1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 31, 2021

Remember 2 weeks ago when the wastewater signal predicted an "unprecedented" COVID surge? This is what it looks like @UCSDHealth today ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Unroll for NYE predictions for January (bad) and 2022 (good) ๐Ÿ”ฎ

2/ Based on the steep rise and fall of the omicron surge in South Africa, many are predicting the same here. I am less optimistic because the @SanDiegoCounty surge is still ~25% delta, which will drive a longer duration with more hospitalizations ๐Ÿฅ

๐Ÿ‘‰ searchcovid.info/dashboards/omiโ€ฆ
3/ The San Diego COVID surge is still โ†‘ with @UCSDHealth positivity rates at unprecedented levels, and @SDCountyHHSA reporting almost 6,000 (!) new cases yesterday. And we know this undercounts home testing...
๐Ÿ‘‰ sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhโ€ฆ
4/ Manual contact tracing cannot keep up โ†’ please enable automated exposure notification today!

#CANotify is alerting almost 8 people for every positive test entered over the last 7 days

๐Ÿ‘‰ canotify.ca.gov
5/ Another way to look at COVID rates is with true asymptomatic screening tests in healthy outpatients. Our 7-day average @UCSDHealth is ~3.5%, which suggests at least 1 in 28 apparently healthy San Diegans are carrying #SarsCOV2

6/ Hospitalizations are increasing across San Diego already with over 500 people hospitalized with #COVID19 for the first time in months. I expect more people will hospitalized than last summer, but am optimistic that winter '22 will be lower than winter '21 because vaccines ๐Ÿ’‰
7/ @CAPublicHealth is worried enough about hospital staffing that they issued an All Facilities Letter (AFL) late last night with new staffing guidelines for COVID positive employees ๐Ÿ˜จ

cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHCQ/โ€ฆ
8/ On a brighter note, March will mark 2 years of the pandemic, and we will be through this latest surge. I believe the @WhiteHouse and @WHO will use this anniversary to announce COVID is endemic. ๐Ÿ”ฎ
9/ Many will test positive in the coming weeks, and this @washingtonpost article has good advice.

Stay safe, stay masked, and #GetVaccinatedNow

Fin.

washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12โ€ฆ

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More from @calonghurst

29 Dec 21
COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 29, 2021

1/ Y-axis changed just in time for a record high 638 positive tests (16% positivity rate) and a record high >10% 7-day rolling average @UCSDHealth
2/ We are beginning to see a spike in #COVID19 hospitalizations @UCSDHealth, which reflects infections from early or mid-December

๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿป cbs8.com/article/news/hโ€ฆ
3/ Virtually all hospitalizations @UCSDHealth for #COVID19 are still for delta variant; SEARCH Alliance data show that 30-35% of @SanDiegoCounty infections continue to be delta.
searchcovid.info/dashboards/omiโ€ฆ
Read 5 tweets
27 Dec 21
COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 27, 2021

1/ As predicted, the omicron variant continues to drive a huge surge in infections with over 14% of @UCSDHealth tests returning (+) the last few days, driving our 7-day rolling average to a record new high for the entire pandemic๐Ÿฆ 
2/ We have not seen an impact on hospitalization @UCSDHealth yet, although this is always a lagging indicator. We do expect to see patients with omicron (especially unvaccinated patients) admitted for COVID in the coming days and weeks
3/ The majority of COVID cases diagnosed @UCSDHealth have been patients who are vaccinated, and many are boosted. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely the booster dose is providing additional benefit against omicron infection - we are analyzing our data now and will know more soon
Read 7 tweets
16 Dec 21
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 16, 2021

Omicron is here in @SanDiegoCounty. Over 25% of recent COVID (+) tests @UCSDHealth now appear likely to be this new variant (pending final sequencing)

Omicron rapidly overtook delta in south Africa, and we expect the same here
2/ @UCSDHealth will use sotrovimab (VIR-7831) for high risk patients with early Omicron infection based on in vitro studies predicting โ†‘ effectiveness compared to other mAbs in the setting of all the Omicron mutations (h/t Dr. Shira Abeles)
biorxiv.org/content/10.110โ€ฆ
3/ Omicron may present with mild, cold-like symptoms, according to new UK data
cnbc.com/2021/12/16/omiโ€ฆ
Read 4 tweets
1 Sep 21
๐Ÿ’ฅ NEW DATA๐Ÿ’ฅ

1/ "Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Highly Vaccinated Health System Workforce" published today in @NEJM details โ†“ in vaccine effectiveness against INFECTION among @UCSDHealth employees - from 95%+ in the spring to 65% in July

๐Ÿ‘‰๐Ÿฝ nejm.org/doi/full/10.10โ€ฆ
2/ Our contact tracing team (led by @DrLucyEHorton) found virutally all known exposures were in the household or community. Few @UCSDHealth employees (mediage age 39) required hospitalization, but each is out 10+ days, creating staffing challenges, as well as additional exposures
3/ Unpublished analysis of cases through 8/26 shows continued โ†“ in vaccine effectiveness, with Pfizer at just 49% - one of the reasons that @UCSanDiego has an indoor masking mandate ๐Ÿ˜ท
Read 6 tweets
26 Jul 21
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - July 26, 2021

I had hoped to be done with these when I wrote the last one ~100 days ago, but the rate of positive #COVID19 tests @UCSDHealth is back to almost 4%, near the winter surge peak. So here we go again...๐Ÿงต
2/ Fortunately, the number of patients hospitalized with #COVID19 @UCSDHealth is still relatively low at 22, but the uptick is worrisome, particularly with @SanDiegoCounty hospitalizations >200 again for the first time since March
3/ Of course the most important reason we are not seeing more inpatients with #COVID19 is that some of these new cases are so-called breakthrough infections that are far less likely to be severe or require hospitalization
Read 15 tweets
16 Jan 21
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 16, 2021

Are we turning the corner on the surge? Read on to explore hospital, regional, and statewide data ๐Ÿ“‰

Plus vaccines, vaccines, and a puppy ๐Ÿถ
2/ Some good news as case rate data @UCSDHealth is clearly declining this week.

This may be partly a result of the thousands of @UCSanDiego students returning after the holiday break

sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/stโ€ฆ
3/ The 14-day rolling average of positive tests in @SanDiegoCounty and California also seem to have leveled off
Read 17 tweets

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