheet

2. Estimated vaccine-preventable and breakthrough severe outcomes from July 1, 2021 to present have been subtracted from estimated future totals
3. Estimated future deaths, ICU admissions and hospitalizations are based on age-specific OECD rates for the ALPHA strain, which at this point appears likely "milder" than Omicron.

I know many Canadians now think that Omicron is mild. Please see threads about this linked below.
Read 27 tweets
23 Dec
Maybe these estimates from @IHME_UW will help Canadians understand the severity of our situation.

From Dec 23-Apr 1, Canada can expect 6M-24M COVID infections.

Most likely number: 15 million infections. Most will be unreported.

covid19.healthdata.org/canada?view=in…
@IHME_UW Here's a screenshot of the IHME estimates.

From Dec 23-Apr 1, Canada can expect 6M-24M COVID infections.

Most likely number: 15 million infections. Most will be unreported. Image
Estimated hospital resource use:

Most likely: 1,418 daily hospitalizations, 362 daily ICU admissions, by Feb 24.

Could be as high as 3,269 hospitalizations, 832 ICU admissions, by Feb 13.

Canada's worst day to date: May 9/21: 1,100 hospitalizations, 271 ICU admissions. Image
Read 8 tweets
18 Dec
Here's are estimates of severe BREAKTHROUGH COVID-19 outcomes, by age group, in Canada or comparable OECD countries.

Remember, risk of these outcomes are 7-9X higher in UNVACCINATED people.
These are based on the age-specific OECD infection fatality rates for Alpha (so quite conservative), and assume that vaccine protection vs severe outcomes in double-vaxxed people has dropped from 90% to 70% for Omicron, as per recent South African reports.
They're estimates, but remember that Alpha was "milder" than Delta, and that monoclonal antibodies we use for treatment also look like they're taking a big hit with Omicron. These estimates may be revised up/down, but probably not by huge amounts. They're decent ballparks.
Read 54 tweets
18 Dec
Unvaccinated Canadians 40+, I am DESPERATELY worried about you.

1 in 18 of you who get COVID-19 will be hospitalized. 1 in 59 will end up in ICU. 1 in 78 will die.

Nearly 24,000 of you will die before this epidemic ends. 32,000 will end up in ICU. 107,000 will be hospitalized.
You can check your personal risk in your province and health region at the link here.

I beg you. I care about your life--it matters a lot. The people who love you care about you. Please, please, PLEASE protect yourselves.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
As for doubly vaccinated Canadians 40 and older, especially if your last shot was more than 6 months ago, here are your risks, assuming that vaccine protection from severe outcomes has fallen from 90% to 70% with Omicron.
Read 11 tweets
16 Dec
Omicron may reduce vaccine protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes from 90% to 70%.

If true, this could result in more than 100,000 breakthrough deaths in Canada if everyone is infected.

Get boosted ASAP. Not this weekend. As fast as you can, especially people 40+.
Most of us cannot understand how fast Omicron cases are growing. They will double every 3 days once Omicron is dominant--which will be by the end of this week in Ontario.

Don't just get your booster. IMMEDIATELY start taking precautions to reduce risk of exposure and spread.
And if you're UNVACCINATED, I beseech you--get your first dose immediately. Hospitalizations and deaths will rise exponentially after cases.

If you're 40 and older and unvaccinated, you have a 1 in 17 chance of hospitalization with COVID. You have no time left to wait. PLEASE.
Read 4 tweets

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