Thread by @calonghurst

1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 31, 2021

Remember 2 weeks ago when the wastewater signal predicted an "unprecedented" COVID surge? This is what it looks like @UCSDHealth today 📈

Unroll for NYE predictions for January (bad) and 2022 (good) 🔮

https://twitter.com/calonghurst/status/1472343038164824064

2/ Based on the steep rise and fall of the omicron surge in South Africa, many are predicting the same here. I am less optimistic because the @SanDiegoCounty surge is still ~25% delta, which will drive a longer duration with more hospitalizations 🏥

👉 searchcovid.info/dashboards/omi…

3/ The San Diego COVID surge is still ↑ with @UCSDHealth positivity rates at unprecedented levels, and @SDCountyHHSA reporting almost 6,000 (!) new cases yesterday. And we know this undercounts home testing...
👉 sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hh…

4/ Manual contact tracing cannot keep up → please enable automated exposure notification today!

#CANotify is alerting almost 8 people for every positive test entered over the last 7 days

👉 canotify.ca.gov

5/ Another way to look at COVID rates is with true asymptomatic screening tests in healthy outpatients. Our 7-day average @UCSDHealth is ~3.5%, which suggests at least 1 in 28 apparently healthy San Diegans are carrying #SarsCOV2

https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1476708941186830339

6/ Hospitalizations are increasing across San Diego already with over 500 people hospitalized with #COVID19 for the first time in months. I expect more people will hospitalized than last summer, but am optimistic that winter '22 will be lower than winter '21 because vaccines 💉

7/ @CAPublicHealth is worried enough about hospital staffing that they issued an All Facilities Letter (AFL) late last night with new staffing guidelines for COVID positive employees 😨

cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHCQ/…

8/ On a brighter note, March will mark 2 years of the pandemic, and we will be through this latest surge. I believe the @WhiteHouse and @WHO will use this anniversary to announce COVID is endemic. 🔮

https://twitter.com/calonghurst/status/1469794623031808000

9/ Many will test positive in the coming weeks, and this @washingtonpost article has good advice.

Stay safe, stay masked, and #GetVaccinatedNow

Fin.

washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12…