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29 Dec, 5 tweets, 5 min read
COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 29, 2021

1/ Y-axis changed just in time for a record high 638 positive tests (16% positivity rate) and a record high >10% 7-day rolling average @UCSDHealth
2/ We are beginning to see a spike in #COVID19 hospitalizations @UCSDHealth, which reflects infections from early or mid-December

👉🏻 cbs8.com/article/news/h…
3/ Virtually all hospitalizations @UCSDHealth for #COVID19 are still for delta variant; SEARCH Alliance data show that 30-35% of @SanDiegoCounty infections continue to be delta.
searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi…
4/ With over a hundred @UCSDHealth team members confirmed with #COVID19 just yesterday - more than 10% of the employee infections for the entire year - we are increasingly worried about staffing in some areas
5/ Nobody wants to implement the new @CDCgov crisis guidelines for healthcare worker staffing - let’s hope we don’t have to🤞🏻

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More from @calonghurst

Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
31 Dec
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 31, 2021

Remember 2 weeks ago when the wastewater signal predicted an "unprecedented" COVID surge? This is what it looks like @UCSDHealth today 📈

Unroll for NYE predictions for January (bad) and 2022 (good) 🔮

Image
2/ Based on the steep rise and fall of the omicron surge in South Africa, many are predicting the same here. I am less optimistic because the @SanDiegoCounty surge is still ~25% delta, which will drive a longer duration with more hospitalizations 🏥

👉 searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi… Image
3/ The San Diego COVID surge is still ↑ with @UCSDHealth positivity rates at unprecedented levels, and @SDCountyHHSA reporting almost 6,000 (!) new cases yesterday. And we know this undercounts home testing...
👉 sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hh… Image
Read 9 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
27 Dec
COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 27, 2021

1/ As predicted, the omicron variant continues to drive a huge surge in infections with over 14% of @UCSDHealth tests returning (+) the last few days, driving our 7-day rolling average to a record new high for the entire pandemic🦠
2/ We have not seen an impact on hospitalization @UCSDHealth yet, although this is always a lagging indicator. We do expect to see patients with omicron (especially unvaccinated patients) admitted for COVID in the coming days and weeks
3/ The majority of COVID cases diagnosed @UCSDHealth have been patients who are vaccinated, and many are boosted. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely the booster dose is providing additional benefit against omicron infection - we are analyzing our data now and will know more soon
Read 7 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
16 Dec
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 16, 2021

Omicron is here in @SanDiegoCounty. Over 25% of recent COVID (+) tests @UCSDHealth now appear likely to be this new variant (pending final sequencing)

Omicron rapidly overtook delta in south Africa, and we expect the same here
2/ @UCSDHealth will use sotrovimab (VIR-7831) for high risk patients with early Omicron infection based on in vitro studies predicting ↑ effectiveness compared to other mAbs in the setting of all the Omicron mutations (h/t Dr. Shira Abeles)
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
3/ Omicron may present with mild, cold-like symptoms, according to new UK data
cnbc.com/2021/12/16/omi…
Read 4 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
1 Sep
💥 NEW DATA💥

1/ "Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Highly Vaccinated Health System Workforce" published today in @NEJM details ↓ in vaccine effectiveness against INFECTION among @UCSDHealth employees - from 95%+ in the spring to 65% in July

👉🏽 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2/ Our contact tracing team (led by @DrLucyEHorton) found virutally all known exposures were in the household or community. Few @UCSDHealth employees (mediage age 39) required hospitalization, but each is out 10+ days, creating staffing challenges, as well as additional exposures
3/ Unpublished analysis of cases through 8/26 shows continued ↓ in vaccine effectiveness, with Pfizer at just 49% - one of the reasons that @UCSanDiego has an indoor masking mandate 😷
Read 6 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
26 Jul
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - July 26, 2021

I had hoped to be done with these when I wrote the last one ~100 days ago, but the rate of positive #COVID19 tests @UCSDHealth is back to almost 4%, near the winter surge peak. So here we go again...🧵
2/ Fortunately, the number of patients hospitalized with #COVID19 @UCSDHealth is still relatively low at 22, but the uptick is worrisome, particularly with @SanDiegoCounty hospitalizations >200 again for the first time since March
3/ Of course the most important reason we are not seeing more inpatients with #COVID19 is that some of these new cases are so-called breakthrough infections that are far less likely to be severe or require hospitalization
Read 15 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
16 Jan
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 16, 2021

Are we turning the corner on the surge? Read on to explore hospital, regional, and statewide data 📉

Plus vaccines, vaccines, and a puppy 🐶
2/ Some good news as case rate data @UCSDHealth is clearly declining this week.

This may be partly a result of the thousands of @UCSanDiego students returning after the holiday break

sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/st…
3/ The 14-day rolling average of positive tests in @SanDiegoCounty and California also seem to have leveled off
Read 17 tweets

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